EUR/USD lost some ground last week as positive economic news worldwide eclipsed the uncertainty for a solution to the Greek sovereign debt debacle. The week began with the rate trading lower after making its weekly high of 1.3221 on Monday after French President Sarkozy announced it would unilaterally impose a 0.1% tax on bank transactions beginning in August. Also on Monday, Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos rejected a proposal by Germany for the EU to take over Greece’s budget for national sovereignty. On Tuesday, the rate continued falling as 25 of 27 EZ countries agreed to a fiscal compact at the EU summit in Brussels. The compact, which requires signing nations to add balanced budget rules into their constitutions, would cap annual structural deficits to 0.5% of GDP upon which an automatic correction mechanism would be triggered. Economic data for Tuesday included U.S. CB Consumer Confidence, at 61.1, versus an expected print of 68.2, and German Unemployment Change, declining by -34K, significantly higher than the -8K that was expected, also the EZ Unemployment Rate held steady at 10.4%. Wednesday saw the rate trade higher after making its weekly low of 1.3025 after U.S. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change came out showing the U.S. economy had added 170K new private sector jobs, versus 189K expected, with the previous number significantly revised lower from 325K to 292K, also out was U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI, which came out at 54.1, versus 54.6 expected. The pair consolidated somewhat lower on Thursday after U.S. Initial Jobless Claims came in at 367K versus 373K expected, and in testimony to the House by the Fed’s Bernanke, who stated, “Globally, economic activity appears to be slowing, restrained in part by spillovers from fiscal and financial developments in Europe. The combination of high debt levels and weak growth prospects in a number of European countries has raised significant concerns about their fiscal situations,” On Friday, the rate was largely unchanged from Thursday, after U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls came out showing the economy had added 243K jobs in January, versus 150K that was expected, and the U.S. Unemployment Rate dropping to 8.3% from 8.5%. EUR/USD went on to close the week at 1.3145, showing an overall loss of -0.4% from its previous weekly close.

USD/JPY lost marginally last week as Japan reported mixed economic data and Japan’s finance minister Azumi urged the BOJ to “respond by taking firm measures” to stem the rise in the Yen. The week began with the rate trading lower after making its weekly high of 76.77 after Japanese Manufacturing PMI came out at 50.7, versus a previous reading of 50.2, and Japanese Household Spending increasing by +0.5% y/y versus an expected decline of -0.1%. Also out on Monday was Japanese Preliminary Industrial Production showing a gain of +4.0% m/m, versus an expected rise of +2.8%. On Tuesday, the pair continued its decline after a lower than expected U.S. CB Consumer Confidence number and despite Japanese Housing Starts dropping -7.3% y/y, versus a decline of -1.4% that was expected. Wednesday saw the rate consolidate after making its weekly low of 76.03 as the United States reported a lower than expected ADP Non-Farm Employment Change number and Japanese Average Cash Earnings declined by only -0.2% y/y, edging the consensus of a -0.3% drop. On Thursday, the pair consolidated slightly higher after Japanese finance minister Jun Azumi stated that, “Yen buying has strengthened, led by short-term and speculative moves on the back of expectations for low interest rates in the U.S. until 2014,” he added that, “I would like the BOJ to take account of economic conditions and various factors in deciding policy, including quantitative easing.” The rate then traded sharply higher on Friday after a positive U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls number, bring the rate to close at 76.55, showing an overall loss of -0.2% for the week.

GBP/USD gained ground last week as the UK reported better than expected economic numbers. The rate began the week trading higher after making its weekly low of 1.5653 on Monday as the United States reported Personal Income had risen more than expected in December, rising by +0.5% m/m, versus +0.4% expected, while U.S. Personal Spending came out with a flat reading, versus +0.2% expected. On Tuesday, Cable traded higher after the UK GfK Consumer Confidence Survey came out at -29, versus an expected reading of -31, while UK Net Lending to Individuals rose only +0.4B, versus a rise of +1.2B expected. Wednesday saw the pair make its weekly high of 1.5881 as the UK reported Manufacturing PMI had increased to 52.1 from 49.7, with a consensus for a 50.1 print. Also out was UK Nationwide HPI, which declined by -0.2% m/m as anticipated. On Thursday, the rate dropped somewhat after UK Construction PMI came out at 51.4, versus an expected 52.8, and the United States reported a positive Initial Jobless Claims number. The rate consolidated slightly higher on Friday after the release of a positive U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls number and lower U.S. Unemployment rate, bringing Cable to close at 1.5814, showing a gain of +0.5% overall for the week.

AUD/USD had substantial gains last week as risk assets were strongly favoured over the Greenback and Australia reported mixed economic news. The week began with the pair trading higher after making its weekly low of 1.0596 on Monday after the United States reported a higher than expected Personal Income number. The rate reversed and began trading higher on Tuesday after the Australian NAB Business Confidence Survey showed a reading of 3, versus a previous reading of 2, while Australian Private Sector Credit increased by +0.3% m/m as was widely expected. The pair continued trading higher on Wednesday as commodities prices firmed and despite Australian HIA New Home Sales dropping by -4.9% m/m, versus a previous increase of +4.4%, and the Australian HPI, declining by -1.0% q/q, versus a decline of -0.7% that was expected. The rate continued gaining on Thursday after the Australian Trade Balance came out showing a surplus of +1.71B, significantly wider than the +1.22B consensus. Also out Thursday were Australian Building Approvals, which dropped by -1.0% m/m, versus an expected increase of +2.1%. On Friday, the pair made its weekly high of 1.0792 after the Australian AIG Services Index came out at 51.9, versus a previous reading of 49.0, and despite a positive U.S. Non-Farm Employment number. AUD/USD went on to close the week at 1.0775, showing an overall gain of +1.1% for the week.

USD/CAD lost some ground last week as the commodity currencies were favoured over the Greenback and despite less than positive economic data out of Canada. The pair began the week trading lower after making its weekly high of 1.0069 on Monday as risk appetite increased in the market. Tuesday saw the rate edge higher after Canadian GDP came out at -0.1% m/m, versus an expected increase of +0.2% that was expected, also out was Canadian RMPI, which declined by -2.4% m/m, versus an expected decline of only -0.1%. On Wednesday, the pair sold off after lower than expected U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI and ADP Non-Farm Employment numbers. The pair then consolidated on Thursday as the United States reported a favourable Initial Jobless Claims number. On Friday, the pair continued heading south despite Canadian Employment Change showing the Canadian economy had added only +2.3K jobs in January, versus an expected increase of +23.3K, while the Canadian Unemployment Rate edged up to 7.6% from 7.5%. USD/CAD went on to close the week at 0.9935, showing a decline of -0.7% overall for the week.

NZD/USD extended its previous week’s gains last week as asset flows favoured risk assets over the Greenback. The week began on a soft note with the rate trading higher after making its weekly low of 0.8154 as the United States reported positive Personal Spending and Income numbers. On Tuesday, the pair began trading higher after New Zealand Building Consents came out showing an increase of +2.1% m/m, significantly higher than the previous reading of -6.2%. The rate continued trading higher on Wednesday as the United States reported lower than expected ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and ISM Manufacturing PMI numbers. Thursday saw the pair consolidate as the ANZ Commodity Prices increased by +1.2% m/m, versus a previous reading of -0.8%. On Friday, the pair made its weekly high of 0.8378 after New Zealand Visitor Arrivals increased by +4.5% m/m, versus a previous reading of -11.1%. NZD/USD went on to close at 0.8358, showing an overall gain of +1.4% from its previous weekly close.

The Week Ahead

AUD: The upcoming Australian economic calendar is about as active as last week, featuring the RBA Rate Decision on Tuesday with a 25 basis point rate cut to 4.00% expected. Monday starts the week’s highlights off with Retail Sales (0.2%) and ANZ Job Advertisements (last -0.9%), and Tuesday’s key events include the RBA Cash Rate Decision (4.00%, down from 4.25%) and the RBA Rate Statement. Wednesday then features Westpac Consumer Sentiment (last 2.4%), while Thursday offers little of note. Friday’s data concludes the week with the RBA Monetary Policy Statement. Resistance for AUD/USD is seen at 1.0792 and 1.1079, with support noted at 1.0686, 1.0571 and 1.0376/84.

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• AUD/USD

CAD: The upcoming Canadian economic calendar is about as active as last week, featuring the Canadian Trade Balance on Friday. Monday starts the week’s highlights off with the Ivey PMI (58.6), and Tuesday’s key events include Building Permits (0.8%). Wednesday then features Housing Starts (192K), while Thursday offers the NHPI (0.5%). Friday’s data concludes the week with the Canadian Trade Balance (0.7B). Resistance for USD/CAD is seen at 1.0051/78, 1.0160 and 1.0282/1.0318, while support shows at 0.9927, 0.9891 and 0.9724.

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• CAD/USD

EUR: The upcoming Eurozone economic calendar is about as active as last week, featuring the ECB) Rate Decision on Thursday. Monday starts the week’s highlights off with Sentix Investor Confidence (-14.8) and German Factory Orders (0.7%), and Tuesday’s key events include German Industrial Production (-0.1%). Wednesday then features the ECB Minimum Bid Rate Decision (1.00%) and the associated ECB Press Conference, while Thursday offers little of note. Friday’s data concludes the week with French Industrial Production (-0.8%). Resistance for EUR/USD is seen at 1.3226, 1.3421 and 1.3546, with support showing at 1.3025/76, 1.2875/1.2930 and 1.2623.

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• EUR/USD

GBP: The upcoming UK economic calendar is a bit busier than last week, featuring the MPC Rate Decision on Thursday, with a GBP 50B increase in the Asset Purchase Facility to 325B expected. Monday starts the week’s highlights off with the Halifax HPI (0.1%), and Tuesday’s key events include the BRC Retail Sales Monitor (last 2.2%). Wednesday offers little of note, while Thursday features Manufacturing Production (0.3%), Trade Balance (-8.4B), Asset Purchase Facility (325B from 275B), Official Bank Rate (0.50%), the tentatively scheduled MPC Rate Statement and the NIESR GDP Estimate (last 0.1%). Friday’s data concludes the week with PPI Input (0.4%). Resistance to the topside for GBP/USD shows at 1.5881, 1.6091 and 1.6164, while support for the pair is expected at 1.5733/79, 1.5499/1.5527 and 1.5360.

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• GBP/USD

JPY: The upcoming Japanese economic calendar is about as active as last week, featuring Core Machinery Orders on Thursday. Monday is quiet, so Tuesday starts the week’s highlights off with Leading Indicators (93.9%). Wednesday then features the Current Account (0.63T) and the Economy Watchers Sentiment survey (47.6), while Thursday offers Core Machinery Orders (-4.6%) and M2 Money Stock (3.1%). Friday’s data concludes the week with the CGPI (0.9%). Resistance for USD/JPY currently shows up at 76.73, 77.06/68 and 78.15/28, with support indicated at 76.02, 75.94 and 75.56.

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• JPY/USD

NZD: The upcoming New Zealand economic calendar is a bit busier than last week, featuring the Employment Report on Thursday. Monday is a Bank Holiday in New Zealand, so Tuesday starts the week’s highlights off with the Labor Cost Index (0.5%). Wednesday is quiet, while Thursday offers the Employment Change (0.4%) and Unemployment Rate (6.5%). That concludes the week’s data since Friday is quiet. The chart for NZD/USD shows resistance at 0.8571 and 0.8841. On the downside, technical support is expected at 0.8242/48, 0.8040 and 0.7979/96.

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• NZD/USD

USD: The upcoming U.S. economic calendar is considerably quieter than last week, featuring the U.S. Trade Balance on Friday. Monday is quiet, so Tuesday starts the week’s highlights off with testimony by Fed Chairman Bernanke, and Wednesday’s key events include Crude Oil Inventories (4.2M). Thursday then features Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (390K), and Friday’s data concludes the week with the Trade Balance (-48.2B), Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (74.3), a speech by Fed Chairman Bernanke, a speech by FOMC Member Pianalto and the Federal Budget Balance (-65.2B).

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EUR/USD extended the previous week’s gains as the Fed announced in its latest FOMC meeting it would keep interest rates at historical lows till late 2014. The week began on a positive note, with the rate trading higher off of its weekly low of 1.2875 on Monday after a successful auction of German Treasury bills. The yield on the bills averaged 0.07%, compared to October’s auction which had a yield of 0.346%. The pair continued strengthening on Tuesday as Spain held a successful bond auction and following the release of positive EZ and German PMI data. German Flash Manufacturing PMI came out at 50.9, versus an expected 49.1, while German Services PMI printed at 54.5, versus 52.6 expected. EZ Flash Services PMI printed at 50.5, versus an expected 49.1, while EZ Flash Manufacturing PMI came out at 48.7, versus 47.4 expected. Weighing somewhat on the rate on Tuesday was the rejection of EU finance ministers to a proposed Greek swap deal. On Wednesday, the rate continued rallying after the Fed left the benchmark Fed Funds rate at 0-0.25%. In the accompanying statement, the FOMC confirmed it would leave rates at historically low levels until 2014 and added that the Fed would begin using a target inflation rate of two per cent. Wednesday’s economic numbers had German Ifo Business Climate print at 108.3, versus an expected 107.6, and U.S. Pending Home Sales declining by -3.5% m/m, versus an expected decline of -0.6%. Thursday saw the rate consolidate as Italy held a successful bond auction and the possibility of an agreement between Greek bondholders willing to accept a 4% rate on swapped Greek bonds. Eco-data on Thursday included GfK German Consumer Climate at 5.9, versus an expected 5.6, U.S. Core Durable Goods Orders, which increased +2.1% m/m, versus an expected increase of +0.9% while Durable Goods Orders rose +3.0%, versus an expected rise of +2.1%, also U.S. New Home Sales, at 307K versus 321K expected, and Initial Jobless Claims, which rose to 377K versus 371K expected. On Friday, the pair made its weekly high of 1.3219 after U.S. Advance GDP came out lower than expected, showing a +2.8% rate of growth for the last quarter, versus an expected +3.0%. EUR/USD went on to close the week at 1.3218, gaining +2.2% overall for the week. After the market close, Fitch’s ratings downgraded the sovereign credit ratings of Belgium, Cyprus, Italy, Slovenia and Spain and kept them all on a negative outlook with a 50% chance of a further cut in the next two years.

USD/JPY lost ground last week after the BOJ left rates unchanged and lowered growth forecasts, and as Japan reported its first trade deficit since 1980. The rate began the week on a steady note as traders awaited Tuesday’s release of the BOJ rate decision. The pair then shot up on Tuesday after the BOJ left its benchmark Overnight Call Rate at 0-0.10%. In the press conference after the rate announcement, BOJ Governor Shirakawa stated that, “The euro''s fall versus the yen could drag on Japanese companies export competitiveness against European rivals. It could also hurt the economy by worsening corporate revenues and sentiment.” Also, 2011 growth figures were revised lower to a -0.4% contraction, with projections for 2012 growth lowered to 2.0% from 2.2. On Wednesday, the rate made its weekly high of 78.27 after Japan’s Trade Balance showed its first deficit since 1980, coming out at -0.57T, versus an expected surplus of +0.36T. Thursday saw the rate reverse direction and trade lower after Japanese Core CPI came out at -0.4%, versus -0.3% expected, and Japanese Retail Sales, which came out at +2.5% y/y, versus an expected +2.3%. The pair continued selling off sharply on Friday, making its weekly low of 76.65 after a disappointing U.S. Advance GDP number. USD/JPY went on to close at 76.67, showing an overall decline of -0.4% from its previous weekly close. GBP/USD extended the previous week’s gains after the MPC Meeting Minutes showed the MPC unanimously voted to keep rates and the Asset Purchase Facility unchanged. The week began with the rate trading higher off of its weekly low of 1.5515 on Monday in the absence of any significant economic data out of either country. Cable continued strengthening on Tuesday after UK Public Sector Net Borrowing came out at 10.8B, versus an expected 12.4B. On Wednesday, the rate continued rallying despite UK Preliminary GDP declining by -0.2% q/q, versus an expected -0.1% decline and the MPC Meeting Minutes, which showed a unanimous 0-0-9 vote to leave rates and the Asset Purchase Facility unchanged. Members “noted a downside risk to inflation arising from the possibility that the reduction in the economys supply potential following the recession had been less, and hence spare capacity greater, than assumed in the (November) Inflation Report.” Also supporting Cable on Wednesday was the FOMC leaving interest rates unchanged and extending the period for historically low rates out to 2014. Thursday saw the rate continue higher despite UK CBI Realized Sales coming out at -22, versus an expected print of -2. On Friday, the pair made its weekly high of 1.5738 as the United States reported a lower than expected Advance GDP number. Cable went on to close the week at 1.5728, showing an overall gain of +1.0% for the week.

AUD/USD extended the previous week’s gains as risk appetite increased and Australia reported mixed economic data. The week began on a positive note with the rate rising after Australia reported quarterly PPI had risen +0.3% as was widely expected. Also out on Monday was the Australian CB Leading Index, which declined by -0.3% m/m, versus a previous reading of +0.5%. The pair then made its weekly low of 1.0426 on Tuesday after the Australian MI Leading Index declined by -0.2% m/m, versus a previous reading of +0.1%. On Wednesday, the rate resumed its uptrend as Australian CPI came in with a flat reading m/m, versus an expected increase of +0.2%, while Trimmed Mean CPI increased by +0.6% q/q, versus an expected increase of +0.5%. The rate continued higher on Thursday, making its weekly high of 1.0685 as the United States reported mixed economic data. The pair continued higher on Friday as U.S. Advance GDP failed to meet analyst expectations, bringing the rate to close at 1.0656, showing an overall gain of +1.6% from its previous weekly close. USD/CAD lost ground last week as risk assets were favoured over the Greenback and Canada reported favourable economic data. The week began on a soft note with the rate trading lower after making its weekly high of 1.0159 on Monday after the Canadian Leading Index rose +0.8% m/m, versus an expected +0.6% rise. The pair then gained marginally on Tuesday despite Canadian Core Retail Sales increasing by +0.3% m/m, versus +0.2% expected, and Canadian Retail Sales, which also gained by +0.3% m/m as widely anticipated. On Wednesday, the rate resumed its decline as the United States reported weaker Pending Home Sales and the FOMC stated it would keep rates low until 2014. Thursday saw the rate continue its slide, making its weekly low of 0.9980 as the U.S. reported mixed economic data. On Friday, the rate continued declining after a lower than expected Advance GDP number weighed on the Greenback, bringing the pair to close at 1.0006, showing an overall decline of -1.2% for the week.

NZD/USD continued gaining last week as the RBNZ left rates unchanged and New Zealand reported a better than expected Trade Balance. The week began on a positive note, with the pair gaining in the absence of any significant economic data out of either country. The pair continued rising on Tuesday as risk appetite increased in the market. On Wednesday, the pair made its weekly low of 0.8039 after the RBNZ left its benchmark Official Cash Rate unchanged at 2.50%. In the accompanying statement, the RBNZ noted that, “Since the time of the December Statement, financial market sentiment has improved slightly, with increased liquidity in European financial markets. However, the global economy remains fragile and risks to the outlook remain.” The rate promptly resumed its uptrend after the rate announcement, with the New Zealand Trade Balance, out on Thursday showing a surplus of +338M, versus an expected deficit of -74M. The pair then went on to make its weekly high of 0.8248 on Friday after a disappointing U.S. Advance GDP number, bringing the rate to close at 0.8240, showing an overall gain of +2.2% for the week.

The Week Ahead

AUD: The upcoming Australian economic calendar is bit busier than last week, featuring the Trade Balance on Thursday. Monday is quiet, so Tuesday starts the week’s highlights off with NAB Business Confidence (last 2) and Private Sector Credit (0.4%). Wednesday then features the tentatively scheduled HIA New Home Sales (last 6.8%), HPI (-0.7%) and Commodity Prices (last 10.9%). Thursday offers Building Approvals (2.3%) and the Trade Balance (1.23B). Friday’s data concludes the week with the AIG Services Index (last 49.0). Resistance for AUD/USD is seen at 1.0686, 1.0751 and 1.1079, with support noted at 1.0571, 1.0376/84 and 1.0042.

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• AUD/USD

CAD: The upcoming Canadian economic calendar is about as active as last week, featuring the Employment Report due out on Friday. Monday is quiet, so Tuesday starts the week’s highlights off with GDP (0.2%) and the RMPI (0.2%). Wednesday and Thursday offer little of note, and Friday’s data concludes the week with the Employment Change (23.5K) and Unemployment Rate (7.5%). Resistance for USD/CAD is seen at 1.0051/78, 1.0160 and 1.0282/1.0318, while support shows at 0.9980, 0.9891 and 0.9724.

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• CAD/USD

EUR: The upcoming Eurozone economic calendar is less active than last week, featuring the German and EU Employment Reports due out on Tuesday. Monday starts the week’s highlights off with German Preliminary CPI (-0.4%) and the EU Economic Summit, and Tuesday’s key events include German Retail Sales (0.9%), French Consumer Spending (0.3%), German Unemployment Change (-8K) and the EZ Unemployment Rate (10.4%). Wednesday then features the EZ CPI Flash Estimate (2.7%), while Thursday offers little of note. Friday’s data concludes the week with EZ Retail Sales (0.4%). Resistance for EUR/USD is seen at 1.3421, 1.3546 and 1.3652, with support showing at 1.3076, 1.2875/1.2930 and 1.2623.

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• EUR/USD

GBP: The upcoming UK economic calendar is about as busy as last week, featuring PMI data due out Wednesday through Friday. Monday is quiet, so Tuesday starts the week’s highlights off with GfK Consumer Confidence (-31) and Net Lending to Individuals (1.2B). Wednesday then features the Nationwide HPI (-0.1%) and Manufacturing PMI (50.2). Thursday offers Construction PMI (53.0). Friday’s data concludes the week with the Halifax HPI (Feb 3rd-8th, 0.1%) and Services PMI (53.6). Resistance to the topside for GBP/USD shows at 1.5733/79, 1.6091 and 1.6164, while support for the pair is expected at 1.5499/1.5527, 1.5360 and 1.5232.

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• GBP/USD

JPY: The upcoming Japanese economic calendar is quieter than last week, featuring Preliminary Industrial Production due out on Tuesday. Monday is quiet, so Tuesday starts the week’s highlights off with Household Spending (-0.1%) and Preliminary Industrial Production (2.6%). Wednesday then features Average Cash Earnings (-0.3%). That concludes the week’s key data since Thursday and Friday are quiet. Resistance for USD/JPY currently shows up at 77.06/68, 78.15/28 and 79.52/80.22, with support indicated at 76.55, 75.94 and 75.56.

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• JPY/USD

NZD: The upcoming New Zealand economic calendar is about as quiet as last week, featuring the Employment Report on Thursday. Monday is quiet, so Tuesday starts the week’s highlights off with Building Consents (last -6.4%). Wednesday is quiet, and Thursday offers Employment Change (last 0.2%) and Unemployment Rate (last 6.6%) data. That concludes the week since Friday is quiet. The chart for NZD/USD shows resistance at 0.8242/48, 0.8571 and 0.8841. On the downside, technical support is expected at 0.8040, 0.7979/96 and 0.7864.

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• NZD/USD

USD: The upcoming U.S. economic calendar is busier than last week, featuring the key Employment Report due out on Friday. Monday starts the week’s highlights off with Core PCE Price Index (0.1%) and Personal Spending (0.2%), and Tuesday’s key events include the Employment Cost Index (0.4%), S&P/CS Composite (-20 HPI (-3.2%), Chicago PMI (63.2) and CB Consumer Confidence (68.4). Wednesday then features ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (193K), ISM Manufacturing PMI (54.6) and Crude Oil Inventories (last 3.6M). Thursday offers Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (371K), Preliminary Nonfarm Productivity (1.1%), Preliminary Unit Labor Costs (0.9%) and testimony by Fed Chairman Bernanke. Friday’s key data concludes the week with Non-Farm Payrolls (156K), Unemployment Rate (8.5%), Average Hourly Earnings (0.2%), ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (53.2) and Factory Orders (1.5%). Also, the World Economic Forum’s annual meetings taking place in Davos, Switzerland are due to conclude on Sunday, January 29th. The WEF meetings are traditionally attended by central bankers, government and business leaders, and finance and trade officials from more than 90 nations. The influential meetings are usually open to the press, so influential officials sometimes talk with reporters during the day, and their comments may have an impact on one or more major currencies.

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The Week Ahead

AUD: The upcoming Australian economic calendar is less active than last week, featuring the key CPI data due out on Wednesday. The data week starts on Monday with PPI (0.4%), and Tuesday’s highlights include the CB Leading Index (last 0.6%). Wednesday then features the MI Leading Index (last 0.1%), CPI (0.2%) and Trimmed Mean CPI (0.6%). That concludes the week’s releases since Thursday is a Bank Holiday and Friday is quiet. Resistance for AUD/USD is seen at 1.0485 and 1.0751, with support noted at 1.0376/84, 1.0230 and 1.0143.

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• AUD/USD

CAD: The upcoming Canadian economic calendar is about as active as last week, featuring the key Core Retail Sales data due out on Tuesday. Monday starts the week with the Leading Index (0.6%), and Tuesday’s highlights include Core Retail Sales (0.2%) and Retail Sales (0.3%). Wednesday then features a speech by BOC Governor Carney. That concludes the week since Thursday and Friday are quiet. Resistance for USD/CAD is seen at 1.0160, 1.0282/1.0318 and 1.0422, while support shows at 1.0051/78 and 0.9891.

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• CAD/USD

EUR: The upcoming Eurozone economic calendar is busier than last week, featuring the key German Ifo Business Climate survey out on Wednesday. Monday is quiet, so Tuesday starts the week with French Flash Manufacturing PMI (49.3), French Flash Services PMI (50.5), German Flash Manufacturing PMI (49.1), German Flash Services PMI (52.6), EZ Flash Manufacturing PMI (47.4), EZ Flash Services PMI (49.1), the all-day ECOFIN Meetings, Industrial New Orders (-2.1%) and the Belgium NBB Business Climate survey (-10.1). Wednesday then features the German Ifo Business Climate survey (107.7) and ECB President Draghi speaks. Thursday offers the GfK German Consumer Climate survey (5.6), and Friday’s data concludes the week with the EZ M3 Money Supply (2.3%). Resistance for EUR/USD is seen at 1.2985, 1.3076 and 1.3197, with support showing at 1.2857/77, 1.2623/65 and 1.2586

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• EUR/USD

GBP: The upcoming UK economic calendar is a bit busier than last week, featuring the key Preliminary GDP data out on Wednesday. Monday starts the week with a speech by MPC Member Posen, and Tuesday’s highlights include Public Sector Net Borrowing (12.7B) and a speech by BOE Governor King. Wednesday then features the MPC Meeting Minutes (0-0-9), Preliminary GDP (-0.1%), BBA Mortgage Approvals (35.3K) and CBI Industrial Order Expectations (-19). Thursday offers CBI Realized Sales (1). That concludes the week since Friday is quiet. Resistance to the topside for GBP/USD shows at 1.5668 and 1.5768/79, while support for the pair is expected at 1.5326/1.5499, 1.5232/70 and 1.5123

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• GBP/USD

JPY: The upcoming Japanese economic calendar is considerably busier than last week, featuring the key BOJ Overnight Call Rate Decision tentatively scheduled for Tuesday. Monday is quiet, so Tuesday starts the week with the tentatively scheduled BOJ Monetary Policy Statement, Overnight Call Rate Decision (<0.10%) and associated BOJ Press Conference. Wednesday then features the Trade Balance (0.36T) and BOJ Monthly Report. Thursday is quiet, and Friday’s data concludes the week with Tokyo Core CPI (-0.3%), the BOJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes and Retail Sales (2.3%). Resistance for USD/JPY currently shows up at 77.06/68, 78.15/28 and 79.52/80.22, with support indicated at 76.55/66, 75.94 and 75.56.

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• JPY/USD

NZD: The upcoming New Zealand economic calendar is about as quiet as last week, featuring the key RBNZ Official Cash Rate Decision due out on Thursday. Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday are quiet, so Thursday starts the week with the RBNZ Official Cash Rate Decision (2.5%) and its associated Rate Statement. Friday’s data concludes the week with the Trade Balance (-47M). The chart for NZD/USD shows resistance at 0.8080 and 0.8242. On the downside, technical support is expected at 0.7979/96, 0.7864, and 0.7650.

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• NZD/USD

USD: The upcoming U.S. economic calendar is about as active as last week, featuring the key Fed Funds Rate Decision on Wednesday. Monday and Tuesday are quiet, so Wednesday starts the week’s key releases with Pending Home Sales (-0.3%), Crude Oil Inventories (last -3.4M), plus the Federal Funds Rate Decision (<0.25%) and associated FOMC Statement. Thursday offers Core Durable Goods Orders (1.0%), Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (371K), Durable Goods Orders (2.1%) and New Home Sales (322K). Friday’s data concludes the week with Advance GDP (3.1%), Advance GDP Price Index (2.0%) and the Revised University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey (74.2). Also, the World Economic Forum’s annual meetings are going to take place in Davos, Switzerland this week from Wednesday, January 25th through Sunday the 29th. The WEF meetings are traditionally attended by central bankers, government and business leaders, and finance and trade officials from more than 90 nations. The influential meetings are usually open to the press, so influential officials sometimes talk with reporters during the day, and their comments may have an impact on one or more major currencies.

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The Week Ahead

AUD: The upcoming Australian economic calendar is busier than last week, featuring the key Employment Report on Thursday. Monday starts the week with ANZ Job Advertisements (last 0.0%) and Home Loans (1.0%), while Tuesday is quiet. Wednesday then features the Westpac Consumer Sentiment survey (last -8.3%) and New Motor Vehicle Sales (2.3%). Thursday offers MI Inflation Expectations (last 2.4%), plus the Employment Change (10.3K) and Unemployment Rate (5.3%). Friday’s data concludes the week with Import Prices (0.6%). Resistance for AUD/USD is seen at 1.0376/84 and 1.0751, with support noted at 1.0230, 1.0143 and 1.0042.

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• AUD/USD

CAD: The upcoming Canadian economic calendar is a bit busier than last week, featuring the key BOC Rate Decision on Tuesday. Monday is quiet, so Tuesday starts the week with Foreign Securities Purchases (6.97B), the BOC Rate Statement and the Overnight Rate Decision (1.00%). Wednesday then features the BOC Monetary Policy Report and a BOC Press Conference. Thursday offers Manufacturing Sales (0.9%), while Friday’s data concludes the week with Core CPI (-0.2%), CPI (-0.1%) and Wholesale Sales (1.2%). Resistance for USD/CAD is seen at 1.0282/1.0318, 1.0422 and 1.0522. Support shows at 1.0125/39, 1.0051/78 and 0.9892.

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• CAD/USD

EUR: The upcoming Eurozone economic calendar is about as active as last week, featuring the key EZ and German ZEW Economic Sentiment surveys on Tuesday. Monday starts the week with a speech by ECB President Draghi, and Tuesday’s highlights include the German ZEW Economic Sentiment survey (-49.5), EZ CPI (2.8%) and Core CPI (1.6%), and the EZ ZEW Economic Sentiment survey (-48.7). Wednesday then features little of note, while Thursday offers the EZ Current Account (0.5B) and the ECB Monthly Bulletin. Friday’s data concludes the week with German PPI (0.1%). Resistance for EUR/USD is seen at 1.2877, 1.3076 and 1.3197, with support showing at 1.2623, 1.2586 and 1.2151.

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• EUR/USD

GBP: The upcoming UK economic calendar is about as active as last week, featuring the key Employment Report on Wednesday. Monday starts the week with the Rightmove HPI (last -2.7%), and Tuesday’s highlights include Nationwide Consumer Confidence (17th-20th, 41), CPI (4.2%) and RPI (4.7%), plus speeches by BOE Governor King and MPC Member Posen. Wednesday then features the Claimant Count Change (8.2K) and Unemployment Rate (8.3%) data. Thursday offers little of note, so Friday’s data concludes the week with Retail Sales (0.6%). Resistance to the topside for GBP/USD shows at 1.5326/1.5499, 1.5668 and 1.5768/79, while support for the pair is expected at 1.5232/70, 1.5123 and 1.4947.

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• GBP/USD

JPY: The upcoming Japanese economic calendar is a bit busier than last week, featuring Core Machinery Orders (5.8%) on Monday. Monday also offers CGPI (1.3%) and Household Confidence (38.9). Tuesday’s highlights include Tertiary Industry Activity (-0.3%), while Wednesday then features Revised Industrial Production (-2.4%). Thursday offers little of note, and Friday’s data concludes the week with All Industries Activity (-0.6%). Resistance for USD/JPY currently shows up at 77.06/68, 78.15/28 and 79.52/80.22, with support indicated at 76.57/66, 75.94 and 75.56.

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• JPY/USD

NZD: The upcoming New Zealand economic calendar is a bit busier than last week, featuring the key CPI data on Thursday. Monday is quiet, so Tuesday starts the week with the NZIER Business Confidence survey (last 25) and the REINZ HPI (17th-18th, last 1.1%). Wednesday has little of note, but Thursday offers CPI (0.4%). That concludes the week since Friday is quiet. The chart for NZD/USD shows resistance 0.7979/96 and 0.8242. On the downside, technical support is expected at 0.7864, 0.7650 and 0.7461.

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• NZD/USD

USD: The upcoming U.S. economic calendar is about as busy as last week, featuring the key CPI data on Thursday. Monday is a U.S. Bank Holiday, so Tuesday starts the week with the Empire State Manufacturing Index (10.7). Wednesday then features PPI (0.1%), Core PPI (0.1%), TIC Long-Term Purchases (27.3B), the Capacity Utilization Rate (78.2%), Industrial Production (0.5%) and Crude Oil Inventories (last 5.0M). Thursday offers Building Permits (0.68M), Core CPI (0.1%), Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (389K), CPI (0.2%), Housing Starts (0.69M) and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (11.3). Friday’s data concludes the week with Existing Home Sales (4.65M).

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The Week Ahead

AUD: The upcoming Australian economic calendar is about as quiet as last week, featuring Retail Sales data on Monday. Monday starts the week with the tentatively schedule HIA New Home Sales data (last 5.5%) and Retail Sales (0.4%), while Tuesday features Building Approvals (6.3%). That concludes the week’s highlights since Wednesday, Thursday and Friday are quiet. Resistance for AUD/USD is seen at 1.0378/84 and 1.0751, with support noted at 1.0042, 0.9860 and 0.9663.

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• AUD/USD

CAD: The upcoming Canadian economic calendar is busier than last week, featuring the BOC Business Outlook Survey on Monday. Monday starts the week with Building Permits (-3.1%) and the BOC Business Outlook Survey, while Tuesday’s highlights include Housing Starts (187K). Wednesday is quiet, but Thursday features the NHPI (0.3%). Friday’s data concludes the week’s highlights with the Trade Balance (-0.4B). Resistance for USD/CAD is seen at 1.0422 and 1.0522. Support shows at 1.0125, 1.0051/78 and 0.9892.

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• CAD/USD

EUR: The upcoming Eurozone economic calendar is less active than last week, featuring the key the ECB Rate Decision on Thursday. Monday starts the week with Sentix Investor Confidence (-23.8) and German Industrial Production (-0.5%), while Tuesday’s highlights include French Industrial Production (0.1%). Wednesday is quiet, but Thursday offers EZ Industrial Production (-0.2%), the Minimum Bid Rate Decision (1.00%) and the associated ECB Press Conference. That data concludes the week’s highlights since Friday is quiet. Resistance for EUR/USD is seen at 1.3076, 1.3197 and 1.3538, with support showing at 1.2697 and 1.2586.

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• EUR/USD

GBP: The upcoming UK economic calendar is busier than last week, featuring the BOE Rate Decision on Thursday. Monday is quiet, so Tuesday starts the week with the BRC Retail Sales Monitor (last -1.6%) and the RICS House Price Balance (-18%). Wednesday then features the Trade Balance (-8.2B), while Thursday offers Manufacturing Production (0.0%), the Asset Purchase Facility (275B), the Official Bank Rate Decision (0.50%), the tentatively scheduled MPC Rate Statement and the NIESR GDP Estimate (last 0.3%). Friday’s data concludes the week with PPI Input (0.1%). Resistance to the topside for GBP/USD shows at 1.5668, 1.5768/79 and 1.5887, while support for the pair is expected at 1.5407/21, 1.5326/60 and 1.5270.

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• GBP/USD

JPY: The upcoming Japanese economic calendar is busier than last week, featuring Leading Indicators data on Wednesday. Monday is a Bank Holiday, and Tuesday is quiet, so Wednesday starts the week with Leading Indicators (92.9%), Bank Lending (last 0.2%) and the Current Account (0.44T). Thursday then offers the Economy Watchers Sentiment survey (46.3), Preliminary Machine Tool Orders (last 15.8%) and M2 Money Stock (3.1%). That data concludes the week’s highlights since Friday is quiet. Resistance for USD/JPY currently shows up at 77.13/68, 78.15/28 and 79.52/80.22, with support indicated at 76.57/60, 75.94 and 75.56.

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• JPY/USD

NZD: The upcoming New Zealand economic calendar is a bit busier than last week, featuring Building Consents data on Tuesday. Monday starts the week with the Trade Balance (-290M), while Tuesday’s highlights include Building Consents (last 11.2%). Wednesday is quiet, but the REINZ HPI (last 1.1%) is due out between the 12th and the 16th of the month. That concludes the week since Friday is quiet. The chart for NZD/USD shows resistance at 0.7906, 0.7996 and 0.8242. On the downside, technical support is expected at 0.7650, 0.7461 and 0.7370.

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• NZD/USD

USD: The upcoming U.S. economic calendar is a bit busier than last week, featuring the key U.S. Trade Balance data on Friday. Monday starts the week with a speech by FOMC Member Lockhart, and Tuesday’s highlights include speeches by FOMC Members Williams and Pianalto. Wednesday then features another speech by FOMC Member Lockhart, as well as Crude Oil Inventories (2.2M) and the Fed’s Beige Book. Thursday offers Core Retail Sales (0.3%) and Retail Sales (0.3%), plus Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (370K), Business Inventories (0.4%) and the Federal Budget Balance (-79.0B). Friday’s data concludes the week with the Trade Balance (-44.6B), Import Prices (0.0%), and the Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey (70.8).

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The Week Ahead

AUD: The upcoming Australian economic calendar is a bit busier than last week, featuring the Australian Trade Balance on Thursday. Monday is an Australian Bank Holiday, and Tuesday offers Commodity Prices (last 8.1). Wednesday is quiet, while Thursday features the AIG Services Index (last 47.7) and the Australian Trade Balance (1.68B). That concludes the week since Friday is quiet. Resistance for AUD/USD is seen at 1.0378 and 1.0751, with support noted at 1.0042, 0.9860 and 0.9663.

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• AUD/USD

CAD: The upcoming Canadian economic calendar is busier than last week, featuring the Canadian Employment Report on Friday. Monday is a Canadian Bank Holiday, and Tuesday and Wednesday are quiet, so the week’s highlights start on Thursday with RMPI (0.1%) and Ivey PMI (56.7). Friday’s data then concludes the week with the Employment Change (15.3K) and the Canadian Unemployment Rate (7.4%). Resistance for USD/CAD is seen at 1.0267, 1.0422 and 1.0522. Support shows at 1.0125, 1.0051/78 and 0.9892.

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• CAD/USD

EUR: The upcoming Eurozone economic calendar is busier than last week, featuring EZ Flash CPI data on Wednesday. Monday is a Bank Holiday in France and Italy, so Tuesday starts the week with the German Unemployment Change (-9K). Wednesday then features French Consumer Spending (0.3%) and the EZ CPI Flash Estimate (2.8%). Thursday offers EZ Retail Sales (0.1%) and Industrial New Orders (2.5%). Friday is a Bank Holiday in Italy and ends the week with EZ Retail Sales (-0.2%), the EZ Unemployment Rate (10.3%) and German Factory Orders (-1.6%). Resistance for EUR/USD is seen at 1.3197 and 1.3538, with support showing at 1.2857/73 and 1.2586.

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• EUR/USD

GBP: The upcoming UK economic calendar is busier than last week, featuring PMI data on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. Monday is a UK Bank Holiday, so Tuesday starts the week with the Manufacturing PMI (47.4). Wednesday then features Construction PMI (51.9) and Net Lending to Individuals (1.0B). The Halifax HPI is due out from January 5th-12th, while Thursday offers Services PMI (51.6) and the BOE Credit Conditions Survey. That concludes the week since Friday is quiet. Resistance to the topside for GBP/USD shows at 1.5768/79, 1.5887 and 1.6165, while support for the pair is expected at 1.5407/21, 1.5326/60 and 1.5270.

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• GBP/USD

JPY: The upcoming Japanese economic calendar is quieter than last week, only featuring the Monetary Base (20.3%) on Thursday. Also, Monday and Tuesday are Bank Holidays in Japan. Resistance for USD/JPY currently shows up at 77.13/68, 78.15/28 and 79.52/80.22, with support indicated at 76.57, 75.94 and 75.56.

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• JPY/USD

NZD: The upcoming New Zealand economic calendar is as quiet as last week, with no data coming out this week. Also, Monday and Tuesday are New Zealand Bank Holidays. The chart for NZD/USD shows resistance at 0.7878, 0.7996 and 0.8242. On the downside, technical support is expected at 0.7650, 0.7461 and 0.7370.

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• NZD/USD

USD: The upcoming U.S. economic calendar is about as active as last week, featuring the key U.S. Employment Report on Friday. Monday is a U.S. Bank Holiday, so Tuesday starts the week with the ISM Manufacturing PMI (53.3) and the FOMC Meeting Minutes. Wednesday then features just Factory Orders (2.0%). Thursday offers ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (177K), Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (375K), ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (53.1) and Crude Oil Inventories 3.9M. Friday’s data concludes the week with Non-Farm Payrolls (153K), the U.S. Unemployment Rate (8.7%) and Average Hourly Earnings (0.2%).

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The Week Ahead

AUD: The upcoming Australian economic calendar is considerably quieter than last week, only featuring Private Sector Credit (0.3%) on Friday. Also, Monday and Tuesday are Australian Bank Holidays. Resistance for AUD/USD is seen at 1.0378 and 1.0751, with support noted at 0.9860, 0.9663 and 0.9386.

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• AUD/USD

CAD: The upcoming Canadian economic calendar is considerably quieter than last week, with no data coming out this week. Also, Monday and Tuesday are Canadian Bank Holidays. Resistance for USD/CAD is seen at 1.0422, 1.0522 and 1.0656. Support shows at 1.0051/78 and 0.9892.

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• CAD/USD

EUR: The upcoming Eurozone economic calendar is considerably quieter than last week, only featuring German Preliminary CPI (0.8%) and the EZ M3 Money Supply (2.5%) on Thursday. Also, Monday is a Bank Holiday in Germany and Italy. Resistance for EUR/USD is seen at 1.3197 and 1.3538, with support showing at 1.2945 and 1.2873.

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• EUR/USD

GBP: The upcoming UK economic calendar is considerably quieter than last week, only featuring Nationwide HPI (0.3%) on Friday. Also, Monday and Tuesday are UK Bank Holidays. Resistance to the topside for GBP/USD shows at 1.5768/79, 1.5887 and 1.6165, while support for the pair is expected at 1.5407/21, 1.5326 and 1.5270.

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• GBP/USD

JPY: The upcoming Japanese economic calendar is about as active as last week, featuring the Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes due out on Tuesday. Monday is quiet, so Tuesday starts the week with the Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes. Wednesday offers Household Spending (-1.1%), Tokyo Core CPI (-0.4%), Preliminary Industrial Production (-0.7%), Retail Sales (0.1%) and Average Cash Earnings (0.1%). That ends the week since Thursday and Friday are quiet. Resistance for USD/JPY currently shows up at 78.28 and 79.52/80.22, with support indicated at 77.13/68, 76.57 and 75.56.

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• JPY/USD

NZD: The upcoming New Zealand economic calendar is considerably quieter than last week, with no data coming out this week. Also, Monday and Tuesday are New Zealand Bank Holidays. The chart for NZD/USD shows resistance at 0.7878, 0.7996 and 0.8242. On the downside, technical support is expected at 0.7461 and 0.7370.

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• NZD/USD

USD: The upcoming U.S. economic calendar is considerably quieter than last week, featuring Weekly Initial Jobless Claims data on Thursday. Monday is a U.S. Bank Holiday, so Tuesday starts the week with the S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI (-3.2%) and CB Consumer Confidence (58.5). Wednesday then features the tentatively scheduled Treasury Currency Report. Thursday offers Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (370K), Chicago PMI (60.4), Pending Home Sales (1.4%) and Crude Oil Inventories (last -10.6M). That ends the week since Friday is quiet.

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The Week Ahead

AUD: The upcoming Australian economic calendar is quieter than last week, featuring the Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes on Tuesday. Monday is quiet, so Tuesday starts the week with the CB Leading Index (last 0.1%) and the Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes. Wednesday then features the MI Leading Index (last -0.3%). That ends the week since Thursday and Friday are quiet. Resistance for AUD/USD is seen at 1.0025, 1.0328/78 and 1.0751, with support noted at 0.9860, 0.9622/61 and 0.9386.

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• AUD/USD

CAD: The upcoming Canadian economic calendar is about as active as last week, featuring GDP data on Friday. Monday starts the week with Wholesale Sales (0.3%). Tuesday’s highlights include Core CPI (0.2%) and CPI (0.3%). Wednesday then features Core Retail Sales (0.4%) and Retail Sales (0.4%). Thursday is quiet, and Friday ends the week with GDP (0.1%). Resistance for USD/CAD is seen at 1.0422, 1.0522 and 1.0656. Support shows at 1.0296, 1.0051/78 and 0.9891.

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• CAD/USD

EUR: The upcoming Eurozone economic calendar is quieter than last week, featuring German Ifo Business Climate survey results on Tuesday. Monday starts the week with the EZ Current Account (-2.1B) and ECB President Draghi speaks. Tuesday’s highlights include German PPI (0.1%), the EZ GfK German Consumer Climate survey (5.5), and the German Ifo Business Climate survey (106.2). Wednesday then features the Belgium NBB Business Climate survey (-11.1). That ends the week since Thursday and Friday are quiet. Resistance for EUR/USD is seen at 1.3145, 1.3211 and 1.3546, with support showing at 1.2945 and 1.2873.

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• EUR/USD

GBP: The upcoming UK economic calendar is about as active as last week, featuring the MPC Meeting Minutes on Wednesday. Monday starts the week with the Rightmove HPI (last -3.1%). Tuesday’s highlights include the GfK Consumer Confidence survey (-30), the tentatively scheduled Nationwide Consumer Confidence survey (34) and CBI Realized Sales (-15). Wednesday then features the MPC Meeting Minutes (0-0-9) and Public Sector Net Borrowing (13.5B). Thursday offers Current Account (-5.2B) and Final GDP (0.5%) results. Friday ends the week with BBA Mortgage Approvals (36.3K). Resistance to the topside for GBP/USD shows at 1.5768/79 and 1.5887, while support for the pair is expected at 1.5407/21, 1.5326 and 1.5270.

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• GBP/USD

JPY: The upcoming Japanese economic calendar is busier than last week, featuring the BOJ Rate Decision tentatively scheduled for Wednesday. Monday and Tuesday are quiet, so Wednesday starts the week with the Japanese Trade Balance (-0.28T), and the tentatively scheduled Monetary Policy Statement, Overnight Call Rate Decision (<0.10%) and BOJ Press Conference. Thursday then features the tentatively scheduled speech by BOJ Governor Shirakawa and the BOJ Monthly Report. That ends the week since Friday is a Bank Holiday in Japan. Resistance for USD/JPY currently shows up at 77.80, 78.15/28 and 79.52/80.22, with support indicated at 77.13/61, 76.57 and 75.56.

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• JPY/USD

NZD: The upcoming New Zealand economic calendar is busier than last week, featuring GDP data on Thursday. Monday starts the week with Westpac Consumer Sentiment (101.3) and NBNZ Business Confidence (last 18.3) surveys. Tuesday is quiet, while Wednesday’s highlights include the NZ Current Account (last -0.92B). Thursday then ends the week with GDP (0.1%) since Friday is quiet. The chart for NZD/USD shows resistance at 0.7876, 0.7996 and 0.8240. On the downside, technical support is expected at 0.7460/67 and 0.7369.

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• NZD/USD

USD: The upcoming U.S. economic calendar is considerably quieter than last week, featuring Weekly Initial Jobless Claims data on Thursday. Monday is quiet, so Tuesday starts the week with Building Permits (0.63M) and Housing Starts (0.64M). Wednesday then features Existing Home Sales (5.04M), Crude Oil Inventories (last -1.9M) and the tentatively scheduled Treasury Currency Report. Thursday offers Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (376K), Final GDP (2.0%) and the Revised University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey (68.1). Friday ends the week with Core Durable Goods Orders (0.5%), Core PCE Price Index (0.1%), Durable Goods Orders (2.2%), Personal Spending (0.3%) and New Home Sales (314K).

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The Week Ahead

AUD: The upcoming Australian economic calendar is quieter than last week, featuring Home Loans data on Monday. Monday starts the week with Home Loans (0.1%) and the Australian Trade Balance (2.03B). Tuesday then features NAB Business Confidence (last 2). Wednesday offers Westpac Consumer Sentiment (6.3%) and a speech by RBA Deputy Governor Battellino. Thursday’s highlights include MI Inflation Expectations (last 2.5%) and New Motor Vehicle Sales (last 1.1). That ends the week since Friday is quiet. Resistance for AUD/USD is seen at 1.0255, 1.0328/78 and 1.0751, with support noted at 1.0048/51, 0.9622/61 and 0.9386.

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• AUD/USD

CAD: The upcoming Canadian economic calendar is quieter than last week, featuring the Leading Index on Wednesday. Monday starts the week with a speech by BOC Governor Carney. Wednesday then offers the Leading Index (0.3%) and Manufacturing Sales (2.8%). Thursday features the Capacity Utilization Rate (78.9%). Friday ends the week with Foreign Securities Purchases (8.23B). Resistance for USD/CAD is seen at 1.0262/64 and 1.0522. Support shows at 1.0052/78 and 0.9891.

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• CAD/USD

EUR: The upcoming EZ economic calendar is considerably busier than last week, featuring the German ZEW Consumer Sentiment survey on Tuesday. Tuesday starts the week with the German ZEW Economic Sentiment survey (-55.7) and the EZ ZEW Economic Sentiment survey (-60.3). Wednesday then features EZ Industrial Production (0.1%). Thursday offers French Flash Manufacturing PMI (47.1), French Flash Services PMI (49.2), German Flash Manufacturing PMI (47.6), German Flash Services PMI (50.1), the ECB Monthly Bulletin, EZ Flash Manufacturing PMI (46.1), EZ Flash Services PMI (47.1), EZ CPI (3.0%), EZ Core CPI (1.7%) and a speech by ECB President Draghi. Friday ends the week with ECB President Draghi speaking again. Resistance for EUR/USD is seen at 1.3458, 1.3546 and 1.3614, with support showing at 1.3281, 1.3212 and 1.3145.

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• EUR/USD

GBP: The upcoming UK economic calendar is a bit busier than last week, featuring employment data on Wednesday. Monday starts the week with a tentatively scheduled speech by BOE Governor King. Tuesday then features the RICS House Price Balance (-25%), CPI (4.8%), and the RPI (5.1%). Wednesday offers the Claimant Count Change (17.3K) and Average Earnings Index (2.0%). Thursday features Retail Sales (-0.2%), Consumer Inflation Expectations (last 4.2%) and CBI Industrial Order Expectations (20). Friday ends the week with the tentatively scheduled Nationwide Consumer Confidence survey (34). Resistance to the topside for GBP/USD shows at 1.5770/79 and 1.5887, while support for the pair is expected at 1.5561, 1.5421 and 1.5270.

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• GBP/USD

JPY: The upcoming Japanese economic calendar is as quiet as last week, featuring the Tankan Report on Thursday. Tuesday starts the week with Tertiary Industry Activity (0.5%). Thursday then features the Tankan Manufacturing Index (-2) and the Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index (1). That ends the week since Friday is quiet. Resistance for USD/JPY currently shows up at 77.80, 78.28 and 79.52/80.22, with support indicated at 77.13/29, 76.57 and 75.56.

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• JPY/USD

NZD: The upcoming New Zealand economic calendar is considerably quieter than last week, featuring the Westpac Consumer Sentiment survey on Tuesday. Monday starts the week with the tentatively scheduled Westpac Consumer Sentiment survey (last 112.0). Tuesday then features the FPI (last -1.3%). Wednesday offers the all-day OPEC Meetings. Thursday ends the week with Business NZ Manufacturing Index (last 46.5). The chart for NZD/USD shows resistance at 0.7878, 0.7996 and 0.8240. On the downside, technical support is expected at 0.7637 and 0.7369.

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• NZD/USD

USD: The upcoming U.S. economic calendar is considerably busier than last week, featuring Retail Sales data on Tuesday. Monday starts the week with the Federal Budget Balance (-138.0B). Tuesday then features Core Retail Sales (0.5%), Retail Sales (0.6%), Business Inventories (0.5%), the FOMC Statement and Federal Funds Rate Decision (<0.25%). Wednesday offers Import Prices (1.0%), Crude Oil Inventories (last 1.3M), and the tentatively scheduled Treasury Currency Report. Thursday’s highlights include PPI (0.3%), Core PPI (0.2%), Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (389K), Current Account (-108B), the Empire State Manufacturing Index (3.1), TIC Long-Term Purchases (53.4B), the Capacity Utilization Rate (77.9%), Industrial Production (0.3%) and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (5.1). Friday ends the week with Core CPI (0.2%), CPI (0.1%), plus speeches by FOMC Member Evans and Fisher.

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EUR/USD reversed its downward trend last week as six major central banks announced they would work together to boost liquidity. The week began on a positive note with the rate gapping higher on the open, making its weekly low of 1.3272 despite Germany denying rumours of “elite bonds” being issued by the ECB and the IMF denying rumours of a €600B bailout package being prepared for Italy. Eco numbers on Monday had German GfK Consumer Climate at 5.6 versus 5.2 expected and U.S. New Home Sales which came out at 307K versus 313K that was expected. The rate continued higher on Tuesday after solid demand for Italian bonds at what some analysts considered “unsustainably high” yields benefited the rate. In addition, Fitch downgraded the United States AAA rating outlook to negative. Also on Tuesday, U.S. CB Consumer Confidence came out at 56.0,versus an expected print of 43.9. The pair then surged on Wednesday after the ECB, BOE, BOJ, SNB, BOC and the U.S. Fed announced they would lower costs for USD emergency funding by 50 bps and China announced a 50 bps cut to its reserve requirements, indicating the PBOC will begin loosening monetary policy. Also, U.S. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change showed an increase of +207K,versus an expected increase of only +131K and U.S. Pending Home Sales, which rose by +10.4%, significantly higher than the +1.4% increase that was expected. Thursday saw the rate consolidate as both Spain and France held what the market deemed successful bond auctions and U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI came out at 52.7, versus an expected print of 51.6. The rate then made its weekly high of 1.3546 on Friday after U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls came out showing an increase of 120K jobs as anticipated, while the U.S. Unemployment rate unexpectedly dipped to 8.6%, versus 9.0% that was expected. EUR/USD then went on to close at 1.3403, showing an overall gain of +1.3% from its previous weekly close. On Saturday, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble detailed his proposal for a sovereign debt redemption plan which he will present at this week’s crunch summit of EU leaders.

JPY/USD gained marginally last week as both the United States and Japan released mixed economic data. The rate began the week on a positive note as BOJ Governor Shirakawa stated to business leaders in Nagoya that, “When uncertainty over the overseas economic outlook is high, as is the case now, yen rises may hurt Japan''s economy by reducing exports and corporate profits as well as by worsening business sentiment. We need to be mindful of this,” In addition, Japanese Household Spending dropped by -0.4% y/y, significantly less than the drop of -1.4% that was expected, and Japanese Retail Sales, which increased by +1.9% y/y versus an expected increase of +0.7%. The rate then dropped after making its weekly high of 78.28 on Tuesday as Japanese Industrial Production increased by +2.4% m/m, versus an expected increase of +1.1%. The pair then made its weekly low of 77.29 on Wednesday after six major central banks agreed to add liquidity to the market and Japanese Average Cash Earnings increased by +0.1% versus an expected flat reading. On Thursday, the pair resumed its rally as Japanese Capital Spending declined by -9.8% q/y, more than twice the expected decline of -4.1%. The rate continued higher on Friday as the United States reported positive employment news bringing the rate to close at 77.97, a gain of only +0.3% for the week.

GBP/USD gained ground last week as positive news for the Eurozone and encouraging economic data for the UK supported Cable. The rate began the week gapping higher and making its weekly low of 1.5457 after BOE Governor King testified at the Inflation Report Hearings that, “I dont think its as bad here as it is in the euro area economy, where ... the de-leveraging of euro area banks is leading to early signs of a credit crunch, with concerns that it will get worse,” Also, UK CBI Realized Sales came out at -19, versus an expected reading of -12. Cable continued climbing on Tuesday after UK Nationwide HPI increased by +0.4% m/m, versus an expected decline of -0.1%, and UK Net Lending to Individuals increased to +1.3B m/m, versus an expected increase of +1.0B. Cable then made its weekly high of 1.5779 on Wednesday after news that six major central banks would act jointly to increase liquidity in the market. Also, UK GfK Consumer Confidence came out at -31, versus an expected reading of -33. The rate then consolidated on Thursday after UK Manufacturing PMI came out at 47.6, edging the consensus of a 47.1 print. On Friday, Cable declined as the United States reported positive employment data and UK Construction PMI came out at 52.3, just slightly above the consensus of a 52.1 print. GBP/USD went on to close at 1.5598, increasing by +0.9% overall for the week

AUD/USD gained sharply last week as risk appetite increased dramatically in response to positive developments in the Eurozone and China’s PBOC cut its reserve requirement ratio. The week began with the rate gapping higher and making its weekly low of 0.9787 as positive news from Europe and weak U.S. New Home Sales supported the rate. Tuesday saw the pair continue higher as Fitch downgraded the United States’ rating outlook to negative. The rate then made its weekly high of 1.0328 on Wednesday as six major central banks decided to act jointly to increase liquidity in the market. Adding support to the Aussie were Australian HIA New Home Sales, which increased by +5.5% m/m, versus a previous reading of -3.5%, and Australian Private Capital Expenditures, which increased by +12.3% q/q, significantly higher than the increase of +8.2% that was expected. The pair then declined on Thursday after Australian Building Approvals declined by -10.7%, considerably more than the increase of +3.6% that was expected, and Australian Retail Sales, which increased by only +0.2%, versus the consensus of an increase of +0.4%. The rate continued declining on Friday after the United States reported positive employment numbers bringing the pair to close at 1.0210, showing an increase of a whopping +5.0% from its previous weekly close.

CAD/USD lost considerable ground last week as risk appetite increased and despite less than favourable economic data out of Canada. The week began with the rate gapping lower and making its weekly high of 1.0445 on Monday as the Greenback fell across the board. The pair continued heading south on Tuesday despite the Canadian Current Account deficit narrowing to -12.1B, versus -11.3B expected, with the previous number revised from a deficit of -15.3B to -16.1B. The rate continued sharply lower on Wednesday as six major central banks agreed to add liquidity to the market and despite Canadian GDP increasing by only +0.2% m/m, versus an expected increase of +0.3%. The pair continued lower on Thursday, as U.S. Initial Jobless Claims showed 402K versus 390K expected. On Friday, the rate made its weekly low of 1.0078 before rallying after Canadian Employment Change came out at -18.6K, versus an expected increase of +18.1K and the Canadian Unemployment Rate increasing to 7.4% from 7.3%. USD/CAD went on to close at 1.0181, showing an overall loss of -3.0% from its previous weekly close.

NZD/USD rose substantially last week as risk appetite and positive news from the Eurozone supported the rate. The week began with the pair gapping higher, making its weekly low of 0.7475 on Monday after positive news from the Eurozone supported the Kiwi. In addition, the RBNZ Business Confidence Survey increased to +18.3, versus a previous reading of +13.2. The pair continued its rally on Tuesday after New Zealand Building Consents rose by +11.2% m/m, which was significantly higher than the previous reading of -17.2%. On Wednesday, the rate shot up after major central banks decided to add liquidity and the United States reported favourable economic numbers. Thursday saw the rate consolidate after New Zealand’s Terms of Trade Index dropped unexpectedly by -0.7% q/q, versus an expected increase of +1.5%. The pair then made its weekly high of 0.7836 on Friday before selling off on profit taking to close the week at 0.7775, showing an impressive gain of +4.6%.

The Week Ahead

AUD: This week’s Australian economic calendar is busier than last week, and it features the key RBA Rate Decision due out on Tuesday where a 25bps rate cut is expected. Monday offers the AIG Services Index (last 48.8), ANZ Job Advertisements (last -0.7%) and Company Operating Profits (3.1%), while Tuesday offers the Current Account (-5.5B) and the highlighted RBA Rate Decision and associated Rate Statement where the central bank is widely expected to cut the benchmark Cash Rate by 25bps to 4.25%. Wednesday then has just the GDP data (last 1.2%), and Thursday offers key Employment Change (10.6K) and Unemployment Rate (5.2%) numbers, as well as a speech by RBA Governor Stevens. That concludes the week since Friday is relatively quiet. Resistance for AUD/USD is seen at 1.0255, 1.0328/70 and 1.0751, with support noted at 1.0051, 0.9622/61 and 0.9386.

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• AUD/USD

CAD: This week’s Canadian economic calendar is a bit busier than last week, and it features the key BOC Rate Decision due out on Tuesday. Monday offers nothing of note, so Tuesday starts the week with the release of Building Permits (3.2%), the featured BOC Rate Statement and Overnight Rate Decision (1.00%) and the Ivey PMI (55.1). Wednesday has little notable data scheduled, while Thursday features Housing Starts (203K) and the NHPI (0.5%). Friday then concludes the week with the Canadian Trade Balance (0.8B) and Labor Productivity (0.4%). Resistance for USD/CAD is seen at 1.0264 and 1.0522. Support shows at 1.0078 and 0.9891.

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• CAD/USD

EUR: This week’s Eurozone economic calendar is about as busy as last week, and it features the ECB Rate Decision scheduled for Thursday. Monday begins the week’s highlights with Sentix Investor Confidence (-21.4) and EZ Retail Sales (0.2%), while Tuesday just has German Factory Orders (1.0%) scheduled. Wednesday features German Industrial Production (0.3%), and Thursday is an Italian Bank Holiday, and also features the ECB Minimum Bid Rate Decision (1.25%) and associated ECB Press Conference. Friday then concludes the week with French Industrial Production (0.0%) and the EU Economic Summit. Resistance for EUR/USD is seen at 1.3546 and 1.3614, with support showing at 1.3211 and 1.3145.

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• EUR/USD

GBP: This week’s U.K. economic calendar is about as active as last week, and it will feature the key BOE Rate Decision scheduled for Thursday. Monday has Services PMI (50.6) due out, while Tuesday features the BRC Retail Sales Monitor (last -0.6%), and may also see the release of the Halifax HPI (Dec 6-7, last 1.2%). Wednesday offers Manufacturing Production (-0.1%), and the NIESR GDP Estimate (last 0.5%), while Thursday features the highlighted BOE Rate Decision that includes the Asset Purchase Facility (275B) and Official Bank Rate Decision (0.50%), plus a tentatively scheduled MPC Rate Statement. Friday then concludes the week with PPI Input (0.3%) and the UK Trade Balance (-9.5B). Resistance to the topside for GBP/USD shows at 1.5779 and 1.5887, while support for the pair is expected at 1.5421 and 1.5270.

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• GBP/USD

JPY: This week’s Japanese economic calendar is quieter than last week, and features the Final GDP data scheduled for release on Friday. Since Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday have little of note scheduled for release, the first highlight of the week will be on Thursday when Core Machinery Orders (0.8%) is due out. Friday then features BSI Manufacturing Index (11.4) and the highlighted Final GDP data (1.2%) to end the week. Resistance for USD/JPY currently shows up at 78.28 and 79.52/80.22, with support indicated at 77.29, 76.57 and 75.56.

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• JPY/USD

NZD: This week’s New Zealand economic calendar is busier than last week, and it will feature RBNZ Rate Decision on Thursday. Since Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday have little of note scheduled for release, the first highlight of the week will be on Thursday when the Official Cash Rate Decision (2.50%) and the associated RBNZ Press Conference, RBNZ Rate Statement and Monetary Policy Statement are due out. Friday then concludes the week and may see the release of the REINZ HPI (Dec 9-13, -0.3%). The chart for NZD/USD shows resistance at 0.7836, 0.7996 and 0.8240. On the downside, technical support is expected at 0.7722 and 0.7369.

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• NZD/USD

USD: This week’s U.S. economic calendar offers considerably fewer highlights than last week, with the main focus being on the key U.S. Trade Balance number due out on Friday. Monday features ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (53.6), Factory Orders (-0.2%) and a speech by FOMC Member Evans, and Tuesday offers little of note. Wednesday’s primary focus is Crude Oil Inventories (last 3.9M), while Thursday’s highlights include Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (397K) and the tentatively scheduled Treasury Currency Report. Friday then ends the week with the highlighted Trade Balance (-43.5B), as well as the Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey (65.6).

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EUR/USD continued declining last week as risk aversion and negative news out of the Eurozone pushed the U.S. Dollar higher and world equity markets and other risk assets sharply lower. The rate began the week on a soft note as Moody’s warned on France’s rating outlook and Germany’s Bundesbank lowered growth forecasts for 2012 from +1.8% to +0.5% to +1.0%. Eco data on Monday had the EZ Current Account come out with a surplus of +0.5B, versus an expected deficit of -3.2B, while U.S. Existing Home Sales increased to +4.97M, versus +4.82M expected. The pair made its weekly high of 1.3567 on Tuesday after U.S. Preliminary GDP came out at +2.0%, versus an expected +2.4% and the FOMC Meeting Minutes indicated possible further easing. Nevertheless, the rate retreated after the Spanish Treasury sold three and six month bills with yields of 5.11% and 5.23% respectively, both Euro era records for Spain. The rate continued sharply lower on Wednesday after dismal demand for German 10 year Bunds, of which the German government sold only 3.6B, versus the maximum of 6B. On Thursday, the rate consolidated despite a downgrade to Portugal’s debt rating to BB+ or junk status by Fitch’s and China’s PBOC, which announced it would lower reserve requirements for some banks by 50 bps. Eco data on Thursday had the German Ifo Business Climate Survey come out at 106.6, versus an expected print of 105.3. The rate then made its weekly low of 1.3211 on Friday after Italy sold its maximum of 8B in six month Treasury bills at an astronomical 6.5%, a Euro era record. The rate went on to close at 1.3231, showing an overall loss of -2.1% for the week.

USD/JPY gained substantially last week as asset flows favoured the U.S. Dollar and Japan reported mixed economic data. The rate began the week making its weekly low of 76.76 as the BOJ’s Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes reflected that one of its members, Ryuzo Miyao voted to increase the bank’s Asset Purchase Programme by ¥10T. The pair continued climbing as the Japanese Trade Balance showed a deficit of -0.46T, versus an expected deficit of -0.20T. The rate traded higher on Tuesday despite a lower U.S. Preliminary GDP number and dovish indications from the FOMC Meeting Minutes. The pair continued sharply higher on Wednesday after U.S. Durable Goods Orders increased by +0.7% m/m, versus an expected increase of only +0.1%. The rate then reversed on Thursday in quiet Thanksgiving Day trading after Tokyo Core CPI decreased by -0.5% y/y, versus an expected decline of -0.3%. Friday saw the rate make its weekly high of 77.78 before settling at 77.73, showing an overall gain of +1.0% from its previous weekly close.



GBP/USD extended the previous week’s losses as the BOE MPC Meeting Minutes showed members voted unanimously to hold rates steady and the Greenback gained on risk aversion. Cable began the week trading sharply lower after the UK Rightmove HPI declined by -3.1% m/m, versus a previous increase of +2.8%, and the United States reported a better than expected Existing Home Sales number. The pair consolidated on Tuesday after U.S. Preliminary GDP showed a slower than expected rate of growth and UK Public Sector Borrowing came out at 3.4B, versus an expected 4.1B. Cable resumed its slide on Wednesday after the BOE’s MPC Meeting Minutes showed a unanimous vote to keep the benchmark Official Bank Rate unchanged at 0.50% and the Asset Purchase Facility at £275B. Thursday saw Cable continue losing ground as UK Revised GDP came out showing growth of +0.5% q/q as was widely anticipated, and UK Preliminary Business Investment declining by -1.4% q/q, versus an expected decline of only -0.5%. The rate then made its weekly low of 1.5421 on Friday before settling at 1.5450, declining by -1.6% for the week.

AUD/USD lost considerable ground last week as risk assets were especially hard hit, and the rate reacted to weaker economic numbers out of China. The week began with the rate making its weekly high of 1.0012 before trading sharply lower as risk assets were pummelled on Eurozone uncertainty. The pair consolidated on Tuesday after a lower than expected U.S. Preliminary GDP number, and the Australian CB Leading Index came out showing an increase of +0.1% m/m, versus a previous reading of -0.2%. On Wednesday, the rate continued heading south making its weekly low of 0.9661 after news that Chinese Manufacturing PMI declined by 3 points to 48 from 51 in November, China is Australia’s largest trading partner. Nevertheless, Australia reported that Construction Work Done increased by +12.5% q/q, versus an expected increase of only +2.1%. The rate then rose on Thursday in quiet trading as the United States celebrated the Thanksgiving Day bank holiday. On Friday, the rate traded down to close the week at 0.9696, showing an overall decline of -3.6% from its previous weekly close.

USD/CAD gained substantially as softer commodity prices and massive risk aversion took its toll on the Loonie. The rate began the week rising sharply off of its weekly low of 1.0265 on Monday after negative news from the Eurozone put pressure on risk assets. The pair was further supported by Canadian Wholesale Sales, which increased by only +0.3% m/m, versus an expected increase of +0.6%. The rate declined on Tuesday after a lower U.S. Preliminary GDP number and Canadian Core Retail Sales, which increased by +0.5% m/m, versus +0.4% expected. The rate then resumed its rally on Wednesday as U.S. Durable Goods Orders came out better than expected. The pair then lost some ground on Thursday in quiet holiday trading. On Friday, the pair made its weekly high of 1.0522 before selling off somewhat to close the week at 1.0491, showing a gain of +2.1% for the week.

NZD/USD continued trading sharply lower last week as risk assets suffered from persistent uncertainty in the Eurozone. The week began with the rate trading off of its weekly high of 0.7573 as asset flows took down the commodity currencies. The rate consolidated on Tuesday after an unfavourable U.S. Preliminary GDP number and New Zealand Inflation Expectations came out at 2.8% versus a previous reading of 2.9%. On Wednesday, the rate traded sharply lower after Chinese PMI came out showing weakness and news of a deteriorating situation in Europe. The pair then rose somewhat on Thursday after the New Zealand Trade Balance came in showing a deficit of only -282M, considerably narrower than the -452M deficit that was expected. The rate then resumed its decline on Friday, making its weekly low of 0.7369 before trading up to close at 0.7387, a decline of -2.4% from its previous weekly close.

The Week Ahead

AUD: This week’s Australian economic calendar is about as quiet as last week, and it features the key Retail Sales data due out on Thursday. Monday has nothing of note scheduled, while Tuesday offers the tentatively scheduled HIA New Home Sales (last -3.5%) number. Wednesday then has Private Capital Expenditure (8.2%) and Private Sector Credit (0.4%), and Thursday offers Building Approvals (3.6%), the highlighted Retail Sales (0.4%) data, and Commodity Prices (last 19.4%). That concludes the week since Friday is relatively quiet. Resistance for AUD/USD is seen at 0.9925, 1.0200/55 and 1.0370, with support noted at 0.9622, 0.9386 and 0.9220.

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• AUD/USD

CAD: This week’s Canadian economic calendar is busier than last week, and it features the key Canadian Employment Report due out on Friday. Monday offers nothing of note, so Tuesday starts the week with the release of the Canadian Current Account (-11.3B). Wednesday then features a speech by Governing Council Member Murray, while Thursday has little of note scheduled for release. Friday then concludes the week with the highlighted Employment Change (17.2K) and Unemployment Rate (7.3%) data. Resistance for USD/CAD is seen at 1.0522, 1.0656 and 1.0853. Support shows at 1.0437, 1.0198 and 1.0079.

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• CAD/USD

EUR: This week’s Eurozone economic calendar is about as busy as last week, and it features the ECOFIN Meetings scheduled for Wednesday. Monday begins the week’s highlights with German Preliminary CPI (0.1%), the EZ M3 Money Supply (3.4%) and GfK German Consumer Climate (5.2), while Tuesday has little of note scheduled. Wednesday is busy, featuring German Retail Sales (0.1%), French Consumer Spending (0.1%), a speech by ECB President Draghi, the German Unemployment Change (-6K), the highlighted ECOFIN Meetings, EZ CPI Flash Estimate (3.0%) and the EZ Unemployment Rate (10.2%). Thursday then concludes the week with another speech by ECB President Draghi, since Friday offers little notable data. Resistance for EUR/USD is seen at 1.3362 and 1.3614, with support showing at 1.3145, 1.3055 and 1.2873.

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• EUR/USD

GBP: This week’s U.K. economic calendar is about as active as last week, and it will feature the key Inflation Report Hearings scheduled for Monday. Monday also has CBI Realized Sales (-12) due out, while Tuesday features Nationwide HPI (-0.1%), Net Lending to Individuals (1.0B) and the Autumn Forecast Statement. Wednesday offers GfK Consumer Confidence (-33), Thursday features the Halifax HPI (Dec 1st -7th, last 1.2%) and Manufacturing PMI (47.2) and Friday concludes the week with Construction PMI (52.2). Resistance to the topside for GBP/USD shows at 1.5714 and 1.5888, while support for the pair is expected at 1.5329 and 1.5270.

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• GBP/USD

JPY: This week’s Japanese economic calendar is a bit busier than last week, and features the key Retail Sales data scheduled for release on Tuesday. Monday starts the week with a tentatively scheduled speech by BOJ Governor Shirakawa, while Tuesday offers Household Spending (-1.4%) and the highlighted Retail Sales (0.8%) data. Wednesday features Preliminary Industrial Production (1.1%) and Average Cash Earnings (0.0%), and Thursday is quiet. Friday then features Capital Spending (-3.4%) to end the week. Resistance for USD/JPY currently shows up at 79.52/80.22 and 81.46, with support indicated at 77.48, 76.10 and 75.65.

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• JPY/USD

NZD: This week’s New Zealand economic calendar is just as quiet as last week, and it will feature NBNZ Business Confidence (last 13.2) due out on Monday. Since Tuesday, Thursday and Friday have little of note scheduled for release, the next and last highlight of the week will be on Wednesday when the New Zealand Building Consents (last -17.1%) data is due out. The chart for NZD/USD shows resistance at 0.7467 and 0.7962. On the downside, technical support is expected at 0.7343 and 0.7115.

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• NZD/USD

USD: This week’s U.S. economic calendar offers more highlights than last week, with the main focus being on the key U.S. Employment Report due out on Friday. Monday has New Home Sales (313K), while Tuesday offers the S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI (-3.0%), CB Consumer Confidence (43.8), speeches by FOMC Member Yellen and Raskin, and the tentatively scheduled Treasury Currency Report. Wednesday features a speech by FOMC Member Kocherlakota, the closely watched ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (131K) number, Revised Nonfarm Productivity (2.6%), Chicago PMI (58.6), Pending Home Sales (1.3%), Crude Oil Inventories (last -6.2M) and the release of the Fed’s Beige Book. Thursday’s highlights include Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (390K) and ISM Manufacturing PMI (51.6), while Friday ends the week with the highlighted Non-Farm Payrolls (119K), Unemployment Rate (9.0%) and Average Hourly Earnings (0.2%) data.

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EUR/USD extended the previous week’s losses as concerns over contagion in the Eurozone weighed heavily on the rate. The week began on a soft note after making its weekly high of 1.3792 as the Bank of Italy auctioned €3B in five year bonds which yielded an average of 6.29%, a Euro era record. Italian PM Berlusconi had resigned over the weekend with new PM Mario Monti ready to assume power. Monday’s eco data had EZ Industrial Production drop by -2.0%, just slightly better than the -2.1% drop expected. The rate continued sharply lower on Tuesday after German ZEW Economic Sentiment came out at -55.2, versus an expected print of -51.8, while EZ Flash GDP came out at +0.2% as widely expected. Other numbers out on Tuesday included U.S. Core Retail Sales, which gained by +0.6% m/m, versus an expected increase of only +0.2% and U.S. Core PPI, which came out with a flat reading versus an expected increase of +0.1%. Wednesday saw the rate continue heading south as Italian 10 year bonds continued trading with yields over 7%, while Mario Monti was sworn in as new Italian PM. Wednesday’s data had EZ Core CPI and CPI up by +1.6% and 3.0% y/y respectively, both as widely expected. U.S. numbers had Core CPI up by +0.1% as widely anticipated but U.S. CPI declined by -0.1%, versus an expected flat reading. The rate made its weekly low of 1.3421 on Thursday after weak demand for bonds from auctions in Spain and France, with Spanish 10 year bonds averaging a yield of 6.975%, a Euro era record. The rate then recovered somewhat after the U.S. Philly Fed Manufacturing Index came out at 3.6, considerably lower than 8.7 print expected. In other U.S. numbers, Housing Starts increased by +0.63M, versus +0.61M expected, and Building Permits, which increased by +0.65M, versus +0.60M expected. The pair then recovered on Friday as risk sentiments improved after speculation that the ECB would go through the IMF to bailout the troubled Eurozone economies. EUR/USD went on to close at 1.3523, showing an overall decline of -1.7% from its previous weekly close.

USD/JPY continued the previous week’s decline as Japan reported better than expected economic numbers and the BOJ left rates unchanged. The week began with the rate trading lower after Japanese GDP came out at +1.5% q/q as widely expected, while the Japanese Preliminary GDP Price Index declined by -1.9% y/y, slightly better than the -2.2% decline that was expected. Also out late Monday was Japanese Revised Industrial Production, which declined by -1.9%, versus a decline of -2.2% that was expected. The rate continued lower on Tuesday after making its weekly high of 77.49 despite better than expected U.S. Retail Sales and PPI data. Wednesday saw the rate consolidate after the BOJ left its benchmark Overnight Call Rate unchanged at <0.10% as was widely expected. The pair continued losing ground on Thursday and Friday after comments from BOJ Governor Shirakawa who stated, “The board agreed that uncertainty over Japan''s economy is increasing but there is a difference among board members on the nuance regarding the view,” The rate then went on to close at 76.88, showing an overall decline of -0.3% for the week.

GBP/USD lost ground last week as the BOE released a dovish quarterly inflation report and the UK reported mixed economic data. Cable began the week trading lower after making its weekly high of 1.6092, as Sterling was pressured by events in the Eurozone and in the absence of any significant economic data out of either the UK or the United States. The rate continued dropping sharply on Tuesday after UK CPI came out at 5.0% y/y, versus an expected 5.1% and the BOE’s Inflation Letter stated that, “The main risk facing the UK economy continues to come from the uncertain global economic outlook, and the extent to which weaker global economic conditions threaten the recovery, and to postpone the necessary rebalancing of the UK economy.” On Wednesday, the BOE released its quarterly Inflation Report in which it stated that, “The prospects for the UK economy have worsened. Global demand slowed. And concerns about the solvency of several euro-area governments intensified, increasing strains in banking and some sovereign funding markets.” Thursday saw Cable make its weekly low of 1.5690 before recovering and trading higher after UK Retail Sales rose by +0.6% m/m, versus an expected decline of -0.2%. Cable then traded higher on Friday as risk appetite increased, bringing the rate to close at 1.5804, showing an overall decline of -1.6% from its previous weekly close.

AUD/USD extended the previous week’s losses as events in the Eurozone made risk assets less attractive and Australia reported mixed economic data. The week began with the rate trading lower after making its weekly high of 1.0340 in the absence of any significant economic data out of either the United States or Australia. The pair continued heading south on Tuesday as the RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes indicated that, “Members were informed that foreign exchange markets had remained volatile. The euro, Australian dollar and many other currencies traded in a wide range against the US dollar, with the Australian dollar moving through a 14 cent range over the month.” Economic numbers on Tuesday had Australian New Motor Vehicle Sales increase by +1.1% m/m, versus a previous decline of -1.4% and the MI Leading Index, which declined by -0.3% m/m, versus a previous rise of +0.7%. The rate continued its descent the rest of the week, consolidating on Friday to close at 1.0007, showing an overall decline of -2.7% for the week.

USD/CAD rose last week as the U.S. Dollar was favoured over the Canadian Dollar and risk assets were pressured by events in Europe. The rate began the week on a strong note, trading higher off of its weekly low of 1.0087 in the absence of any significant economic data out of either country. The pair continued strengthening on Tuesday despite Canadian Manufacturing Sales rising by +2.6% m/m, versus +1.1% that was expected. The rate continued higher on Wednesday and Thursday as Canadian Foreign Securities Purchases increased to 7.35B, versus 9.24B expected. The rate then made its weekly high of 1.0301 on Friday as the Canadian Leading Index increased by +0.2% m/m and Canadian Core CPI rising by +0.3% m/m, versus an expected increase of only +0.2%. The rate then sold off on profit taking to close the week at 1.0275, a gain of +1.7%.

NZD/USD extended the previous week’s losses as risk assets were pressured and despite New Zealand reporting encouraging economic data. The week began with the rate making its weekly high of 0.7915 on Monday after New Zealand Retail Sales showed an increase of +2.2% q/q, versus an expected rise of only +0.6%, while Core Retail Sales increased by +2.4% q/q, versus a +0.7% rise that was expected. The pair then traded sharply lower extending its losses into Tuesday. The rate continued dropping on Wednesday after New Zealand PPI Input rose by +0.6% q/q as was widely anticipated. The rate continued tanking the rest of the week making its weekly low of 0.7550 on Friday before trading slightly higher to close at 0.7562, showing an impressive loss of -3.8% for the week.

The Week Ahead

AUD: This week’s Australian economic calendar is quieter than last week, and it features the key CB Leading Index survey due out on Wednesday. Monday features a speech by RBA Assistant Governor Debelle, but Tuesday has nothing of note due out. Wednesday then has the highlighted CB Leading Index (last -0.1%), in addition to Construction Work Done (2.1%). That concludes the week since Thursday and Friday are relatively quiet. Resistance for AUD/USD is seen at 1.0341, 1.0439 and 1.0752, with support noted at 0.9864, 0.9622 and 0.9386.

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• AUD/USD

CAD: This week’s Canadian economic calendar is quieter than last week, and it features the key Canadian Retail Sales data due out on Tuesday. Monday features just Wholesale Sales (0.6%), while Tuesday offers the highlighted Core Retail Sales (0.4%) and Retail Sales (0.5%) data. On Wednesday, BOC Governor Carney speaks to end the quiet week since Thursday and Friday have little of note scheduled for release. Resistance for USD/CAD is seen at 1.0384 and 1.0656. Support shows at 1.0056, 0.9892 and 0.9779.

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• CAD/USD

EUR: This week’s Eurozone economic calendar is about as busy as last week, and it features the German Ifo Business Climate Survey results due out on Thursday. Monday begins the week’s highlights with EZ Current Account (-3.2B), while Tuesday has little of note scheduled. Wednesday is busy, featuring French Flash Manufacturing PMI (47.6), French Flash Services PMI (44.5), German Flash Manufacturing PMI (48.4), German Flash Services PMI (50.2), EZ Flash Manufacturing PMI (46.6), EZ Flash Services PMI (46.1) and EZ Industrial New Orders (-2.4%). Thursday then concludes the week with the highlighted German Ifo Business Climate survey (105.5), plus the Belgium NBB Business Climate survey (-11.3), since Friday offers little notable data. Resistance for EUR/USD is seen at 1.3614, 1.3859 and 1.4247, with support showing at 1.3422 and 1.3145.

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• EUR/USD

GBP: This week’s U.K. economic calendar is about as active as last week, and it will feature the key MPC Meeting Minutes due out on Wednesday from the BOE. Monday has the Rightmove HPI (last 2.8%) due out, and Tuesday features Public Sector Net Borrowing (4.3B). Wednesday offers the highlighted MPC Meeting Minutes (0-0-9), as well as BBA Mortgage Approvals (32.3K), while Thursday concludes the week’s highlights with Revised GDP (0.5%), Preliminary Business Investment (last 11.6%) and CBI Industrial Order Expectations (-19) since Friday has little of note scheduled. Resistance to the topside for GBP/USD shows at 1.5888 and 1.6151/65, while support for the pair is expected at 1.5691 and 1.5271.

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• GBP/USD

JPY: This week’s Japanese economic calendar is quieter than last week, and features the BOJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes scheduled for Monday. Also out on Monday will be the Japanese Trade Balance (-0.20T), while Tuesday offers little of note. Wednesday is a Japanese Bank Holiday, and Thursday is also quiet. Friday then features Tokyo Core CPI (-0.3%) to end the week. Resistance for USD/JPY currently shows up at 77.50 and 79.52, with support indicated at 76.57 and 75.65 ahead of the key psychological 75.00 level.

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• JPY/USD

NZD: This week’s New Zealand economic calendar is a bit quieter than last week, and it will feature Inflation Expectations data (last 2.9%) due out on Tuesday. Since Monday, Wednesday and Friday have little of note scheduled for release, the next and last highlight of the week will be on Thursday when the New Zealand Trade Balance (-454M) is due out. The chart for NZD/USD shows resistance at 0.7917, 0.8000 and 0.8241. On the downside, technical support is expected at 0.7466, 0.7343 and 0.7115.

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• NZD/USD

USD: This week’s U.S. economic calendar offers fewer highlights than last week, with the main focus being on the key Preliminary GDP data due out on Tuesday. Monday has Existing Home Sales (4.82M), while Tuesday offers the highlighted Preliminary GDP (2.5%) data, as well as a speech by FOMC Member Kocherlakota and the most recent FOMC Meeting Minutes release. Wednesday features Core Durable Goods Orders (0.1%), Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (387K), Core PCE Price Index (0.2%), Durable Goods Orders (-1.1%), Personal Spending (0.4%), Revised University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (64.6), Crude Oil Inventories (last -1.1M) and the tentatively scheduled Treasury Currency Report. Thursday is the U.S. Thanksgiving Day Bank Holiday, and Friday has nothing of note scheduled for release.

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EUR/USD lost some ground last week as continued political uncertainty in Greece and now Italy took its toll on the rate. The week began on a soft note as Italian 10-year bond yields traded over the 6.6% level and the ECB entered the market to support the bonds. Also weighing on the rate was EZ Retail Sales, which declined by -0.7% m/m, versus an expected flat reading, and German Industrial Production, which declined by -2.7% m/m, versus an expected decline of only -0.7%. The rate rebounded on Tuesday, trading higher as the German Trade Surplus expanded to +€15.3B. Wednesday saw the rate drop sharply after making its weekly high of 1.3858 as Italian 10-year bond yields hit a new Euro era record trading as high as 7.4%. Portugal, Ireland and Greece all sought bailouts from the EU/IMF after their 10 year bond yields reached similar levels. The bond sell-off was triggered by LCH Clearnet raising their deposit requirements for trading in Italian bonds. On Thursday, the pair made its weekly low of 1.3483 before trading higher after Italian 10-year bond yields subsided below the 7% level, and Italy sold €5B in one-year bills, with a yield of 6.087%. Also, the U.S Trade Balance showed a narrower than expected deficit of -43.1B, versus the consensus of a -46.1B deficit. Friday saw the rate continue higher as both Italian PM Berlusconi and Greek PM Papandreou prepared to step down with former European Commissioner Mario Monte set to replace Berlusconi and PM Lucas Papademos already appointed to replace Papandreou. EUR/USD went on to close at 1.3749, showing an overall loss of -0.3% from its previous weekly close.

USD/JPY retreated last week after the previous week’s round of intervention by the BOJ and despite weaker economic data out of Japan. Monday started with the rate trading lower after making its weekly high of 78.17 in the absence of any significant economic data out of either country. The pair continued heading south Tuesday and Wednesday despite Japanese Core Machinery Orders declining by -8.2% m/m, versus an expected decline on only -7.3%. The rate continued heading south on Thursday despite a narrower than expected U.S. Trade Deficit and favourable Initial Jobless Claims number and Japanese Tertiary Industry Activity declining by -0.7% m/m, versus a consensus of a -0.4% decline. On Friday, the pair made its weekly low of 77.04 before settling at 77.13, showing an overall loss of -1.4% for the week.

GBP/USD gained fractionally as the BOE left rates unchanged and the UK reported mixed economic data. Cable began the week trading marginally higher as the UK reported the Halifax HPI increased by +1.2% m/m, versus an expected increase of only +0.1%. On Tuesday, the rate made its weekly high of 1.6129 despite the UK BRC Retail Sales Monitor declining by -0.6% y/y, versus a previous reading of +0.3%, also, the UK RICS House Price Balance declined by -24%, versus an expected decline of -23%, and UK Manufacturing Production increasing by +0.2% as was widely anticipated. Wednesday saw Cable drop sharply as Sterling felt the effects of European uncertainty due to rising bond yields in the Eurozone. Adding to the rate’s weakness was the UK Trade Balance, which showed a deficit of -9.8B, versus -8.0B expected. The rate made its weekly low of 1.5868 on Thursday after the BOE left its benchmark Official Bank Rate unchanged at 0.50% and the Asset Purchase Facility at 275B. Nevertheless, Cable recovered trading higher after some progress on the European debt situation put pressure on the Greenback. On Friday, the rate continued trading higher despite the UK PPI Input declining by -0.8% m/m, versus an expected flat reading. GBP/USD went on to close the week at 1.6064, showing an overall gain of +0.2%.

AUD/USD lost ground last week as the Australian Dollar sold off on risk aversion and despite better than expected economic data out of Australia. The rate began the week trading lower after making its weekly high of 1.0424 as Australia reported ANZ Job Advertisements declined by -0.7% m/m, versus a previous reading of -2.2%. The rate then consolidated on Tuesday after the Australian Trade Balance showed a surplus of +2.56B, versus an expected surplus of +3.02B, and the NAB Business Confidence Survey, which came in at 2, versus a previous reading of -1. On Wednesday, the pair declined sharply as risk aversion took hold of the market in light of the situation in Europe, and despite Australian Home Loans increasing by +2.2%,versus +1.7% expected. The rate then made its weekly low of 1.0051 on Thursday before trading higher as Australian Employment Change showed 10.1K new jobs as widely expected, and the Australian Unemployment Rate dropped to 5.2% versus 5.3% expected. The pair continued climbing on Friday ending at 1.0277, showing an overall loss of -1.0% from its previous weekly close.

USD/CAD declined somewhat last week as Canada reported better than expected economic data. The week began with the rate declining on Monday in the absence of any significant economic data out of either country. The pair continued heading south on Tuesday making its weekly low of 1.0076 after Canadian Housing Starts showed an increase of +208K, versus an expected increase of +198K. The rate then rallied sharply on Wednesday as risk assets felt the consequences of uncertainty in Europe and Canada reported NHPI increased +0.2% m/m as was widely anticipated. The rate then made its weekly high of 1.0264 on Thursday before dropping sharply after the Canadian Trade Balance showed a surplus of +1.02B, versus an expected deficit of -0.5B. USD/CAD then went on to close the week at 1.0103 showing an overall loss of -0.8%.

NZD/USD came off last week with risk aversion due to the European situation favouring the Greenback with very little significant economic data out of New Zealand. The week began with the rate making its weekly high of 0.7996 on Monday with the pair continuing to appreciate marginally on Tuesday. The pair then got hammered on Wednesday as risk aversion and Italian bond yields took the Greenback higher against all the major currencies. Thursday saw the pair make its weekly low of 0.7730 as the REINZ HPI declined by -0.3% m/m, versus a previous reading of +1.7%. Also out was the New Zealand Business NZ Manufacturing Index, which declined to 46.5 in October. NZD/USD then rallied on Friday as risk appetite increased, bringing the rate to close at 0.7849, showing an overall loss of -1.0% from its previous weekly close.

The Week Ahead

AUD: This week’s Australian economic calendar is quieter than last week, and it features the key RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes due out on Tuesday. Monday has nothing of note due out, so Tuesday starts the week off with the highlighted Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, as well as New Motor Vehicle Sales (last -1.5%). Wednesday features the MI Leading Index (last 0.8%) and the Wage Price Index (0.9%). Thursday then concludes the week’s highlights with a speech by RBA Governor Stevens. Resistance for AUD/USD is seen at 1.0445/98, 1.0727/63 and 1.1079, with support noted at 1.0201/14, 1.0118 and 1.0052.

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• AUD/USD

CAD: This week’s Canadian economic calendar is busier than last week, and it features the key Canadian CPI data due out on Friday. Monday features a speech by BOC Governor Carney, while Tuesday’s highlights include Manufacturing Sales (1.1%). Wednesday has little of note scheduled, and Thursday features Foreign Securities Purchases (9.24B). Friday ends the week’s highlights with a speech by Governing Council Member Boivin, as well as the featured Core CPI (0.2%) and CPI (0.1%) data, and the Leading Index (0.2%). Resistance for USD/CAD is seen at 1.0264, 1.0384 and 1.0656. Support shows at 1.0041, 0.9891 and 0.9739

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• CAD/USD

EUR: This week’s Eurozone economic calendar is a bit busier than last week, and it features the German ZEW Economic Sentiment Survey results due out on Tuesday. Monday begins the week’s highlights with EZ Industrial Production (-2.1%), while Tuesday offers French Preliminary GDP (0.3%), German Preliminary GDP (0.5%), French Preliminary Non-Farm Payrolls (0.3%), the highlighted German ZEW Economic Sentiment survey (-51.7), the EZ ZEW Economic Sentiment survey (-52.7) and EZ Flash GDP (0.2%). Wednesday’s highlights include EZ CPI (3.0%) and Core CPI (1.6%), and Thursday has little of note due out. Friday then concludes the week with German PPI (0.2%). Resistance for EUR/USD is seen at 1.4246 and 1.4548, with support showing at 1.3483 and 1.3145.

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• EUR/USD

GBP: This week’s U.K. economic calendar is about as active as last week, and it will feature the key Claimant Count Change data due out on Wednesday. Monday has nothing notable due out, so Tuesday begins the week with Nationwide Consumer Confidence (scheduled 15th-18th, 45), CPI (5.1%), RPI (5.5%) and the tentatively scheduled BOE Inflation Letter. Wednesday then features the release of the highlighted Claimant Count Change (20.8K) data, as well as the Average Earnings Index (2.5%), a speech by BOE Governor King, and the BOE Inflation Report. Thursday then concludes the week’s highlights with Retail Sales (-0.3%). Resistance to the topside for GBP/USD shows at 1.6151/65 and 1.6617, while support for the pair is expected at 1.5851/89 and 1.5271.

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• GBP/USD

JPY: This week’s Japanese economic calendar is busier than last week, and features the BOJ Rate Decision that is tentatively scheduled for Wednesday. Monday starts the week’s highlights off with Preliminary GDP (1.5%) and the Preliminary GDP Price Index (-2.2%). Tuesday has little of note due out, while Wednesday features the highlighted BOJ Overnight Call Rate Decision (<0.10%), as well as the associated BOJ Monetary Policy Statement and Press Conference. Thursday will conclude the week with the BOJ Monthly Report since Friday has no substantial data due out. Resistance for USD/JPY currently shows up at 77.85 and 80.22, with support indicated at 76.09 and 75.65 ahead of the key psychological 75.00 level.

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• JPY/USD

NZD: This week’s New Zealand economic calendar is about as quiet as last week, and it will feature Core Retail Sales (0.7%) and Retail Sales (0.6%) data due out on Monday. Since Tuesday and Wednesday have little of note scheduled, the next highlight of the week will be on Thursday when PPI Input (0.6%) is due out. That will conclude the week’s releases because Friday has nothing significant due out. The chart for NZD/USD shows resistance at 0.8241 and 0.8543. On the downside, technical support is expected at 0.7731 and 0.7468.

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• NZD/USD

USD: This week’s U.S. economic calendar offers more highlights than last week, with the main focus being on the key U.S. Retail Sales data due out on Tuesday. Monday has nothing of note due out, while Tuesday offers a speech by FOMC Members Evans and Fisher, as well as Core Retail Sales (0.2%), Retail Sales (0.3%), PPI (-0.1%), Core PPI (0.2%), the Empire State Manufacturing Index (-2.0), and Business Inventories (0.2%). Wednesday features Core CPI (0.1%), CPI (0.0%), TIC Long-Term Purchases (63.4B), the Capacity Utilization Rate (77.7%), Industrial Production (0.5%), and Crude Oil Inventories (last -1.4M). On Thursday, important releases include Building Permits (0.60M), Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (397K), Housing Starts (0.61M), the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (9.3) and the tentatively scheduled Mortgage Delinquencies number (last 8.44%). Friday then concludes the week with the tentatively scheduled Treasury Currency Report as the primary highlight.

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EUR/USD gave back the previous week’s gains last week as the ECB unexpectedly cut rates and as the lack of a viable solution to the European financial crisis continues to weigh on the Euro. The rate began the week on a soft note after making its weekly high of 1.4200 as yields on Italian 10-year bonds exceeded the 6% level and German Retail Sales increased by only +0.4% m/m, versus a consensus of a +1.1% increase. Also out on Monday were the EZ CPI Flash Estimate showing a +3.0% rise y/y edging the consensus of a +2.9% rise, and the EZ Unemployment Rate, which rose to 10.2% versus 10% that was expected. Tuesday saw the rate make its weekly low of 1.3607 after Greek Prime Minister Papandreous called for a referendum for the second Greek bailout raising renewed concerns over the crisis. Tuesday’s economic data had the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI come out at 58.4, missing the consensus of a 59.2 print. On Wednesday, the rate reversed direction and began trading higher as the U.S. Fed left the benchmark Fed Funds Rate unchanged at <0.25% as widely expected. The FOMC statement noted that, “The Committee continues to expect a moderate pace of economic growth over coming quarters and consequently anticipates that the unemployment rate will decline only gradually toward levels that the Committee judges to be consistent with its dual mandate.” Also out was the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change showing 110K new jobs, versus an expected increase of 102K. The pair continued trading higher on Thursday as the ECB lowered its benchmark Minimum Rate Bid by 25 bps to 1.25% from 1.50%. In the accompanying statement, new ECB President Draghi noted that “the ongoing tensions in financial markets are likely to dampen the pace of economic growth in the euro area in the second half of the year and beyond.” Thursday’s U.S. numbers had the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI come out at 52.9, versus 53.7 expected. On Friday, the rate resumed its downtrend after the G20 concluded their meeting in Cannes as leaders agreed to “to further strengthen global financial safety nets and support the IMF in putting forward the new Precautionary and Liquidity Line.” Friday’s eco-data had U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls increase by +80K, versus an expected increase of +97K, while German Factory Orders declined by -4.3%, significantly more than the increase of +0.1% that was expected. EUR/USD went on to close at 1.3770, showing an overall decline of -2.8 from its previous weekly close.



USD/JPY rocketed last week after making a new all time low as the BOJ unilaterally intervened in the market. The pair began the week by making its weekly and a new all time low of 75.56. The new low prompted the BOJ to intervene in the market, taking the rate to its weekly high of 79.52 in the largest one day Yen intervention ever. “We are engaged in a war of nerves,” stated Finance Minister Jun Azumi adding that “We will closely monitor developments and make appropriate decisions at appropriate times.” Data released on Tuesday had the BOJ selling between ¥7.38 trillion to ¥7.88 trillion in Monday’s intervention. The rate consolidated on Tuesday, erasing almost a third of its initial gains as the effects of the intervention diminished, although still higher on the day. The pair retreated somewhat on Wednesday as the U.S. Fed left rates unchanged and consolidated lower Thursday. On Friday, the rate rose somewhat as the U.S. reported the Unemployment Rate had decreased to 9.0% from 9.1%. USD/JPY went on to close the week at 78.20, an overall gain of 3.1% for the week.

GBP/USD lost some ground last week as the UK reported considerably weaker manufacturing data which may support further easing by the BOE. The week began with Cable coming off of its weekly high of 1.6164 after the UK Net Lending to Individuals increased by 1.0B m/m, versus an expected increase of +0.9B. The rate continued declining Tuesday as UK Manufacturing PMI came out at 47.4 versus an expected print of 50.0. Nevertheless, UK Preliminary GDP increased by +0.5% q/q, beating the consensus of a +0.4% increase. Cable consolidated on Wednesday after UK Construction PMI came out at 53.9 versus 50.1 that was expected, and the U.S. Fed left rates unchanged. The rate made its weekly low of 1.5874 on Thursday after UK Services PMI came out at 51.3, versus 51.9 expected, before trading higher. Cable declined somewhat on Friday bringing the rate to close at 1.6016, showing an overall decline of -0.7% for the week.

AUD/USD gave back most of its previous week’s gains last week as the RBA lowered interest rates and Australia reported weaker economic data. The week began with the rate making its weekly high of 1.0714 before trading sharply lower. The rate continued heading south on Tuesday as the RBA unexpectedly lowered the benchmark Cash Rate to 4.50% from 4.75%. In the accompanying statement, RBA Governor Stevens stated that, “The exchange rate has been very variable over the past few months, but on the whole has remained at historically high levels. Over the past year, the board has maintained a mildly restrictive stance of monetary policy, in view of its concerns about inflation.” The rate consolidated Wednesday as Australian Building Approvals came out at a dismal -13.6, versus -4.5 that was expected. Thursday saw the rate make its weekly low of 1.0201 before subsequently rallying, as Australia reported Retail Sales increased +0.4%, versus +0.5 expected. On Friday, the pair declined somewhat after the RBA Monetary Policy Statement indicated that, “the outlook for growth in many advanced economies remains subdued.” AUD/USD went on to close at 1.0383 showing an overall decline of -3.1% from its previous weekly close.

USD/CAD gained ground last week as Canada reported weaker than expected economic data. The rate began the week rallying off of its weekly low of 0.9912 on Monday despite Canadian GDP coming out showing an increase of +0.3% m/m, versus an expected increase of +0.2%. The rate continued sharply higher on Tuesday as risk aversion returned to the markets. Wednesday saw the rate reverse direction and decline after the U.S. Fed left rates unchanged. On Thursday, the rate continued sliding as the U.S. reported a weaker ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI number. Friday saw the rate make its weekly high of 1.0227 after Canadian Employment Change showed a decline of -54.0K, significantly lower than the increase of +16.3K jobs that was expected. Also, Canada’s Unemployment Rate increased to 7.3% from 7.2% and Canadian Building Permits, which declined by -4.9% m/m, notably more than the increase of +2.7% that was expected. USD/CAD went on to close at 1.0165, showing an overall gain of +2.4% for the week.

NZD/USD lost considerable ground last week as a combination of risk aversion and weaker economic data out of New Zealand took the rate down. The week began with the pair making its weekly high of 0.8226 before declining sharply as New Zealand Building Consents dropped by a whopping -17.1% m/m, versus a previous increase of +12.5% revised upward to +16.6%. The rate continued its steep decline on Tuesday after the New Zealand Labour Cost Index increased by only +0.5% q/q, versus an expected increase of +0.8%. The pair continued dropping on Wednesday making its weekly low of 0.7804 on Thursday before reversing and trading higher. The rate consolidated on Friday, ending the week at 0.7947, an impressive decline of -3.5% overall for the week.

The Week Ahead

AUD: This week’s Australian economic calendar is considerably busier than last week, and it features the key Aussie Employment Report due out on Thursday. Monday starts the week off with ANZ Job Advertisements (-2.1%) and Tuesday’s offerings include the Aussie Trade Balance (3.04B), and NAB Business Confidence (last -2). Wednesday features Westpac Consumer Sentiment (last 0.4%) and Home Loans (1.7%), while a busy Thursday offers a speech by RBA Assistant Governor Lowe and MI Inflation Expectations (last 3.1%), plus the highlighted Employment Change (10.3K) and Unemployment Rate (5.3%) data. That concludes the week since Friday has little of note scheduled. Resistance for AUD/USD is seen at 1.0498, 1.0751/63 and 1.1079, with support noted at 1.0320, 1.0201 and 1.0116.

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• AUD/USD

CAD: This week’s Canadian economic calendar is less active than last week, and it features the key Canadian Trade Balance due out on Thursday. After Sunday’s Daylight Saving Time shift, Monday is quiet. Tuesday’s highlights include a speech by BOC Governor Carney and Housing Starts (201K). Wednesday features the NHPI (0.2%), while Thursday offers the highlighted Trade Balance data (-0.5B). Friday is the Remembrance Day Bank Holiday in Canada. Resistance for USD/CAD is seen at 1.0211/62, 1.0384 and 1.0656. Support shows at 1.0042 and 0.9891.

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• CAD/USD

EUR: This week’s Eurozone economic calendar is quieter than last week, and it features the ECOFIN Meetings on Tuesday. Monday begins the week with Sentix Investor Confidence (-19.7), EZ Retail Sales (0.0%) and German Industrial Production (-0.7%). Tuesday offers the all day ECOFIN Meetings, while Wednesday has little of note. Thursday features French Industrial Production (-0.6%) and the ECB Monthly Bulletin, while Friday concludes the week with a French Bank Holiday. Resistance for EUR/USD is seen at 1.3913 and 1.4246, with support showing at 1.3607/52 and 1.3362.

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• EUR/USD

GBP: This week’s U.K. economic calendar is about as active as last week, and it will feature the BOE Rate Decision due out on Thursday. Monday begins the week with the Halifax HPI (0.1%), while Tuesday features the BRC Retail Sales Monitor (last 0.3%), the RICS House Price Balance (-23%), Manufacturing Production (0.2%) and the NIESR GDP Estimate (last 0.5%). Wednesday’s highlights include the UK Trade Balance (-7.9B), and Thursday features the BOE Rate Decision (0.50%), plus the Asset Purchase Facility (275B) and the tentatively scheduled MPC Rate Statement. Friday ends the week with PPI Input (0.0%). Resistance to the topside for GBP/USD shows at 1.6151/64 and 1.6473, while support for the pair is expected at 1.5851/89 and 1.5687.

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• GBP/USD

JPY: This week’s Japanese economic calendar is notably quieter compared with last week, and features Core Machinery Orders (-7.2%) due out on Thursday. Friday concludes the week with Tertiary Industry Activity (0.4%). Resistance for USD/JPY currently shows up at 79.52 and 80.22, with support indicated at 77.85 and 75.65 ahead f the psychological 75.00 level

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• JPY/USD

NZD: This week’s New Zealand economic calendar is less busy than last week, and it will feature the RBNZ Financial Stability Report due out on Thursday. Friday tentatively offers the REINZ HPI (last 1.7%) that can be released as late as November 14th. The chart for NZD/USD shows resistance at 0.8066, 0.8107 and 0.8240. On the downside, technical support is expected at 0.7804/59 and 0.7635.

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• NZD/USD

USD: This week’s U.S. economic calendar offers fewer highlights than last week, with the main focus being on the key U.S. Trade Balance data due out on Thursday. Monday has nothing of note due out. Tuesday offers speeches by FOMC Members Kocherlakota and Plosser, while Wednesday has Fed Chairman Bernanke speaking, as well as Crude Oil Inventories (last 1.8M). On Thursday, releases include the highlighted U.S. Trade Balance (-46.1B), Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (402K), Import Prices (0.3%), speeches by FOMC Member Evans and Yellen, and Fed Chairman Bernanke, plus the Federal Budget Balance (-110.3B). Friday concludes the week with the Veteran’s Day Bank Holiday and the release of the Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey (61.1).

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EUR/USD gained sharply last week as risk appetite soared and some progress was made on resolving the European financial crisis. The week began on a positive note with the rate rising despite no firm agreements from the weekend’s EU summit. Eco data on Monday had EZ Flash Manufacturing PMI print at 47.3, versus 48.1 that was expected, while EZ Flash Services PMI came out at 47.2, versus an expected print of 48.6. Both numbers were at 27 month lows. The rate then retreated Tuesday ahead of Wednesday’s EU summit. Tuesday’s numbers had U.S. CB Consumer Confidence come out at 39.8, versus 46.1 expected, and GfK German Consumer Climate, which came out at 5.3, beating the consensus of a 5.1 print. The rate then made its weekly low of 1.3798 on Wednesday as the EcoFin meeting was cancelled and the market had lower expectations for the EU summit. Wednesday’s economic data had U.S. Core Durable Goods rise by +1.7% m/m, considerably higher than the +0.5% expected, and U.S. New Home Sales, which increased to +313K versus +303K expected. Thursday saw the rate make its weekly high of 1.4246 after EU leaders at the EU summit agreed on a deal which imposes a 50% haircut on holders of Greek debt, substantially higher than the 21% agreed to in July, the write-down will bring Greece’s GDP to debt ratio down to 120% by 2020. Also, the EU agreed on a plan to leverage the EFSF by 4 or 5 times with details to be decided in November. Thursday’s economic numbers had U.S. Advance GDP rise by +2.5% q/q, edging the consensus of a +2.4% rise, and U.S. Pending Home Sales, which declined by -4.6% m/m, significantly lower than the consensus of a +0.2% increase. Also, German Preliminary CPI came out with a flat reading m/m, versus an expected increase of +0.1%. On Friday, the rate retreated somewhat on profit taking bringing the rate to close at 1.4156, showing an overall gain of +1.8% from its previous weekly close.

USD/JPY made yet another new all time low last week as the BOJ refrained from intervening in the market and announced it would expand its credit and asset purchase program. The week began with the rate trading lower after making its weekly high of 76.47 as the Japanese Trade Balance came out showing a narrower than expected deficit of -0.02T, versus -0.11% that was expected. The pair was range bound Tuesday and Wednesday as Japan’s Finance Minister Jun Azumi made comments inferring that Japan would take action against its rising currency, “We will not rule out every possible measure in dealing with this” he continued, “ I’ve just instructed the ministry staffers again to make preparations so that we can act in response to anything.” On Thursday, the pair made its weekly and a new all time low of 75.65 after the BOJ left the benchmark Overnight Call Rate unchanged at <0.10% as widely expected. In the Monetary Policy Statement the bank stated, “the Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided, by an 8-1 majority vote, to enhance monetary easing by increasing the total size of the Asset Purchase Program by about 5 trillion yen, from about 50 trillion yen to about 55 trillion yen”. The rate continued heading south on Friday ending the week at 75.74, a decline of -0.5% for the week.

GBP/USD extended the previous week’s gains rising sharply as risk appetite increased in the market. The week began on a positive note with the rate rising in the absence of any significant economic data out of either country. The rate consolidated on Tuesday as the UK reported a significantly narrower deficit in the nation’s Current Account, which showed a deficit of -2.0B, versus a deficit of -9.7B that was expected. In addition, the previous number was significantly revised from -9.4B to -4.1B. Wednesday saw the rate make its weekly low of 1.5889 as UK CBI Industrial Order Expectations came out at -18, significantly lower than the consensus of a -8 print. Cable then reversed and traded higher on Thursday as UK CBI Realized Sales came out at -11, beating the consensus of a -15 print. The rate continued rallying on Friday, making its weekly high of 1.6151 despite UK GfK Consumer Confidence survey printing at -32, versus an expected -30 print. GBP/USD went on to close the week at 1.6126 showing an overall gain of +1.0%.

AUD/USD soared last week on a combination of increased risk appetite and rising commodities prices. The rate began the week rising sharply after making its weekly low of 1.0312 on Monday after Australian PPI increased by only +0.6% q/q, versus +0.8% that was expected. Nevertheless, the rate rose sharply after Chinese HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI came out at 51.1, versus a previous reading of 49.9. The pair then began heading south on Tuesday after the Australian CB Leading Index declined by -0.1% m/m, versus a previous flat reading. On Wednesday, the rate weakened considerably after Australian Trimmed Mean CPI increased by only +0.3% q/q, versus an expected increase of +0.7%, while CPI increased by +0.6% q/q as widely expected. The pair then reversed and rallied strongly on Thursday, making its weekly high of 1.0750 as risk appetite surged after developments in Europe and a strong U.S. GDP number. The rate then retreated somewhat on Friday as traders squared positions ahead of the weekend bringing AUD/USD to close at 1.0709, showing an impressive gain of +3.4% for the week.

USD/CAD dropped below parity last week as the BOC left rates unchanged and risk appetite favoured the Canadian Dollar. The week began on a soft note with the rate reflecting renewed risk appetite in the market. Tuesday saw the rate jump after the BOC left its benchmark Overnight rate at 1.0% as was widely anticipated. Also out were Canadian Retail Sales, which increased by +0.5% m/m, while Core Retail Sales increased +0.4% m/m as widely expected. Nevertheless, the rally was short-lived with the rate resuming its decline on Wednesday as the BOC Monetary Policy Report stated, “"The Bank now expects that the Euro area—where these dynamics are most acute—will experience a brief recession." Thursday saw the rate extend its losses making its weekly low of 0.9891 as risk appetite increased and the U.S. reported a favourable GDP number. The rate then consolidated trading somewhat higher on Friday finishing the week at 0.9920, showing an overall decline of -1.7% from its previous weekly close.

NZD/USD gained sharply last week as the RBNZ left rates unchanged and increased risk appetite drove the rate higher. The week began with the rate rising in the absence of any significant economic data out of either country. On Tuesday, the pair sold off sharply after New Zealand CPI increased by only +0.4% q/q, compared to +0.7% that was expected. The pair continued selling off making its weekly low of 0.7912 on Wednesday after the RBNZ left the benchmark Official Cash Rate at 2.5% as widely expected. Also, the New Zealand Trade Balance came in showing a deficit of -751M, versus an expected deficit of -421M. The rate then reversed direction rising sharply on Thursday as risk assets gained due in part to a positive U.S. GDP report and a glimmer of hope in Europe. Friday had the rate make its weekly high of 0.8240 before selling off on profit taking to close at 0.8197, a gain of +2.4% overall for the week.

The Week Ahead

AUD: This week’s Australian economic calendar is considerably busier than last week, and it features the key RBA Rate Decision due out on Tuesday. Monday starts the week off with Private Sector Credit (0.2%), while Tuesday has HIA New Home Sales (last 1.1%) tentatively scheduled, as well as HPI (-1.4%), Commodity Prices (last 26.6%), and the featured Cash Rate Decision (4.75%) and its associated RBA Rate Statement. Wednesday offers Building Approvals (-4.5%), while Thursday’s highlights include the AIG Services Index (last 50.3), Retail Sales (0.5%) and the start of the G20 Meetings. Friday concludes the week with the RBA Monetary Policy Statement and the last day of the G20 Meetings. Resistance for AUD/USD is seen at 1.0751/63 and 1.1079, with support noted at 1.0599 and 1.0320.

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• AUD/USD

CAD: This week’s Canadian economic calendar is about as active as last week, and it features the key Canadian Employment Report due out on Friday. Monday’s highlights include GDP (0.2%), and RMPI (-2.3%), while Tuesday and Wednesday are relatively quiet. The G20 Meetings commence on Thursday and run through Friday, and additional key data out on Friday includes the Employment Change (20.3K), Unemployment Rate (7.2%), Building Permits (2.7%) and Ivey PMI (56.2). Resistance for USD/CAD is seen at 0.9990, 1.0042 and 1.0211. Support shows initially at 0.9891, and below that at 0.9789 and 0.9724.

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• CAD/USD

EUR: This week’s Eurozone economic calendar is considerably quieter than last week, and it features the ECB Rate Decision due out on Thursday. Sunday begins the week with a Daylights Savings Time shift, and Monday’s highlights then include German Retail Sales (1.1%), the CPI Flash Estimate (2.9%) and the EZ Unemployment Rate (10.0%). Tuesday is a bank holiday in France and Italy, and Wednesday’s highlights include the German Unemployment Change (-10K). Thursday features the G20 Meetings that will run through Friday, as well as the ECB Minimum Bid Rate Decision (1.50%) and the associated ECB Press Conference. Friday concludes the week with German Factory Orders (0.3%). Resistance for EUR/USD is seen at 1.4246 and 1.4548, with support showing at 1.3913/36 and 1.3652.

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• EUR/USD

GBP: This week’s U.K. economic calendar is about as active as last week, and it will feature Preliminary GDP data due out on Tuesday. Sunday begins the week with a Daylights Savings Time shift, and Monday then offers Net Lending to Individuals (0.9B). Tuesday features the Nationwide HPI (0.1%), the Halifax HPI (1-4 Nov, 0.1%), Manufacturing PMI (50.0), and Preliminary GDP (0.4%). Wednesday offers Construction PMI (50.2), while Thursday’s highlights include the G20 Meetings that conclude on Friday, and Services PMI (51.9). Resistance to the topside for GBP/USD shows at 1.6151 and 1.6473, while support for the pair is expected at 1.5851/89 and 1.5687.

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• GBP/USD

JPY: This week’s Japanese economic calendar is notably quieter compared with last week, and features the BOJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes due out on Tuesday. Tuesday starts the week off with the BOJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, Average Cash Earnings (-0.3%), and a tentatively scheduled speech by BOJ Governor Shirakawa. Wednesday is quiet and Thursday is a Bank Holiday in Japan, along with the start of the G20 Meetings that conclude on Friday. Resistance for USD/JPY currently shows up at 75.94, 76.30 and 77.48, with support indicated at 75.65 and likely at the psychological 75.00 level.

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• JPY/USD

NZD: This week’s New Zealand economic calendar is about as busy as last week, and it will feature the New Zealand Employment Report due out on Thursday. Monday’s only highlight is Building Consents (last 12.5%), while Tuesday’s is the Labor Cost Index (0.9%). Wednesday is quiet, and Thursday offers the highlighted NZ Employment Change (0.6%), and Unemployment Rate (6.4%), plus the G20 Meetings commence to conclude on Friday. The chart for NZD/USD shows resistance at 0.8339/81 and 0.8571. On the downside, technical support is expected at 0.8107 and 0.7859.

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• NZD/USD

USD: This week’s U.S. economic calendar offers more highlights than last week, with the main focus being on the key U.S. Non Farm Payrolls data due out on Friday. Monday only has the Chicago PMI (59.2), while Tuesday features ISM Manufacturing PMI (52.3). Wednesday’s highlights include ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (103K), Crude Oil Inventories (4.7M), plus the Fed Funds Rate Decision (<0.25%) and the associated FOMC Rate Statement and Press Conference. Thursday will feature the start of the latest round of G20 Meetings, as well as Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (402K), Preliminary Nonfarm Productivity (2.6%), Preliminary Unit Labor Costs (-0.4%), ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (53.9), and Factory Orders (0.0%), and Friday ends the week with the last day of the G20 Meetings, the highlighted Non-Farm Payrolls (98K) data, the Unemployment Rate (9.1%) and Average Hourly Earnings (0.2%).

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EUR/USD gained fractionally last week as uncertainty over a resolution to the European debt crisis and division among European leaders continues to be an issue. The week began with the rate making its weekly high of 1.3913 before selling off sharply after German Finance Minister Schaeuble stated that there would not be a “definitive solution this weekend”, referring to the EU summit. The pair then made its weekly low of 1.3652 on Tuesday after German ZEW Economic Sentiment came out at -43.3 missing expectations of -44.8, also EZ ZEW Economic Sentiment also missed expectations coming out at -51.2 versus -45.1 expected. In U.S. numbers, PPI came out with an increase of +0.8% versus +0.2% expected. The rate continued trading in a narrow range Wednesday and Thursday as confusion in the market arose due to a report in a Dutch newspaper that the EFSF would be leveraged by a factor of five with guarantees provided on a portion of losses on peripheral Eurozone bonds. The German Finance Ministry denied the ESFS would be expanded. Economic data had the EZ Current Account narrow to -5.0B versus -7.3B expected and U.S. Core CPI which came out at +0.1 versus +0.2 expected. Also, German PPI increased by +0.3% m/m versus +0.2% and U.S. Existing Home Sales came out at 4.91M versus 4.94 expected. Friday saw the rate rally sharply after the U.S. Fed’s Tarullo called for resuming large scale purchases of mortgage backed securities. Adding to the rally was German Chancellor Merkel stating that France and Germany had come to an agreement on the main points for finding a solution to the debt crisis. EUR/USD went on to close at 1.3895, showing a gain of +0.1% from its previous weekly close.



USD/JPY hit a new all time low last week as Japan approved an additional ¥12T for reconstruction. The rate began the week trading lower after making its weekly high of 77.44 as the Dollar weakened broadly after the Empire State Manufacturing Index came out at -8.5 versus an expected -3.9, also, Japanese Revised Industrial Production rose +0.6% m/m versus an increase of +0.8% expected. The rate continued trading in a narrow range the rest of the week, consolidating on Thursday. The rate then made its weekly and new all time low of 75.80 as news that a task force was being formed to deal with the Yen’s persistent strength. The fund would be augmented to ¥10T and shifted to the Japan Bank for International Cooperation to help exporters. In addition, an additional ¥12T Yen would be set aside for the reconstruction efforts. USD/JPY went on to close at 76.13, showing an overall loss of -1.4% for the week.

GBP/USD gained ground last week as inflation numbers in the UK soared and the BOE decided on an additional 75B in quantitative easing. The week began on a soft note with the rate dropping as the UK Rightmove HPI increased by +2.8% m/m versus a previous increase of +0.7%. The rate then made its weekly low of 1.5630 on Tuesday after the UK reported CPI had risen to 5.2% y/y versus an expected increase of 4.9%. The rate then reversed on Wednesday, trading higher after the MPC Meeting Minutes showed a unanimous decision to restart the Asset Purchase Facility with £75B. The minutes stated, “the available indicators suggested that the underlying rate of growth had moderated and would be close to zero in the fourth quarter.” The rate continued higher on Thursday after UK Retail Sales showed an increase of +0.6% m/m versus an expected flat reading. Cable then soared on Friday making its weekly high of 1.5960 after the UK reported a better than expected Public Sector Net Borrowing at 11.4B versus 12.0B expected. GBP/USD went on to close the week at 1.5958, showing an overall gain of +1.5%.

AUD/USD ended the week virtually unchanged as commodities were pressured and Australia reported weaker economic data. The rate began the week making its weekly high of 1.0369 before dropping sharply as commodity prices weakened and Australian New Motor Vehicle Sales declined by -1.5% m/m versus a previous reading of +3.4%. The rate continued dropping making its weekly low of 1.0116 as the RBA’s Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes indicated it might be ready to lower rates since the inflation outlook “may now be more consistent with the two to three per cent inflation target”. The rate traded in a range the rest of the week, rising on Friday after indications that the U.S. Fed might begin purchasing mortgage backed securities in a new QE III. AUD/USD went on to close at 1.0346, a mere 5 pips higher than the previous weekly close and virtually unchanged.

USD/CAD dropped fractionally as Canadian inflation numbers showed an increase and commodities weakened. The week began with the rate making its weekly low of 1.0042 Monday after the BOC Business Outlook Survey stated that, “The business outlook survey suggests that though respondents expect growth to continue, the optimism has been curtailed, this moderation in confidence provides further reason for the Bank of Canada to maintain its highly accommodative stance.” The rat e then made its weekly high of 1.0262 on Tuesday before selling off. Wednesday saw the rate rally as the United States reported better than expected economic data. The rate then declined the rest of the week ending at 1.0085, a decline of -0.01% from its previous weekly close.

NZD/USD fell slightly last week, after having gained substantially the previous week. The market had very little new economic data for New Zealand to review, although the price of gold fell almost $100 during the week as fresh corrective selling activity emerged. The week began with the pair falling sharply off its weekly high of 0.8066 on Monday as the Greenback strengthened despite an unexpectedly low result for the Empire State Manufacturing Index and a downward revision to last month’s U.S. Industrial Production to 0.0% — its lowest level since May. The rate then moved higher off of its weekly low of 0.7859 made early on Tuesday, even though all U.S. numbers were more favourable than expected. The Kiwi then fell on Wednesday and consolidated during most of Thursday within the 0.7871 to 0.7988 range. Nevertheless, the rate broke out of its range to the upside on Friday — after NZ Visitor Arrivals showed a sharp rise of 18.1% compared with the previous month’s 4.2% result — to close the week at 0.8025, down slightly from its 0.8055 weekly open.

The Week Ahead

AUD: This week’s Australian economic calendar is somewhat less busy than last week, and it features the release of key inflation data on Monday and Wednesday. Monday starts the week off with the key PPI data (0.8%), while Tuesday’s highlights include the CB Leading Index (last -0.1%) and a speech by RBA Deputy Governor Battellino. Wednesday features the CPI (0.7%) and the Trimmed Mean CPI (0.7%). That concludes the week’s highlights. Resistance for AUD/USD is seen at 1.0370/96 and 1.0763, with support noted at 1.0116 and 0.9925.

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• AUD/USD

CAD: This week’s Canadian economic calendar is about as active as last week, and it features the key BOC Rate Decision due out on Tuesday. Monday has little of note, so Tuesday starts the week out with Core Retail Sales (0.4%), Retail Sales (0.5%), and the highlighted BOC Overnight Rate Decision (1.00%) and associated BOC Rate Statement. Wednesday then features the BOC Monetary Policy Report and its associated a BOC Press Conference, plus a later speech by BOC Governor Carney. That concludes the week’s highlights since Thursday and Friday are relatively quiet. Resistance for USD/CAD is seen at 1.0262, 1.0384 and 1.0657. Support shows initially in the 1.008/42 region, ahead of the key psychological 1.0000 parity level, and below that at 0.9911.

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• CAD/USD

EUR: This week’s Eurozone economic calendar is much busier than last week, and it features the EU Economic Summit in Brussels on Sunday that may result in decisions affecting the Greek debt crisis. Monday’s highlights include French Flash Manufacturing PMI (48.1), French Flash Services PMI (50.6), German Flash Manufacturing PMI (50.0), German Flash Services PMI (49.8), EZ Flash Manufacturing PMI (48.1), EZ Flash Services PMI (48.6), EZ Industrial New Orders (0.1%) and a speech by ECB President Trichet. Tuesday then features GfK German Consumer Climate (5.1) and Belgium NBB Business Climate (-9), while Wednesday has another EU Economic Summit meeting tentatively scheduled, with more announcements about the Greek debt crisis possible. Thursday’s key data includes German Preliminary CPI (0.1%) and EZ M3 Money Supply (2.8%), and Friday ends the week with French Consumer Spending (0.1%). Resistance for EUR/USD is seen around 1.3932/36 and 1.4548, with support showing at 1.3652 and 1.3145.

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• EUR/USD

GBP: This week’s U.K. economic calendar is about as active as last week, and it will feature testimony on quantitative easing by BOE Governor King before the UK Parliament's Treasury Committee on Tuesday. To begin the week, Monday offers a speech by MPC Member Tucker, while Tuesday features the UK Current Account (-9.9B), BBA Mortgage Approvals (36.3K), the highlighted testimony by BOE Governor King and a speech by MPC Member Bean. Wednesday’s highlights include CBI Industrial Order Expectations (-7), and a speech by MPC Member Posen. Thursday’s offerings include CBI Realized Sales (-15), and Friday ends the week with GfK Consumer Confidence (-30). Resistance to the topside for GBP/USD shows at 1.6109 and 1.6473, while support for the pair is expected at 1.5851 and 1.5687.

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• GBP/USD

JPY: This week’s Japanese economic calendar is notably busier compared with last week, and features the tentatively scheduled BOJ Rate Decision on Thursday. Monday starts the week off with the Trade Balance (-0.11T), although Tuesday and Wednesday have little of note due out. Thursday offers Retail Sales (0.0%), the tentatively scheduled BOJ Monetary Policy Statement, Overnight Call Rate Decision (<0.10%), and BOJ Press Conference, plus the BOJ Outlook Report. Friday ends the week with Household Spending (-3.4%), Tokyo Core CPI (-0.4%), and Preliminary Industrial Production (-2.0%). Resistance for USD/JPY currently shows up at 76.30 and 77.48/8, with support indicated at 75.94 and 75.80.

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• JPY/USD

NZD: This week’s New Zealand economic calendar is considerably busier than last week, and it will feature the RBNZ Rate Decision on Thursday. Monday is a Bank Holiday, so Tuesday starts the week’s highlights off with the CPI (0.8%). Wednesday features NBNZ Business Confidence (last 34.4), while Thursday offers the RBNZ’s Official Cash Rate Decision (2.50%) and associated RBNZ Rate Statement, plus the Trade Balance (-421M). That will conclude the week since Friday has nothing of note due out. The chart for NZD/USD shows resistance at 0.8066, 0.8117 and 0.8339. On the downside, technical support is expected at 0.7859 and 0.7635.

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• NZD/USD

USD: This week’s U.S. economic calendar offers fewer highlights than last week, with the main focus being on the key U.S. Advance GDP data due out on Thursday. Monday has little of note, while Tuesday features the S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI (-3.6%) and CB Consumer Confidence (46.2). Wednesday offers Core Durable Goods Orders (0.5%), Durable Goods Orders (-0.6%) and New Home Sales (302K) and Crude Oil Inventories (last -4.7M). Thursday features the highlighted Advance GDP data (2.4%), plus Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (404K), Advance GDP Price Index (2.4%) and Pending Home Sales (0.2%). Friday concludes the week’s highlights with the Core PCE Price Index (0.1%), the Employment Cost Index (0.6%), Personal Spending (0.6%) and the Revised University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey (58.2).

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EUR/USD gained significantly last week as risk appetite increased in the market and the possibility of a solution to the European financial crisis pushed the rate higher. The week began with the rate rising sharply after making its weekly low of 1.3377 as the EU voted to increase the EFSF, also, the ECBs Trichet stated in a speech to the European Systemic Risk Board, “The high interconnectedness in the EU financial system has led to a rapidly rising risk of significant contagion.” The rate continued gaining mid week as positive news from the EU, IMF and ECB inspection team to Greece stated the country had made “important progress” and was likely to receive the next instalment of €8B of the bailout. Further fuelling the rally in the Euro were the FOMC Meeting Minutes in which policymakers lowered their forecasts for the U.S. economy for the rest of 2011 and 2012, and the European Commission’s plan for bank recapitalization. Economic data included EZ Industrial Production out on Wednesday showing an increase of +1.2% m/m, considerably better than the drop of -0.8% that was expected. Also, the U.S. Trade Balance came out on Thursday showing a deficit of -45.6B, just slightly below the -46.0B expected. The rate continued its rally late in the week as the G20 began meetings on Friday in Paris, with expectations that finance ministers would increase the IMF’s bailout fund to further aid in the European debt crisis. In economic numbers on Friday, EZ CPI came out at 3.0% y/y as widely expected while EZ Core CPI increased by +1.6% y/y, edging the consensus of a +1.5% increase. Also out were U.S. Retail Sales increasing by 1.1% m/m, versus +0.5% expected and Core Retail Sales gained by +0.6% m/m, versus +0.2% expected. EUR/USD went on to make its weekly high of 1.3893 before trading down to close at 1.3874, showing an overall gain of +3.5% from its previous weekly close. The G20 announced Sunday it would consider naming up to 50 banks which qualify as “systemically important” to the global economy and publish the list in time for next months G20 meeting in Cannes.

USD/JPY gained ground last week as asset flows favoured the U.S. Dollar over the Yen and despite better than expected economic numbers out of Japan. The rate began the week trading in a limited range as the Japanese Current Account came out showing a surplus of +0.65T, considerably higher than the +0.51T expected. Also out early in the week was the BOJ’s Monthly Report, which stated that “Japan''s economic activity has continued picking up.” And that “Production and exports have continued to increase,” despite the devastating earthquake that hit the island in March. Wednesday saw the rate make both its weekly high of 77.48 and its weekly low of 76.30 as Japan reported Core Machinery Orders had increased by +11.0% m/m, significantly higher than the +4.7% that was expected, and the FOMC Meeting Minutes, which came out with a downward revision on the U.S. economy’s forecast. On Thursday, the BOJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes stated that, “Further monetary easing might become necessary depending on future developments given that there remained heightened downside risks to economic activity, as seen in, for example, uncertainty about the possible consequences of the sovereign debt problems in Europe,” in economic numbers, Japanese Tertiary Industry Activity dropped by -0.2% m/m, versus a decline of -0.3% expected. USD/JPY rose on Friday after positive U.S. Retail Sales data, bringing the rate to close at 77.20, a gain of +0.5% for the week.

GBP/USD gained ground last week as risk appetite favoured Sterling and both countries reported mixed economic data. The week began with Cable trading higher after making its weekly low of 1.5525 on Monday as the rate gained on risk appetite and in the absence of economic data. The rate then dropped sharply on Tuesday after UK Manufacturing Production showed a decline of -0.3% m/m versus an expected drop of -0.1%, also out were the UK BRC Retail Sales Monitor, which showed an increase of +0.3% y/y, versus a previous reading of -0.6% and the RICS House Price Balance which came out at -23% as widely anticipated. The rate then recovered Wednesday trading sharply higher as the UK Claimant Count Change came out at 17.5, significantly lower than the 24.7K that was expected, in addition, the UK Average Earnings Index came out showing an increase of +2.8% 3m/y, edging the consensus of a +2.7% rise, and the UK Unemployment Rate, which rose to 8.1% from 7.9%. Cable continued its ascent on Thursday after the UK Trade Balance came out showing a deficit of -7.8B, narrower than the deficit of -8.8B that was expected. The rate then made its weekly high of 1.5851 on Friday selling off somewhat after a positive U.S. Retail Sales number bringing Cable to close at 1.5807, an increase of +1.6% from its previous weekly close.

AUD/USD traded sharply higher last week as risk assets gained and Australia reported strong employment numbers. The rate began the week trading higher after making its weekly low of 0.9748 after Australian ANZ Job Advertisements declined by -2.1% m/m, versus a previous decline of -0.7%. The pair consolidated Tuesday, trading lower after the Australian NAB Business Confidence survey came out with reading of -2, versus previous reading of -9. AUD/USD then rallied Wednesday after Australian Home Loans increased by +1.2% m/m, edging the consensus of a +1.1% rise. The rate continued higher Thursday after Australian Employment Change showed an increase of +20.4K new jobs, more than twice the expected +10.1K, while Australian Unemployment dropped a notch to 5.2% from 5.3%. AUD/USD went on to make close at its weekly high of 1.0341, showing a whopping gain of +5.4% for the week.

USD/CAD extended the previous week’s losses as risk assets rallied and commodity prices rose. The week began with the rate trading lower off of its weekly high of 1.0389 in the absence of any significant data out on Monday. The rate traded somewhat higher Tuesday despite Canadian Housing Starts came out at 206K, versus an expected 187K. The pair then continued trading sharply lower on Wednesday as the FOMC revised U.S. economic forecasts lower and Canadian NHPI increased by +0.1% m/m as widely expected. The rate consolidated somewhat higher on Thursday after the Canadian Trade Balance showed a deficit of -0.6B, versus -0.9B expected. Friday saw the rate make its weekly low of 1.0101 after Canadian Manufacturing Sales showed an increase of +1.4% m/m, significantly higher than the increase of +0.5% that was expected. USD/CAD went on to close at 1.0102, showing an overall loss of -2.8% from its previous weekly close.

NZD/USD extended the previous week’s gains rising sharply on increased risk appetite and in sympathy with the other commodity dollars. The week began with the pair rising sharply in the absence of any significant economic data out of either country. The rate then declined on Tuesday after the New Zealand REINZ HPI rose by +1.7% m/m, versus previous reading of +0.5%. The rate then rose sharply on Wednesday after the FOMC released downwardly revised forecasts for the U.S. economy. Thursday saw the rate consolidate subsequently rising on Friday after making its weekly high of 0.8050, to close at 0.8049, an impressive gain of +4.3% for the week.

The Week Ahead

AUD: This week’s Australian economic calendar is somewhat less busy than last week, and it features Tuesday’s RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes. Monday starts the week with New Motor Vehicle Sales (last 3.3%), while Tuesday offers the highlighted Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes. Wednesday features a speech by RBA Assist Governor Debelle, in addition to the MI Leading Index (last 0.5%). Thursday’s highlights include a speech by RBA Assistant Governor Edey, plus the NAB Quarterly Business Confidence survey (6). Friday will end the week with Import Prices (0.6%). Resistance for AUD/USD is seen at 1.0763 and 1.1079, with support noted at 0.9925 and 0.9620.

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• AUD/USD

CAD: This week’s Canadian economic calendar is about as active as last week, and it features the key Canadian CPI data due out on Friday. Monday starts the week out and features the release of Foreign Securities Purchases (9.23B) and the BOC Business Outlook Survey. Tuesday is quiet, and Wednesday’s highlights include the Leading Index (0.2%). Thursday offers Wholesale Sales (0.5%), and Friday concludes the week with the highlighted Core CPI (0.2%) and CPI (0.1%) data. Resistance for USD/CAD is seen at 1.0384 and 1.0657, with support initially showing at 1.0025 ahead of the key psychological 1.0000 parity level and below that at 0.9911

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• CAD/USD

EUR: This week’s Eurozone economic calendar is a bit busier than last week, and features the German ZEW Economic Sentiment (-44.7) and EZ ZEW Economic Sentiment (-45.1) surveys out on Tuesday, which starts the week since Monday is quiet. Wednesday’s highlights include the EZ Current Account (-7.3B), while Thursday features German PPI (0.3%) and Friday ends the week with a speech by ECB President Trichet and the German Ifo Business Climate survey (106.3). Resistance for EUR/USD is seen around 1.4054 and 1.4548, with support showing at 1.3494 and 1.3361.

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• EUR/USD

GBP: This week’s U.K. economic calendar is about as active as last week, and it will feature the key MPC Meeting Minutes due out on Wednesday. To begin the week, Monday offers the Rightmove HPI (last 0.7%), while Tuesday features CPI (4.9%) and RPI (5.4%) data. Wednesday then has highlighted MPC Meeting Minutes (0-0-9) due out, while Thursday features Retail Sales (0.1%). Friday ends the week with Nationwide Consumer Confidence (50) and Public Sector Net Borrowing (11.9B). Resistance to the topside for GBP/USD shows at 1.6139 and 1.6473, whilst support for the pair is expected at 1.5541, 1.5326/55 and 1.5270.

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• GBP/USD

JPY: This week’s Japanese economic calendar is notably quiet compared with last week, and features a tentatively scheduled speech by BOJ Governor Shirakawa on Friday. Monday starts the week with Revised Industrial Production (0.8%), and Tuesday is quiet. Wednesday has All Industries Activity (-0.2%) scheduled, and Thursday has nothing of note due out. Friday ends the week with the tentatively scheduled speech by BOJ Governor Shirakawa. Resistance for USD/JPY currently shows up at 77.85 and 78.46, whilst support is expected at 76.56 and 75.94/76.10.

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• JPY/USD

NZD: This week’s New Zealand economic calendar is again very quiet, and it only offers Visitor Arrivals (last 8.0%) and Credit Card Spending (4.7%), which are both due out on Friday. The chart for NZD/USD shows resistance at 0.8339 and 0.8502. On the downside, technical support is expected at 0.7962 and 0.7635, followed by 0.7469.

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• NZD/USD

USD: This week’s U.S. economic calendar is more active than last week, with the main focus being on the key U.S. inflation data due out on Tuesday and Wednesday. Monday’s highlights include the Empire State Manufacturing Index (-3.9), the Capacity Utilization Rate (77.5%) and Industrial Production (0.2%), while Tuesday features speeches by FOMC Member Evans and Fed Chair Bernanke, as well as PPI (0.2%), Core PPI (0.1%), TIC Long-Term Purchases (27.8B), and the tentatively scheduled Treasury Currency Report. Wednesday is also busy, featuring Building Permits (0.61M), Core CPI (0.2%), CPI (0.3%), Housing Starts (0.59M), Crude Oil Inventories and the release of the Fed’s Beige Book. Thursday’s highlights will be Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (405K), Existing Home Sales (4.94M) and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (-9.0), while Friday concludes the week with two speeches by FOMC Member Kocherlakota and a speech by FOMC Member Yellen.

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EUR/USD lost fractionally last week as the EU considered recapitalization of EZ banks and the ECB left rates unchanged. Also, both Moody’s and Fitch’s downgraded sovereign ratings for Italy and Spain late in the week. The week began with the rate gapping lower on Monday after Germany declined to increase their contribution to the EFSF to more than the €211B already approved by the German Parliament. Also, Greece approved additional austerity measures to obtain the next €6.6B in emergency funds from the Troika. In economic numbers, U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI came out at 51.6 beating the consensus of a 50.5 print. On Tuesday, the pair made its weekly low of 1.3166 as fears of contagion were stoked by Moody’s warning of French-Belgian financial giant Dexia’s exposure to Greek debt. The rate then recovered, rising sharply after EU Commissioner for Economic Affairs Ollie Rehn stated that “capital positions of European banks must be reinforced to provide additional safety margins and thus reduce uncertainty”. The rate consolidated on Wednesday as the IMF’s Antonio Borges stated that €100B to €200B would be needed to recapitalize EZ banks. Wednesday’s economic data included EZ Retail Sales, which declined by -0.3% m/m, versus a decline of -0.2% that was expected, and U.S. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, which beat expectations showing 91K new jobs versus 76K expected. Thursday saw the rate rally after the ECB left its benchmark Minimum Bid Rate unchanged at 1.50% as widely expected. The central bank unveiled two long-term refinancing operations or LTROs, one with a 12-month maturity for October, and one for 13-months in December. On Friday, the rate made its weekly high of 1.3523 after U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls increased by +103K, almost double the increase of +55K that was expected. The better than expected number increased risk appetite, bringing the rate to close at 1.3385, a loss of a mere 9 pips from its previously weekly close and virtually unchanged on the week. On Sunday, Reuters reported that a rescue package for Dexia was arrived at by France, Belgium and Luxembourg, with Belgium set to nationalize Dexia’s retail banking business.



USD/JPY lost ground last week as the BOJ left rates unchanged and Japan reported mixed economic data. The week began with the rate making both its weekly high of 77.25 and weekly low of 76.50 in Monday’s session. Economic data had the Japanese Tankan Manufacturing Index come out at 2, as was widely expected, while the Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index came out at a disappointing 1, versus a consensus of 3. Also out was Japanese Average Cash Earnings, which declined by -0.6% y/y, significantly lower than the increase of +0.7% that was expected. The rate traded in a narrow range the rest of the week with the Yen gaining some ground on Thursday after the BOJ rate decision. The central bank left its benchmark Overnight Call Rate unchanged at <0.10% and its securities purchase program at ¥50Tas widely anticipated. In its accompanying statement, the BOJ noted that economic activity such as production and exports had continued to increase however at a moderated pace and that activity would continue at a slow pace “for the time being”. USD/JPY went on to close at 76.84, declining by -0.4% for the week.

GBP/USD lost moderately last week as the BOE left rates unchanged, but unexpectedly increased its Asset Purchase Program. The rate began the week gapping lower as risk aversion affected Cable and despite UK ISM Manufacturing PMI coming out at 51.1, significantly higher than the consensus of 48.9. The rate continued its decline on Tuesday after UK Construction PMI came out at 50.1, versus 51.7 expected, the rate then reversed and traded higher. Wednesday saw Cable weaken after UK Final Quarterly GDP increased by only +0.1%, versus an expected increase of +0.2%, nevertheless, UK Services PMI came out at 52.6, significantly better than the 50.6 expected. On Thursday, the rate made its weekly low of 1.5270 after the BOE left its benchmark Official Bank Rate unchanged at 0.50%, while increasing the Asset Purchase Facility by £75B to £275B. Also weighing on the rate was the UK Halifax HPI, which declined by -0.5% m/m versus an expected increase of +0.3%. The rate then made its weekly high on Friday after a better than expected U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls number and UK PPI Input increasing by +1.7% m/m, versus an expected increase of +1.3%. GBP/USD went on to close at 1.5557, showing an overall loss of -0.2% from its previous weekly close.

AUD/USD reversed its slide gaining ground last week as the RBA left rates unchanged and risk assets reacted to higher commodity prices. The week began with the rate gapping lower on Monday as risk aversion hit the commodity currencies hard. Economic data had the Australian AIG Manufacturing Index print at 42.3, versus a previous print of 43.3 and the Australian MI Inflation Gauge increase by +0.1% m/m, versus a previous reading of -0.1%. On Tuesday, the rate rallied after making its weekly low of 0.9385 as the RBA left its benchmark Cash Rate unchanged at 4.75%. Also out were the Australian Trade Balance, showing a surplus of 3.10B, significantly higher than the 2.14B market consensus and Australian Building Approvals, increasing by +11.4% m/m, notably higher than the +1.1% that was expected. The rate continued rallying on Wednesday and Thursday as Australian Retail Sales increased by +0.6% m/m, versus an expected increase of only +0.3%. Friday saw the rate make its weekly high of 0.9877 after the United States reported a favourable Non-Farm Payrolls number. The rate then sold off on profit taking, bringing AUD/USD to close at 0.9776, showing an overall gain of +1.0% for the week.

USD/CAD lost ground last week as risk appetite increased in the market and Canada reported mostly better than expected economic data. The rate began the week trading higher as the Greenback gained across the board against other major currencies. On Tuesday, the pair made its weekly high of 1.0656 before reversing direction and trading sharply lower. The rate continued losing ground on Wednesday despite a favourable U.S. ADP Non-Farm Payrolls number. Thursday saw the rate continue to head south after Canadian Ivey PMI came out at 63.4, significantly higher than the consensus of a 58.2 print. Also out were Canadian Building Permits, which declined by a whopping -10.4%, versus an expected increase of +0.6%. The rate then made its weekly low on Friday after Canadian Employment Change showed +60.9K new jobs, considerably more than the increase of +15.2K that was expected, and the Canadian Unemployment Rate dropping to 7.1% versus the previous and expected 7.3%. USD/CAD went on to close at 1.0382, showing an overall loss of -0.9% from its previous weekly close.

NZD/USD gained ground last week as risk assets gained and commodity prices increased. The rate began the week trading lower as risk aversion weighed on the Kiwi. On Tuesday, the rate made its weekly low of 0.7427 before reversing direction and trading higher after the New Zealand NZIER Business Confidence Survey came out at 25, versus a previous reading of 27. The rate continued climbing the rest of the week, making its weekly high of 0.7795 on Friday after the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls number before selling off sharply, bringing NZD/USD to close at 0.7700, a gain of +1.0% for the week.

The Week Ahead

AUD: This week’s Australian economic calendar is somewhat busier than last week, and it features Thursday’s Australian Employment Report. Monday starts the week with ANZ Job Advertisements (last -0.6%), while Tuesday features the NAB Business Confidence survey (last -8). Wednesday’s highlights include Westpac Consumer Sentiment (last 8.1%), Home Loans (1.1%), and a speech by RBA Assistant Governor Debelle. Thursday features MI Inflation Expectations (last 2.8%), and the key Employment Change (10.1K) and Unemployment Rate (5.3%) data. Friday features the G20 meetings that will run through Saturday. Resistance for AUD/USD is seen at 0.9878 and 0.9985, with support noted at 0.9622 and 0.9387.

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• AUD/USD

CAD: This week’s Canadian economic calendar is a bit more active than last week, and it features the key Canadian Trade Balance data due out on Thursday. Monday is a Bank Holiday, so the weekly highlights start on Tuesday with Housing Starts (187K). Wednesday then offers the NHPI (0.1%), while Thursday features the Trade Balance (-0.9B). Friday offers Manufacturing Sales (0.5%), as well as the G20 Meetings that conclude on Saturday. Resistance for USD/CAD is seen at 1.0482, followed by 1.0657, with support initially showing at 1.0234 and then at 1.0142 ahead of the key psychological 1.0000 parity level

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• CAD/USD

EUR: This week’s Eurozone economic calendar is a bit busier than last week, and features a speech by ECB President Trichet on Tuesday. Monday starts the week featuring French Industrial Production (-0.7%) and Sentix Investor Confidence (-19.2). Tuesday offers the highlighted speech by ECB President Trichet, while Wednesday offers EZ Industrial Production (-0.8%) and another speech by Trichet. Thursday features the release of the ECB Monthly Bulletin, while Friday offers EZ CPI (3.0%) and Core CPI (1.5%), as well as the G20 Meetings that will run through Saturday. Resistance for EUR/USD is seen around 1.3524, followed by 1.3690, and with support showing at 1.3241 and 1.3146

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• EUR/USD

GBP: This week’s U.K. economic calendar is about as active as last week, and it will feature the key UK Employment Report due out on Wednesday. To begin the week, Monday is quiet, but Tuesday offers the BRC Retail Sales Monitor (last -0.6%), the RICS House Price Balance (-23%), Manufacturing Production (-0.1%), and the NIESR GDP Estimate (last 0.2%). Wednesday then features the highlighted Claimant Count Change (24.4K) and the Average Earnings Index (2.7%) as part of the UK Employment Report. Thursday features the UK Trade Balance (-8.8B), and the Nationwide Consumer Confidence survey (last 48) can come out between the 13th and the 19th. The week concludes with the G20 meetings on Friday and Saturday. Resistance to the topside for GBP/USD shows at 1.5645 and 1.5715, whilst support for the pair is expected at 1.5326/55 and 1.5272.

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• GBP/USD

JPY: This week’s Japanese economic calendar is about as active as last week, and features the BOJ Monthly Report due out on Tuesday. Monday will be a Bank Holiday, so Tuesday will start the week with the BOJ Monthly Report. Wednesday then features Core Machinery Orders (4.5%), while Thursday’s highlights include the BOJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes and Tertiary Industry Activity (-0.3%). The G20 Meetings then begin on Friday and conclude the week on Saturday. Resistance for USD/JPY currently shows up at 76.91/77.85 and 78.45, whilst support is expected at 76.51 and 75.94/76.10.

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• JPY/USD

NZD: This week’s New Zealand economic calendar is about as quiet as last week, and it will feature the important REINZ HPI data (last 0.5%) due out on Tuesday. The chart for NZD/USD shows resistance at 0.7797 and 0.7958. On the downside, technical support is expected at 0.7637, followed by 0.7469.

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• NZD/USD

USD: This week’s U.S. economic calendar is again quite active, with the main focus being on the key U.S. Trade Balance data due out on Thursday. Monday’s is a U.S. Bank Holiday, and Tuesday is also quiet to begin the week. The FOMC Meeting Minutes are Wednesday’s highlight, while Thursday will feature Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (407K) and the Federal Budget Balance (-65.0B). An especially active Friday includes the first day of the G20 Meetings, Core Retail Sales (0.2%), Retail Sales (0.5%), Import Prices (-0.3%), the Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey (60.2), Business Inventories (0.4%), and the tentatively scheduled Treasury Currency Report. The second day of the G20 Meetings then concludes the week on Saturday.

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EUR/USD extended the previous week’s losses as the United States reported improved economic numbers and the EZ considered extending the European Financial Stability Fund. The rate began the week making its weekly low of 1.3362 as European finance officials considered “leveraging up” the 440B EFSF by a factor of 8 to purchase sovereign debts of troubled Euro economies. The rate then rallied after the German Ifo Business Climate Survey came out with a reading of 107.5, versus 107.0 expected, while U.S. New Home Sales came out at 295K as anticipated. The rate continued climbing early in the week as U.S. CB Consumer Confidence printed at 45.4, versus an expected reading of 46.2. The rate made its weekly high of 1.3689 on Wednesday after news that the inspection team from the IMF, EC and ECB also known as the Troika were ready to review Greece’s compliance to terms in order to release the next 8B EUR tranche of bailout funds. In economic numbers, U.S. Core Durable Goods declined by -0.1% m/m versus an expected increase of +0.1% and German Preliminary CPI increased by +0.1% m/m versus an expected decline of -0.1%. The pair began selling off late in the week as the U.S. reported Final GDP increased by +1.3% q/q, versus +1.2% expected and U.S. Pending Home Sales dropping by only -1.2% m/m versus -1.7 expected. On Friday, the rate dropped sharply despite Germany’s approval to extend the EFSF and in part due to German Retail Sales dropping -2.9% m/m, versus a consensus of a -0.4% decline. EUR/USD went on to close at 1.3394, an overall loss of -1.0% from its previous weekly close.



USD/JPY gained last week as improved economic numbers in the U.S. and weaker economic data out of Japan supported the rate. The pair began the week trading higher off of its weekly low of 76.21 as asset flows from risk assets favoured the Greenback over the Yen. The rate continued trading higher late in the week after Japan reported Retail Sales had declined by -2.6% y/y, significantly worse than the decline of -0.6% that was expected. The pair continued trading higher making its weekly high of 77.19 on Friday after Japanese Household Spending showed a decline of -4.1% y/y, versus a consensus of a -2.7% decline, and Tokyo Core CPI, which declined by -0.1% y/y as widely expected. USD/JPY closed the week at 77.12, a gain of +0.7%.

GBP/USD gained ground last week as the UK reported better than expected economic numbers. Cable began the week on a strong note, trading off of its weekly low of 1.5430 as Sterling extended Friday’s gains. The pair continued higher despite UK CBI Realized Sales printing at -15, versus -14 that was expected. Cable then traded correctly lower on Wednesday despite a lower than expected U.S. Durable Goods Orders number. The rate rose on Thursday making its weekly high of 1.5714 as UK Nationwide CPI increased by +0.1% m/m as widely expected. Also, UK Net Lending to Individuals increased by +1.0B m/m, versus an expected increase of +0.8B. The rate then dropped on Friday despite UK GfK Consumer Confidence coming out at -30, just slightly better than the -33 that was expected. GBP/USD went on to close at 1.5588, showing an overall gain of +0.6% for the week.

AUD/USD continued losing ground last week as the commodity currencies and risk assets in general sold off. The rate began the week making its weekly low of 0.9620 before trading sharply higher, in the absence of any significant economic data out of Australia. The rate continued higher, making its weekly high of 0.9983 on Tuesday. On Wednesday, the pair reversed direction, trading lower despite Australian New Home Sales increasing by +1.1% m/m, versus a previous decline of -8.0%. The rate consolidated on Thursday only to resume its decline on Friday as Australian Private Sector Credit increased by +0.2% m/m as was widely expected. AUD/USD went on to close the week at 0.9674, a decline of -0.9%.

USD/CAD extended the previous week’s gains as risk aversion weighed heavily on all the commodity currencies. The rate began the week on a soft note as traders took profits from the previous week’s run up in the Greenback. The rate then reversed direction and began trading sharply higher on Wednesday despite a weaker U.S. Durable Goods Orders number. The rate continued trading sharply higher on Thursday as the United States reported a better than expected Final GDP number. On Friday, the rate continued higher after Canada reported its GDP had increased by +0.3% m/m as was widely expected. USD/CAD went on to close the week at 1.0478, showing an overall gain of +1.8% from its previous weekly close.

NZD/USD continued weakening last week as both Fitch’s and S&P downgraded New Zealand’s credit rating. The week began on a positive note despite the New Zealand Trade Balance showing a deficit of -641M, more than twice the -315M that was expected. The rate continued higher on Tuesday making its weekly high of 0.7955 before selling off sharply. The pair continued trading lower on Thursday as New Zealand Building Consents showed an increase of +12.5% m/m, versus a previous increase of 14.3% revised up from +13.0%. On Friday, the rate continued dropping after Fitch’s announced the downgrade of New Zealand’s credit rating from AA+ to AA citing NZ’s high level of external debt. S&P also downgraded NZ’s credit rating by one notch. Also on Friday, the NBNZ Business Confidence Survey came out at 30.3 versus a previous reading of 34.4. NZD/USD went on to close at 0.7620 showing an overall loss of -1.6% from its previous weekly close.

The Week Ahead

AUD: This week’s Australian economic calendar is considerably busier than last week, and it features Tuesday’s RBA Rate Decision. Tuesday’s highlights include Building Approvals (1.1%), the Trade Balance (2.14B), the Cash Rate (4.75%), the RBA Rate Statement, and Commodity Prices (last 25.2%). Wednesday then concludes the weekly highlights with the AIG Services Index (last 52.1) and Retail Sales (0.3%). Resistance for AUD/USD is seen at 0.9704 and 0.9925, with support noted at 0.9620 and 0.9537.

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• AUD/USD

CAD: This week’s Canadian economic calendar is a bit more active than last week, and it features key Canadian Employment Report due out on Friday. The weekly highlights start on Thursday with Building Permits (0.6%) and Ivey PMI (58.2), while Friday features the Canadian Employment Change (19.6K), and Unemployment Rate (7.3%). Resistance for USD/CAD is seen at 1.0669, followed by 1.0853, with support initially showing at 1.0384 and then at 1.0142 ahead of the psychological 1.0000 parity level.

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• CAD/USD

EUR: This week’s Eurozone economic calendar is somewhat quieter than last week, and features the ECB Rate Decision due out on Thursday. Tuesday’s highlights include the all-day ECOFIN meetings, plus a speech by ECB President Trichet, while Wednesday features EZ Retail Sales data (-0.2%). Thursday’s highlights include German Factory Orders (0.1%), as well as the closely watched ECB Rate Decision that includes the Minimum Bid Rate (1.50%) and the ECB Press Conference. Friday concludes the week with German Industrial Production (-0.9%). Resistance for EUR/USD is seen around 1.3494, followed by 1.3689, and with support showing at 1.3362/84 and then at 1.3244

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• EUR/USD

GBP: This week’s U.K. economic calendar is busier than last week, and it will feature the important BOE Rate Decision due out on Thursday. To begin the week, Manufacturing PMI (48.9) is Monday’s highlight, while Tuesday’s includes the Halifax HPI (Oct 4-7, -1.2%), Construction PMI (51.7) and a speech by MPC Member Miles. Wednesday will feature the UK Current Account (-10.4B), Services PMI (50.7), Final GDP (0.2%), and Preliminary Business Investment (last -3.2%), while Thursday’s highlighted rate decision includes the Asset Purchase Facility (200B), Official Bank Rate ( 0.50%), and tentatively scheduled MPC Rate Statement. Friday then finishes the week off with PPI Input (1.4%). Resistance to the topside for GBP/USD shows at 1.5632 and 1.5704/45, whilst support for the pair is expected at 1.5531 and 1.5326/55.

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• GBP/USD

JPY: This week’s Japanese economic calendar is busier than last week, and features the BOJ Rate Decision tentative scheduled for Friday. Before that, Monday’s highlight will be the Tankan Manufacturing Index (2) and the Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index (3), while Tuesday features Average Cash Earnings (0.7%). Friday then ends the week featuring the tentatively scheduled BOJ Monetary Policy Statement, Overnight Call Rate Decision (<0.10%), and the BOJ Press Conference. Resistance for USD/JPY currently shows up at 77.69/85 and 78.45, whilst support is expected at 76.40 and 75.94.

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• JPY/USD

NZD: This week’s New Zealand economic calendar is a bit quieter than last week, and it will feature the key NZIER Business Confidence survey (last 27) due out on Tuesday. The chart for NZD/USD shows resistance at 0.7754 and 0.7955/62. On the downside, technical support is expected at 0.7575, followed by 0.7115.

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• NZD/USD

USD: This week’s U.S. economic calendar is quite active, with the main focus being on the key Non-Farm Payrolls data due out on Friday. To start the week, ISM Manufacturing PMI (50.5) is Monday’s highlight, while a speech by FOMC Member Raskin, testimony by Fed Chair Ben Bernanke and Factory Orders (0.2%) are Tuesday’s. Wednesday then features the closely watched ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (76K), as well as ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (53.1), and Crude Oil Inventories (last 1.9M). Thursday’s highlight will be Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (411K), while Friday concludes the week with the all-important Non-Farm Employment Change (51K), plus the Unemployment Rate (9.1%) and Average Hourly Earnings (0.2%).

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EUR/USD continued heading south last week as concerns over the worsening European financial crisis, combined with the U.S. Fed’s new “Operation Twist” or QEIII package, fuelling the Greenback’s rally. The rate gapped lower again initially as risk appetite favoured the Greenback amid continued concerns over the imminent default of Greece. Stock markets were hit especially hard early in the week in both the United States and Europe, which also weighed on EUR/USD. Economic releases had German ZEW Economic Sentiment come in slightly better than expected at -43.3, versus a consensus of -44.3, while U.S. Building Permits increased by +0.62M, as was widely expected. On Wednesday, the rate made its weekly high of 1.3796 before selling off sharply after the U.S. FOMC left the U.S. Fed Funds rate unchanged at <0.25%, as widely expected. In their statement after the rate announcement, the FOMC outlined their new $400B “Operation Twist”. The new stimulus program will have the Fed sell $400B of Treasury securities that mature in 3 years or less, while simultaneously buying similar Treasuries with maturities of 6 to 30 years. Adding to the Greenback’s strength were Existing Home Sales, which increased by +5.03M versus the +4.76M number expected. The pair continued declining late in the week despite the G20/IMF Meetings responding to a slew of downgrades to European banks by stating that they would, “take all necessary actions to preserve the stability of banking systems and financial markets as required.” This drove the rate to its weekly low of 1.3384 on Thursday. EUR/USD went on to close at 1.3522 on Friday, and showed an overall loss of -2.0% from its previous weekly close.



USD/JPY lost marginally as asset flows favoured the Greenback and after trading in a narrow range throughout the week. The rate began the week by trading off of its weekly high of 76.97 seen on Monday as risk aversion initially favoured the Yen. The rate continued trading lower mid-week, despite a deficit of -0.29T reported for the Japanese Trade Balance that was wider than the -0.1T expected. On Wednesday, the rate made its weekly low of 76.11 after the United States reported leaving the Fed Funds rate unchanged and announced the “Operation Twist” stimulus package. The rate finished the week by trading higher as traders squared positions, bringing USD/JPY to close at 76.60, showing an overall loss of -0.3% for the week.

GBP/USD extended last week’s losses as the BOE’s MPC Meeting Minutes showed a unanimous vote for leaving rates unchanged and as the possibility of a new round of stimulus measures increased. Cable began the week by the rate coming off of its weekly high of 1.5754 as risk assets were sold heavily in favour of the Greenback. The rate then rallied on Tuesday as the United States reported mixed housing numbers. Cable then weakened considerably on Wednesday after the BOE released the MPC Meeting Minutes for its September Rate Decision. The minutes showed a unanimous vote to leave the benchmark Official Bank Rate unchanged at 0.50% and the Asset Purchase Facility unchanged at £200B. The minutes stated that, “for some members, a continuation of the conditions seen over the past month would probably be sufficient to justify an expansion of the asset purchase program at a subsequent meeting.” GBP/USD continued sliding, making its weekly low of 1.5326 on Thursday as UK CBI Industrial Order Expectations came out at -9, a result that was considerably lower than the -5 expected. The rate then rallied on Friday after UK BBA Mortgage Approvals came out at 35.2K, versus an expected 33.2K print. GBP/USD went on to close the week at 1.5487, showing an overall loss of -2.00%.

AUD/USD lost considerable ground last week, closing below parity for the first time since March as risk aversion and concerns over Chinese growth prospects took the Aussie sharply lower. The week began with the rate declining notably after making its weekly high of 1.0313 as risk assets sold off in favour of the Greenback. On Tuesday, the rate firmed after the RBA released its Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes for the September 6th Rate Decision. In the minutes, the central bank stated that, “the international outlook had become significantly more clouded since the previous board meeting.” Nevertheless, the rate then fell sharply on Thursday as risk aversion continued weighing on all of the commodity dollars. The rate made its weekly low of 0.9666 on Friday before reversing direction on short covering. This brought AUD/USD to close at 0.9765, showing an overall loss of a whopping -6.2% on the week.

USD/CAD shot up last week as risk aversion and mixed Canadian economic data pushed the Greenback up to close over parity for the first time since January. The rate began the week on a soft note, trading higher from its weekly low of 0.9799 in the absence of any significant economic data coming out of either country. On Tuesday, the rate rose slightly as the Canadian Leading Index came out with a flat reading, while Canadian Wholesale Sales increased by +0.8% m/m, versus an expected increase of +0.7%. The pair then began to rally on Wednesday after the U.S. Fed announced its latest economic stimulus measures, and despite Canadian Core CPI increasing by +0.4% m/m, versus an expected increase of only +0.1%. Thursday saw the Loonie strengthen correctly despite Canadian Core Retail Sales coming out with a flat reading, versus an expected increase of +0.2%, while Retail Sales declined by -0.6% compared with the -0.2% anticipated. USD/CAD went on to close the week at 1.0293, showing an overall gain of +4.9% from its previous weekly close.

NZD/USD closed sharply lower last week as risk aversion hit the commodity dollars especially hard, and New Zealand’s GDP came out lower than expected. Nevertheless, the rate began the week on a positive note, with the Kiwi rising marginally after the NZ Westpac Consumer Sentiment survey came out with a reading of 112.0 that was unchanged from its previous reading. The rate then consolidated on Tuesday, despite the New Zealand Current Account showing a deficit of -0.92B that was wider than the -0.69B expected. The rate then declined dramatically during the rest of the week as New Zealand reported GDP had grown only +0.1% q/q, versus an expected increase of +0.5%, and after the U.S. Fed announced its new “Operation Twist” stimulus program. NZD/USD then made its weekly low of 0.7722 on Friday before trading up to close at 0.7744, and showing a huge overall loss of -7.1% for the week.

The Week Ahead

AUD: This week’s Australian economic calendar is considerably quieter than last week, and it features Wednesday’s tentatively scheduled HIA New Home Sales (last -8.0%) data and Friday’s Private Sector Credit data (0.2%). Resistance for AUD/USD is seen at 0.9925 and 1.0176, with support noted at 0.9667/89 and 0.9537. To view live charts follow these links: AUD/USD AUD/EUR AUD/GBP AUD/JPY AUD/NZD

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• AUD/USD

CAD: This week’s Canadian economic calendar is considerably quieter than last week, and it features key GDP data (0.3%) due out on Friday. Prior to that, BOC Governor Carney speaks on Sunday, and the RMPI (-1.6%) will be Thursday’s highlight. Resistance for USD/CAD is seen at 1.0360/79, followed by 1.0506, with support initially showing at 1.0223 and then at 1.0025 ahead of the psychological 1.0000 parity level. To view live charts follow these links: CAD/USD

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• CAD/USD

EUR: This week’s Eurozone economic calendar is somewhat quieter than last week, and features the German Ifo Business Climate survey (107) on Monday. Sunday starts the week with a speech by ECB President Trichet, while Tuesday’s highlights include the GfK German Consumer Climate survey (5.1), and M3 Money Supply (2.0%). Wednesday features German Preliminary CPI (-0.1%), and Thursday the German Unemployment Change (-9K). Friday will round out the week on a busy note with German Retail Sales (-0.4%), French Consumer Spending (0.2%), EZ CPI Flash Estimate (2.5%), and the EZ Unemployment Rate (10.0%). Resistance for EUR/USD is seen around 1.3796, followed by 1.3936, and with support showing at 1.3494 and then at 1.3384. To view live charts follow these links: EUR/USD

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• EUR/USD

GBP: This week’s U.K. economic calendar is a bit less active than last week, and it will feature the important Nationwide HPI (0.2%) due out from Tuesday to Friday. To begin the week, MPC Member Broadbent speaks on Monday, while Tuesday will see MPC Member Posen speak, as well as the release of CBI Realized Sales (-14). Wednesday’s highlight will be the BOE Credit Conditions Survey, while Thursday’s will be a speech by MPC Member Miles and Net Lending to Individuals (0.7K). Friday features GfK Consumer Confidence (-33) to conclude the week. Resistance to the topside for GBP/USD shows at 1.5632 and 1.5745, whilst support for the pair is expected at 1.5326/55, 1.5293 and 1.5123. To view live charts follow these links: GBP/USD

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• GBP/USD

JPY: This week’s Japanese economic calendar is busier than last week, and features Tokyo Core CPI data released on Friday. Before that, Thursday’s highlight will be Retail Sales (-0.6%), and a tentatively scheduled speech by BOJ Governor Shirakawa. Friday then ends the week featuring Household Spending (-2.6%), and Preliminary Industrial Production (1.5%). Resistance for USD/JPY currently shows up at 76.96/77.30 and 77.85, whilst support is expected at 75.94/76.10 ahead of the psychological 75.00 level. To view live charts follow these links: JPY/USD

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• JPY/USD

NZD: This week’s New Zealand economic calendar is a bit quieter than last week, and it will feature the key Building Consents (last 13.0%), and NBNZ Business Confidence (34.4) data due out on Friday. Monday will also feature the NZ Trade Balance (-315M). The chart for NZD/USD shows resistance at 0.7892 and 0.7962. On the downside, technical support is expected at 0.7722, followed by 0.7654. To view live charts follow these links: NZD/USD

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• NZD/USD

USD: This week’s U.S. economic calendar is somewhat more active than last week, with the main focus being the CB Consumer Confidence survey (46.4) due out on Tuesday. To start the week, a speech by FOMC Member Raskin and New Home Sales (296K) are Monday’s highlights. Tuesday then offers the S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI (-4.4%), while Wednesday features Core Durable Goods Orders (0.2%), Durable Goods Orders (-0.4%), and a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke. Thursday’s highlights include Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (420K), Final GDP (1.2%), and Pending Home Sales (-1.6%), while Friday concludes the week with the Core PCE Price Index (0.2%), Personal Spending (0.2%), the Chicago PMI (56.0), and the Revised University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey (57.9).

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EUR/USD rose last week despite a possible Greek default, a Moody’s downgrade to French banks and Italy in talks with China to buy Italian bonds.

The rate began the week gapping lower making its weekly low of 1.3494 before recovering and trading higher. The rate originally declined on concerns of a Greek default as 2-year Greek bonds exceeded a yield of 60% and the Friday resignation of Jurgen Stark from the ECB. On Tuesday the pair consolidated after a disappointing auction of 3.9B in 5-year Italian bonds. The yield on the bonds jumped to 5.6%, versus a yield of 4.93% for an equivalent bond issued in July. There was speculation that Italy was talking to China about investment in Italy, nevertheless, there were reports China was not buying Italian bonds.

Midweek the rate rallied after EC President Barroso proposed the introduction of new Euro bonds. Economic releases had U.S Retail Sales come out with a flat reading m/m, versus an expected increase of +0.2%, while Core Retail Sales increase by only +0.1% versus a consensus of a +-0.2% increase. Also, U.S. PPI came out with a flat reading m/m , versus an expected increase of +0.2% and EZ Industrial Production rose only +1.0%, versus an expected increase of +1.5%. It made its weekly high of 1.3936 after the ECB announced a co-ordinated effort between the U.S. Fed, BOJ, SNB and BOE to provide USD liquidity through three operations through the end of the year. Economic releases had U.S. CPI increase by +0.4% m/m, versus an expected increase of +0.2%, while Core CPI rose +0.2% m/m, as widely anticipated. Also, the U.S. Current Account showed a deficit of -118B, versus an expected deficit of -122B. European releases had EZ CPI increase by +2.5% y/y and Core CPI increase by +1.2% y/y, both meeting market expectations.

The pair then sold off after disappointing results from the ECOFIN meeting held in Poland with no progress on the Greek situation. Economic release had the EZ Current Account come in at a deficit of -12.9B, significantly wider than the deficit of -5.6B that was expected. U.S. data had TIC Long Term Purchases come out at a dismal 9.5B versus an expected 31.3B and the Preliminary U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment at 57.8, edging the consensus of a 57.3 print. EUR/USD went on to close at 1.3795, increasing by +1.0% overall on the week.

USD/JPY lost ground last week as risk appetite increased and asset flows favoured the Yen over the Greenback. The rate began the week making its weekly high of 77.58 before it declined after the BOJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes stated, “the Bank''s monetary policy stance that it would enhance monetary easing by increasing the total size of the Program by about 10 trillion yen, from about 40 trillion yen to about 50 trillion yen.” Also, the Japanese BSI Manufacturing Index came out at +10.3, significantly higher than the previous reading of -23.3, and Japanese Tertiary Industry Activity, which declined by -0.1% versus an expected increase of +0.3%. The rate continued weakening as the United States reported weaker than expected Retail Sales numbers making its weekly low of 76.55 before selling off and ending marginally higher after the U.S. reported mixed economic data.

The pair rose marginally after an agreement was reached having the BOJ along with other central banks intervene to provide liquidity in the forex market. USD/JPY went on to close the week at 76.83, a decline of -0.8% from its previous weekly close.

GBP/USD declined last week as both the U.S. and the UK reported mixed economic data. Cable began the week trading off of its weekly high of 1.5884 in the absence of any significant economic data out of either the U.S. or the UK. The rate then dropped sharply after MPC member Adam Posen stated that, “high inflation is not a threat” and that the Asset Purchase Facility could be expanded by 100B.

In economic releases, UK RICS House Price Balance came in at -23%, versus an expected decline of -22%. Also, the UK Trade Balance showed a deficit of -8.9B, versus -8.5B that was expected and UK CPI that came out at 4.5% y/y, as widely expected, while the UK RPI rose to 5.2% y/y, versus an expected 5.0% print. On Wednesday the pair continued its decline making its weekly low of 1.5705 as the United States reported mixed economic data and despite the UK reporting Claimant Count Change at 20.3K considerably lower than the 34.8K that was expected. Also, the Average Earnings Index rose by +2.8%, edging the consensus of a +2.7% rise.

Cable then rallied as UK Retail Sales declined by -0.2% m/m as widely anticipated, and UK Consumer Inflation Expectations came out at 4.2%, versus a previous reading of 3.9%. GBP/USD went on to close at 1.5797, showing a decline of -0.6% for the week.

AUD/USD extended the previous week’s decline as risk aversion and weaker Australian economic data weighed on the Aussie. The week began with the Aussie dropping sharply after making its weekly high of 1.0458 as risk aversion dominated the market after continued concerns in the Eurozone. Also weighing on the Aussie was the Australian Trade Balance, which came out showing a surplus of +1.83B, versus an expected surplus of +1.91B with the previous number significantly revised down from +2.05B to +1.82B. The pair continued sliding after the Australian NAB Business Confidence Survey came out at -8, versus a previous reading of +2.

The rate made its weekly low of 1.0175 on Wednesday despite Australian Westpac Consumer Sentiment printing at +8.1%, versus a previous reading of -3.5%. The pair then rallied after Australian MI Inflation Expectations printed at 2.8%, versus a previous reading of 2.7%, while Australian New Motor Vehicle Sales came out at 3.3% m/m, versus a previous reading of 8.6% revised upwards to 9.0%. The Aussie continued climbing as the United States reported a dismal TIC Long-Term Purchases number and the price of gold traded over the $1,800 per ounce level. AUD/USD went on to close at 1.0365, declining by -0.8% overall on the week.

USD/CAD lost ground last week as Canada reported better than expected economic data. The rate began the week on a positive note, making its weekly high of 1.0025 before dropping sharply in the absence of any significant economic data out of either country. The pair then rallied midweek despite the United States reporting disappointing Retail Sales and PPI, and the Canadian Capacity Utilization Rate coming out at 78.4%, versus 79% that was expected. On Thursday USD/CAD dropped sharply after Canadian Manufacturing Sales increased by +2.7% m/m, versus an expected increase of just +1.3%.

The pair continued its sharp decline after Canadian Foreign Securities Purchases came out at 11.78B, versus a previous reading of -3.45B, and finishing the week on its weekly low of 0.9789, declining by 0.7% overall from its previous weekly close. NZD/USD gained last week as the RBNZ left rates unchanged and the United States reported mixed economic data. The rate began the week rallying after making its weekly low of 0.8117 after New Zealand Manufacturing Sales came out with an increase of +2.1% q/q, versus a previous reading of +2.7%. The pair declined marginally on Wednesday as the RBNZ left the benchmark Official Cash Rate at 2.5% as was widely expected. The RBNZ revised growth and inflation estimates downward and is not expected to raise rates until at least 2012.

On Friday the Kiwi made its weekly high of 0.8339 before selling off on profit taking, bringing the rate to close at 0.8293, showing an overall gain of +1.0 for the week.

The Week Ahead

AUD: This week’s Australian economic calendar features the all important RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes due out Tuesday. On Thursday RBA Deputy Governor Battellino and the Assistant Governor Lowe both speak with the market likely to be sensitive to comments from the central bank. Resistance for AUD/USD is seen at 1.0380 and 1.0480 with support at 1.0310 and 1.0250

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• AUD/USD

CAD: This week’s Canadian economic calendar features key CPI data due out on Wednesday. Prior to that though Tuesday sees the release of the Leading Index (0.2%), Wholesale Sales (0.6%), and BOC Governor Carney speaks. On Thursday the all important Retail Sales (0.2%) data is released.

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• CAD/USD

EUR: This week’s Eurozone economic calendar is somewhat busier than last week featuring German ZEW Economic Sentiment survey on Tuesday in addition to German PPI (0.2%) and ZEW Economic Sentiment Thursday sees a plethora of second tier data in the form of French Flash Manufacturing PMI (48.6), French Flash Services PMI (54.4), German Flash Manufacturing PMI (50.2), German Flash Services PMI (50.6), Flash Manufacturing PMI (48.6), Flash Services PMI (51.1), Industrial New Orders (-1.1%), and Consumer Confidence (-18). To round up the week all eyes will be on ECB President Trichet as he speaks in Bretton Woods, Washington. Resistance for EUR/USD is seen initially around 1.3935 followed by 1.3970 with support initially at 1.3753 and then 1.3720.

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• EUR/USD

GBP: This week’s U.K. economic calendar is a bit less active than last week, and it will feature the important MPC Meeting Minutes due out on Wednesday. To begin the week Rightmove HPI (last -2.1%), and the BOE Quarterly Bulletin are released on Monday followed by Nationwide Consumer Confidence (tentative, 49) on Tuesday. Resistance to the topside for GBP/USD shows at 1.5840 and, 1.5951whilst support for the pair is expected at 1.5750 and 1.5705.

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• GBP/USD

JPY: This week’s Japanese economic calendar is even quieter than last week with a bank holiday on Monday and Friday. The main feature will be Trade Balance and All Industries Activity data due out on Wednesday before the weekends IMF Meetings. Resistance for USD/JPY currently shows up initially at 77.00 followed by 77.30 whilst above that resistance shows at 80.20. Initial support for the rate is seen at 76.70 followed by 76.00. Below that, support is expected at the psychological 75.00 and 70.00 levels.

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• JPY/USD

NZD: This week’s New Zealand economic calendar is about as active as last week, and it will feature the key GDP data due out on Thursday. On Monday the Westpac Consumer Sentiment (last 112.0) is scheduled for release to be followed by Wednesday’s Current Account (-0.69B), Visitor Arrivals (last 2.0%), and Credit Card Spending (last 7.3%). The key however is Thursday’s GDP with the market looking for any deviation away from 0.5% as a signal. The chart for NZD/USD shows initial resistance at 0.8325 and 0.8425. On the downside technical support is expected at 0.8280 followed by 0.8150.

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• NZD/USD

USD: This week’s U.S. economic calendar is considerably quieter than last week, with the main focus being the key Fed Rate Decision due out on Wednesday. To start the week we get some key property related data in the form of NAHB Housing Market Index, Building Permits (0.60M) and Housing Starts (0.59M). Thursday sees weekly Initial Jobless Claims (418K), CB Leading Index (0.2%), OFHEO HPI (0.0%), and Natural Gas Storage (last 87B) with IMF Meetings and FOMC Member Dudley speech rounding up the week.

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EUR



EUR/USD extended the previous week’s losses dropping sharply as Greek one year bonds hit a 98% yield and the ECB left rates unchanged, indicating a possible rate cut if the EZ economic situation continues deteriorating.

Monday – The Euro began the week gapping lower as German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s party lost in parliamentary elections in Merkel’s home state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. Economic releases saw EZ Retail Sales increase by +0.2% m/m, versus an expected increase of +0.1%.

Tuesday – The rate then rallied sharply making its weekly high of 1.4279 before a steep sell-off ensued after German Chancellor Merkel reportedly said that Greece will not receive the next installment from the bailout fund unless the country met financial conditions. Economic releases had EZ Revised GDP increase by +0.2% as widely expected, while German Factory Orders dropped -2.8% m/m versus an expected decline of -1.4%. In U.S. numbers, ISM Non Manufacturing PMI came out at 53.3, versus an expected reading of 51.2.

Wednesday – The pair then reversed direction and gained ground after Germany’s constitutional court ruled in favour or German participation in the bailout of other EZ countries. In economic releases, German Industrial Production increased by +4.0, significantly higher than the +0.6% increase that was expected.

Thursday – The rate declined sharply after the ECB left the benchmark Minimum Bid Rate unchanged at 1.5% as was widely anticipated. In the post announcement statement, ECB’s Trichet stated that “we expect the euro area economy to grow moderately, subject to particularly high uncertainty and intensified downside risks.” Economic data saw the U.S. Trade Balance show a deficit of -44.8B, considerably narrower than the -50.6B consensus.

Friday – The pair continued trading sharply lower making its weekly low of 1.3626 after ECB Governing Council member Jurgen Stark resigned. Speculation in the market was that the resignation was due to disagreement over the reactivation of the ECB’s bond buying program in August. EUR/USD went on to close at 1.3660, showing an overall loss of -3.9% for the week.

JPY

USD/JPY gained ground last week as the BOJ left rates unchanged and refrained from adding additional stimulus measures.

Monday – The rate began the week on a soft note, making its weekly low of 76.68 in the absence of any significant economic data out of either the United States or Japan.

Tuesday – The pair traded sharply higher as asset flows favoured the Greenback as a safe haven currency in light of the turmoil in Europe.

Wednesday – The rate then came down after the BOJ left its benchmark Overnight Call Rate unchanged at <0.10% and the Asset Purchase Program at 50T as widely anticipated. At the press conference following the rate decision, BOJ Governor Shirakawa stated that, “We decided on monetary easing measures at the previous meeting in advance, taking into account risk that the economy could falter.”

Thursday – The pair then rallied after Japanese Core Machinery Orders declined by -8.2% m/m, significantly lower than the drop of -3.9% that was expected. Also, the Japanese Current Account came out with a surplus of +0.75T, missing expectations of a +0.99T surplus.

Friday – The rate consolidated after Japanese Final GDP came out showing a decline of -0.5% q/q, in line with expectations. Also, the Final GDP Price Index declined by -2.2% y/y, also as widely anticipated. USD/JPY went on to close at 77.48, a gain of +0.9% from its previous weekly close.

GBP C 1.5878 PC 1.6223 H 1.6204 Tuesday L 1.5842 Friday -2.2%

GBP/USD continued declining last week as the BOE left rates unchanged and the UK reported weaker economic data.

Monday – Cable began the week gapping lower as risk aversion negatively affected the rate. In economic releases, UK Services PMI came out at 51.1, missing the consensus of a 54.3 print. Tuesday – The pair then dropped sharply after making its weekly high of 1.6204 after the UK BRC Retail Sales Monitor declined by -0.6% y/y, versus a previous reading of +0.6%. Also weighing on the rate was a positive U.S. ISM Non Manufacturing PMI number.

Wednesday – Cable rallied despite news the UK Halifax HPI declined by -1.2% m/m, versus an expected increase of +0.5%. Also, UK Manufacturing Production increased by +0.1% as widely expected.

Thursday – The pair then continued its decline after rising sharply as the BOE left its benchmark Official Bank Rate unchanged at 0.50% and the Asset Purchase Facility at 200B. Details of the rate decision were not disclosed and will be divulged at the MPC Meeting Minutes on the 21st.

Friday – The rate continued its steep decline making its weekly low of 1.5842 as the UK reported PPI Input declining by -1.9% m/m versus an expected decline of -1.6%, while PPI Output increased by +0.1%. Also, UK CB Leading Index increased by +0.3% m/m versus a previous flat reading. GBP/USD then rallied on position squaring to close the week at 1.5878 showing an overall decline of -2.2%.

AUD

AUD/USD lost ground last week as the RBA left rates unchanged and Australia reported negative employment numbers.

Monday – The rate started the week gapping lower as risk aversion put pressure on the Aussie. Economic numbers had the Australian AIG Services Index come out at 52.1, versus a previous reading of 48.8, while ANZ Job Advertisements declined by -0.6% m/m, versus a previous reading of -0.7% revised down to -0.6%. Also out were Australian Company Operating Profits, which increased by +6.7%, considerably higher than the consensus of a +3.1% increase.

Tuesday – The Aussie continued heading south as the RBA left its benchmark Cash Rate unchanged at 4.75%. In the accompanying statement, Governor Glenn Stevens noted that, “Overall, the near-term growth outlook continues to look somewhat weaker than was expected a few months ago. Beyond the near term, growth is still likely to be at trend or higher, unless the world economic outlook continues to deteriorate.” Also weighing on the rate were Australian Home Loans, which increased only +1.0% m/m, versus an expected increase of +1.6%, and the Australian Current Account, which came out showing a deficit of -7.4B, in line with expectations.

Wednesday – The rate rallied after Australian GDP increased by +1.2% q/q, beating estimates of a +1.0% increase. In a speech in Perth, RBA Governor Stevens stated that, “Periods of sudden increases in anxiety within international financial markets are moments when, if at all possible, it is good to be in a position to be able to maintain steady settings.”

Thursday – The pair sold off sharply after making its weekly high of 1.0656 as Australian Employment Change showed a loss of -9.7K jobs, versus an expected increase of +10.7K with the previous number revised significantly lower from -0.1K to -4.1K. Also, the Australian Unemployment Rate increased to 5.3% from 5.1%.

Friday – The rate continued selling off making its weekly low of 1.0420 as risk assets continued sliding. AUD/USD went on to close at 1.0453, showing an overall decline of -1.9% from its previous weekly close.

CAD

USD/CAD gained ground last week as the BOC left rates unchanged and Canada reported mixed economic data.

Monday – The rate began the week trading higher in the absence of any significant economic data out of either the United States or Canada.

Tuesday – The pair continued advancing as the United States reported a better than expected ISM Non Manufacturing PMI.

Wednesday – The rate headed south after the BOC left its benchmark Overnight Rate unchanged at 1.0%. Also out was the Canadian Ivey PMI, which came out with a reading of 57.6, considerably higher than the consensus of a 46.7 print. Thursday – The pair then rose after making its weekly low of 0.9828 despite Canadian Building Permits coming out with an increase of +6.3% m/m, significantly higher than the increase of +0.2% that was expected and the Canadian Trade Balance, which came out at a deficit of -0.8B as widely anticipated. Friday – The rate then made its weekly high of 0.9977 after Canadian Employment Change came out at -5.5K, considerably worse than the increase of +24.2K that was expected, and the Canadian Unemployment Rate, which held steady at 7.3%. Also out were Canadian Housing Starts increasing to +185K versus a consensus of +200K. USD/CAD went on to close at 0.9958, showing an overall gain of +1.2% for the week.

NZD 8206 PC 0.8454 H 0.8451 Monday L 0.8190 Friday -1.9%

NZD/USD declined last week as risk assets sold off and in the absence of any significant economic data out of New Zealand.

Monday – The pair began the week trading lower after making its weekly high of 0.8451 as risk aversion took the commodity dollars lower.

Tuesday – The rate continued tanking as the United States reported a favourable ISM Non Manufacturing PMI number.

Wednesday – The pair then traded higher as risk assets benefited from Germany’s court decision to participate in EZ bailouts.

Thursday – The rate then sold off after the United States reported a favourable Trade Balance number.

Friday – The pair then made its weekly low of 0.8190 as the Greenback strengthened across the board. NZD/USD went on to close the week at 0.8206, showing an overall loss of -1.9% for the week.

The Week Ahead

AUD: This week’s Australian economic calendar is quieter than last week, and it will feature the important Trade Balance data due out Monday. Monday Trade Balance (1.91B). Tuesday NAB Business Confidence (last 2). Wednesday Westpac Consumer Sentiment (last -3.5%), and Housing Starts (2.1%). Thursday MI Inflation Expectations (last 2.7%), New Motor Vehicle Sales (last 8.6%), and the RBA Bulletin. Technical Overview – Initial resistance for AUD/USD is seen at 1.0473, 1.0481, 1.0511, 1.0564/70, 1.0624, 1.0633, 1.0659, 1.0683/93, 1.0718/26, 1.0763, and 1.0784. Above that, resistance shows at 1.0909, 1.1000, 1.1010/15 and 1.1064/79, with additional psychological resistance probable at 1.1500. Support for AUD/USD is indicated initially at 1.0420, 1.0415, 1.0384, 1.0357/60, 1.0313, 1.0244, 1.0203, 1.0169, 1.0110, 1.0090 and 1.0062 ahead of the key psychological 1.0000 parity level. Below that, support shows at 0.9925, 0.9803 and 0.9704.

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• AUD/USD

CAD: This week’s Canadian economic calendar is considerably quieter than the previous week, and it features Manufacturing Sales data due out Thursday. Wednesday Capacity Utilization Rate (79.7%). Thursday Manufacturing Sales (1.3%) and New Motor Vehicle Sales (last 10.8%). Friday Foreign Securities Purchases (last -3.46B). Technical Overview – The chart for USD/CAD shows initial resistance at 0.9963/67 and in the 0.9974/1.0057 region that lies around the key psychological 1.0000 level. Above that, resistance shows at 1.0088, 1.0139, 1.0208 and 1.0236. Initial support for the rate shows up at 0.9931/37, 0.9922, 0.9907, 0.9867, 0.9849, 0.9828, 0.9816, 0.9763/96, 0.9734/39, 0.9724, 0.9686, 0.9645, 0.9567 and 0.9526. Below that, support shows at 0.9496, 0.9448/56, 0.9422, 0.9405/09, and at the long term low of 0.9056 that lies just ahead of psychological support at 0.9000.

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• CAD/USD

EUR: This week’s Eurozone economic calendar is considerably quieter than last week, and it will feature EZ CPI data due out on Thursday. Sunday ECB President Trichet speaks. Monday Italian Industrial Production (0.2%). Tuesday French CPI (0.3%). Wednesday Industrial Production (1.5%). Thursday ECB Monthly Bulletin, EZ CPI (2.5%), EZ Core CPI (1.2%), EZ Employment Change (0.2%), and ECB President Trichet speaks. Friday EZ Current Account (-5.6B), Italian Trade Balance (-1.97B), and EZ Trade Balance (1.7B). Technical Overview – Resistance for EUR/USD is seen initially at 1.3872, 1.3972, 1.4103, 1.4147, 1.4258, 1.4279, 1.4327, 1.4499/1.4503, 1.4535/48, 1.4576, 1.4642/56 and 1.4695. Above that, resistance shows at 1.4881, 1.4939 and 1.5144. Support shows initially at 1.3703/23, 1.3626, 1.3524/45 and 1.3420/98. Below that, support is indicated at 1.3333, 1.2968, and 1.2873.

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• EUR/USD

GBP: This week’s U.K. economic calendar is a bit less active than last week, and it will feature the important Claimant Count Change data due out on Wednesday. Tuesday Nationwide Consumer Confidence (13th-19th, last 49), RICS House Price Balance (-22%), CPI (4.5%), RPI (5.0%), Trade Balance (-8.5B), Core CPI (3.0%), DCLG HPI (-1.1%), and MPC Member Posen speaks. Wednesday Claimant Count Change (34.6K), Average Earnings Index (2.7%), and the Unemployment Rate (7.9%). Thursday Retail Sales (-0.2%), and Consumer Inflation Expectations (last 3.9%). Technical Overview – Resistance to the topside for GBP/USD shows initially at 1.5912/19, 1.5951, 1.6000, 1.6037, 1.6081, 1.6130, 1.6204/06, 1.6252/59, 1.6332, 1.6347, 1.6434 and 1.6452. Above that, resistance shows as 1.6500, 1.6532/98, 1.6616, 1.6720/1.6744, 1.6876 and 1.7040. Support for the pair is indicated initially at 1.5842, 1.5824, 1.5777 and 1.5750. Below that, support shows at 1.5500, 1.5483, 1.5343/55, 1.5293, 1.5123, 1.5000 and 1.4872.

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• GBP/USD

JPY: This week’s Japanese economic calendar is considerably quieter than last week, and it will feature the BOJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes due out Monday. Monday BSI Manufacturing Index (last -23.3), Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, Tertiary Industry Activity (0.3%), and CGPI (2.7%). Wednesday Revised Industrial Production (0.6%). Technical Overview – Resistance for USD/JPY currently shows up initially at 77.71, 77.85, 78.02, 78.66, 79.05, 79.40 and 80.00. Above that, resistance shows at 80.22, 80.82, 81.34, 81.76, 82.01/22, 82.77, 83.09 and 83.77. Initial support for the rate is seen at 77.42, 77.13, 77.06/08, 76.71, 76.28/58 and 75.94. Below that, support is expected at the psychological 75.00 and 70.00 levels.

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• JPY/USD

NZD: This week’s New Zealand economic calendar is considerably busier than last week, and it will feature the key RBNZ Rate Decision due out on Thursday. Tuesday REINZ HPI (13th-17th, last -0.6%), FPI (last 2.0%), and Manufacturing Sales (last 2.9%). Thursday Official Cash Rate (2.50%), RBNZ Press Conference, RBNZ Rate Statement, RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement, and the Business NZ Manufacturing Index (last 53.2). Technical Overview – The chart for NZD/USD shows initial resistance at 0.8212, 0.8252/62, 0.8327, 0.8365, 0.8381/86, 0.8423, 0.8469/72, 0.8500, 0.8534/75, 0.8676, 0.8764, 0.8793 and 0.8841, with psychological resistance probable above that at the 0.9000 and 0.9500 levels. Support shows up initially at 0.8190, 0.8175, 0.8158, 0.8150, 0.8126, 0.8109, 0.8060/93 and 0.8007/44 above the psychological 0.8000 level. Below that, support shows at 0.7971, 0.7962, 0.7950, 0.7816 and 0.7754.

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• NZD/USD

USD: This week’s U.S. economic calendar is considerably busier than last week, and it will feature the key Retail Sales data due out on Wednesday. Monday FOMC Member Fisher speaks Tuesday Import Prices (-0.6%), IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (last 35.8), and the Federal Budget Balance (-126.5B). Wednesday Core Retail Sales (0.2%), PPI (-0.1%), Retail Sales (0.2%), Core PPI (0.3%), Treasury Secretary Geithner speaks, Business Inventories (0.4%), and Crude Oil Inventories (last -4.0M). Thursday Core CPI (0.2%), Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (410K), CPI (0.3%), Current Account (-121B), Empire State Manufacturing Index (-3.9), Capacity Utilization Rate (77.5%), Industrial Production (0.1%), Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (-14.4), Natural Gas Storage (last 64B), and FOMC Member Tarullo speaks. Friday TIC Long-Term Purchases 27.3B 3.7B Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (56.2), and Preliminary University of Michigan Inflation Expectations (last 3.5%).

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EUR



EUR/USD lost considerable ground last week after renewed concerns over Greece not meeting its budget deficit target sent yields on Greek 2-year bonds over 47 percent.

Monday – The week began on a positive note with the rate making its weekly high of 1.4548 as German Preliminary CPI declined by -0.1% m/m, versus an expected flat reading. In addition, U.S. Pending Home Sales declined by -1.3% m/m versus an expected decline of -0.8%. Also, in his testimony before the European Parliament''s Economic Committee, ECB President Trichet commented that “While the underlying momentum of economic growth in the euro area continues to be positive, uncertainty remains elevated.”

Tuesday – The rate began heading south despite the U.S. FOMC Meeting Minutes inferring that additional stimulus measures might be adopted in September, the minutes stated that the “downside risks to the economic outlook have increased.”

Wednesday – The pair continued weakening as German Unemployment Change declined by -8K, versus a consensus of a -10K drop, and EZ Unemployment, which increased to 10.0% from 9.9%. In U.S. numbers, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change came out at 91K, versus a consensus of 102K, also out were Factory Orders, which increased by +2.4% m/m, versus an expected increase of just +1.8%.

Thursday – The rate continued its decline after a positive U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI, which came out at 50.6, significantly higher than the consensus of a 48.7 print, also, Initial Jobless Claims came out as expected at 409K. European numbers had EZ Final Manufacturing PMI, which came out at 49.0, just missing the consensus of a 49.7 print.

Friday – The pair continued trading sharply lower making its weekly low of 1.4183 after Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos stated that the country’s deficit target of 7.4% would have to be raised. The finance minister also spoke on Sunday stating that, “The government is discussing with the troika the macro-economic framework and fiscal targets for 2011 and 2012. Both we, and our partners, realise what the situation is, what the needs are and what the priorities of the Greek economy are in order that it may permanently exit the crisis,” Greece has been given 10 days by the IMF to put the austerity measures back on track. In U.S. economic releases, Non-Farm Payrolls came out with a flat reading, versus an expected increase of +74K jobs, while U.S. Unemployment held steady at 9.1%. EUR/USD went on to close at 1.4194, showing an overall loss of -2.1% from its previous weekly close.

JPY

USD/JPY traded in a narrow range last week, rising marginally as both the United States and Japan released mixed economic numbers.

Monday – The rate began the week on a positive note, rising somewhat after Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda was confirmed as the new Japanese Prime Minister.

Tuesday – The pair dropped after Japanese Household Spending declined by -2.1% y/y, lower than the consensus of a -2.9% decline. Also, Japanese Unemployment increased to 4.7% from 4.6%.

Wednesday – The rate continued trading lower making its weekly low of 76.41 after Japanese Housing Starts increased by +21.2% y/y, significantly higher than the consensus of a +4.7% increase. Other Japanese economic releases included Preliminary Industrial Production, which increased by only +0.6% m/m, versus an expected increase of +1.6%, and Average Cash Earnings, which declined by -0.1% y/y, versus an expected decline of -0.4%.

Thursday – The pair then rallied, making its weekly high of 77.22 after a positive U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI number.

Friday – The rate declined somewhat after a disappointing U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls number and despite Japanese Capital Spending, which declined by -7.8% q/y, considerably lower than the increase of +1.1% that was expected. USD/JPY went on to close at 76.82, a gain of +0.2% for the week.

GBP

GBP/USD extended the previous week’s losses as the UK reported increasingly weaker economic numbers.

Monday – Cable began the week on a positive note trading up to its weekly high of 1.6452 as the UK observed the Summer Bank Holiday and the United States reported a weaker Pending Home Sales number.

Tuesday – The pair then dropped sharply as UK Net Lending to Individuals increased by only +0.9B m/m, versus an expected increase of +1.1B, while the UK M4 Money Supply contracted by -0.1% m/m, versus an expected increase of +0.4%.

Wednesday – Cable continued heading south after an opinion piece by Adam Posen appeared on Reuters; the MPC calling for further QE stated that “Too much attention has been paid to the failings of fiscal policies and to the shortfall from effects of earlier quantitative easing. Further asset purchases by the G7 central banks are needed to check not just a downturn, but the lasting erosion of productive capacity and of debt sustainability.” In economic releases, UK GfK Consumer Confidence printed at -31, just edging the consensus of a -32 print.

Thursday – The pair continued its decline, making its weekly low of 1.6130 as UK Nationwide HPI declined by -0.6% m/m, versus an expected increase of +0.1%, while UK Manufacturing PMI came out at 49.0 as was widely expected.

Friday – The rate then traded higher after a flat U.S. Non Farm Payrolls number and UK Construction PMI, which came out at 52.6 as was widely anticipated. GBP/USD went on to close at 1.6223, showing an overall loss of -0.8% for the week.

AUD

AUD/USD continued its advance last week as Australia reported improved economic numbers with asset flows favouring the Aussie.

Monday – The rate started the week trading higher off of its weekly low of 1.0558 as the U.S. reported weaker housing numbers and Australian HIA New Home Sales declined by -8.0% m/m, versus a previous reading of -8.7%.

Tuesday – The Aussie continued gaining ground as the price of gold rallied $40 per ounce and despite Australian Building Approvals increasing by only +1.0% m/m, versus an expected increase of +2.1%.

Wednesday – The rate continued advancing as Australian Private Sector Credit increased by +0.2% m/m as widely expected, and the United States reported a lower than expected ADP Non-Farm Employment Change number.

Thursday – The pair continued trading higher making its weekly high of 1.0762 as Australian Retail Sales increased by +0.5% m/m, versus an expected increase of +0.3%. Also out was Australian Private Capital Expenditure, which increased by +4.9% q/q beating estimates of a +4.1% increase, and the Australian AIG Manufacturing Index, which came out at 43.3 versus a previous reading of 43.4.

Friday – The rate then sold off on risk aversion and despite a flat U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls number and a rising gold market. AUD/USD went on to close at 1.0652, gaining +0.7% from its previous weekly close.

CAD

USD/CAD edged higher last week after trading in a narrow range as lower crude oil prices and negative Canadian economic numbers weighed on the Loonie.

Monday – The rate began the week trading lower as the United States reported weaker Pending Home Sales.

Tuesday – The pair then traded higher after the Canadian Current Account showed a deficit of -15.3B, versus an expected deficit of -13.6B with the previous number significantly revised upward from -8.9B to -10.1B. Also weighing on the Loonie was Canadian RMPI, which declined by -1.2% m/m, significantly lower than the increase of +0.2% that was expected.

Wednesday – The rate consolidated after making its weekly low of 0.9724 after Canadian GDP came out showing an increase of +0.2% as was widely anticipated.

Thursday – The pair then declined marginally despite a positive U.S. ISM Manufacturing number.

Friday – The rate then made its weekly high of 0.9845 despite a flat Non-Farm Payrolls number. USD/CAD went on to close at 0.9840, gaining a total of 12 pips and virtually unchanged on the week.

NZD

NZD/USD extended its gains from last week as risk appetite increased in the market and New Zealand reported improving economic data. Monday – The pair began the week trading higher after making its weekly low of 0.8383 as the United States reported lower Pending Home Sales. Tuesday – The rate continued trading higher as New Zealand reported Building Consents had increased by 13.0% m/m, versus a previous reading of -1.4% revised upward to -1.0%.

Wednesday – The pair continued higher, making its weekly high of 0.8570 as the United States reported a lower than expected ADP Non-Farm Employment Change number and despite NBNZ Business Confidence printing at 34.4, versus a previous reading of 47.6.

Thursday – The rate then sold off after ANZ Commodity Prices declined by -1.2%, versus a previous reading of -0.2% and the United States reported a better than expected ISM Manufacturing PMI number.

Friday – The pair continued selling off in sympathy with the Aussie and despite a flat U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls number. NZD/USD went on to close at 0.8454, showing a gain of +0.7% from its previous weekly gain.

The Week Ahead

AUD: This week’s Australian economic calendar is about as quiet as last week, and it will feature the Employment Report due out Thursday. Monday AIG Services Index (last 48.8), MI Inflation Gauge (last 0.3%), ANZ Job Advertisements (last -0.7%), and Company Operating Profits (3.1%). Tuesday Home Loans (1.6%), Current Account (-7.0B), RBA Rate Decision, Cash Rate (4.75%), and RBA Rate Statement. Wednesday AIG Construction Index (last 36.1), and GDP (1.0%). Thursday Employment Change (10.4K), and the Unemployment Rate (5.1%). Technical Overview – Initial resistance for AUD/USD is seen at 1.0683/93, 1.0718/26, 1.0763, and 1.0784. Above that, resistance shows at 1.0909, 1.1000, 1.1010/15 and 1.1064/79, with additional psychological resistance probable at 1.1500. Support for AUD/USD is indicated initially at 1.0620/24, 1.0590, 1.0532, 1.0479, 1.0415, 1.0357/60, 1.0313, 1.0244, 1.0203, 1.0169, 1.0110, 1.0090 and 1.0062 ahead of the key psychological 1.0000 parity level. Below that, support shows at 0.9925, 0.9803 and 0.9704.

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• AUD/USD

CAD: This week’s Canadian economic calendar is considerably busier than the previous week, and it features the important Employment Report due out Friday. Monday Bank Holiday Wednesday BOC Rate Decision, BOC Rate Statement, Overnight Rate (1.00%), and Ivey PMI (46.7). Thursday Building Permits (4.3%), Trade Balance (-0.8B), and NHPI (0.4%). Friday Employment Change (23.4K), Unemployment Rate (7.3%), Housing Starts (200K), and Labor Productivity (0.2%). Technical Overview – The chart for USD/CAD shows initial resistance at 0.9845, 0.9908, 0.9917/25, 0.9937, 0.9953, 0.9967 and 0.9974/1.0057 around the key psychological 1.0000 level. Above that, resistance shows at 1.0008, 1.0030, 1.0057, 1.0088, 1.0139, 1.0208 and 1.0236. Initial support for the rate shows up at 0.9816, 0.9763/96, 0.9734/39, 0.9724, 0.9686, 0.9645, 0.9567 and 0.9526. Below that, support shows at 0.9496, 0.9448/56, 0.9422, 0.9405/09, and at the long term low of 0.9056 that lies just ahead of psychological support at 0.9000.

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• CAD/USD

EUR: This week’s Eurozone economic calendar is busier than last week, and it will feature the ECB Rate Decision on Thursday. Monday Final Services PMI (51.5), Sentix Investor Confidence (-17.5), and Retail Sales (0.1%). Tuesday Revised GDP (0.2%), and German Factory Orders (-1.4%). Wednesday German Industrial Production (0.6%). Thursday French Final Non-Farm Payrolls (0.4%), German Trade Balance (11.0B), French Trade Balance (-5.8B), ECB Rate Decision, Minimum Bid Rate (1.50%), and ECB Press Conference. Friday German Final CPI (-0.1%), German WPI (0.3%), French Industrial Production (0.4%), and French Government Budget Balance (last -61.3B). Technical Overview – Resistance for EUR/USD is seen initially at 1.4208, 1.4226, 1.4286, 1.4314, 1.4328, 1.4384, 1.4468, 1.4499/1.4503, 1.4535/48, 1.4576, 1.4642/56 and 1.4695. Above that, resistance shows at 1.4881, 1.4939 and 1.5144. Support shows initially at 1.4183, 1.4142/49, 1.4122/29, 1.4054, 1.4013, and 1.4000, and then below that at 1.3836, 1.3703/23, 1.3524/45 and 1.3420/98.

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• EUR/USD

GBP: This week’s U.K. economic calendar is busier than last week, and it will feature the important BOE Rate Decision due out on Thursday. Monday Services PMI (54.3). Tuesday BRC Retail Sales Monitor (last 0.6%), and Halifax HPI (6th-8th, 0.5%). Wednesday BRC Shop Price Index (last 2.8%), Manufacturing Production (0.1%), Industrial Production (0.0%), and NIESR GDP Estimate (last 0.6%). Thursday BOE Rate Decision, Asset Purchase Facility (200B), Official Bank Rate (0.50%), and MPC Rate Statement (tentative). Friday PPI Input (-1.6%), Trade Balance (last -8.9B), and PPI Output (0.2%). Technical Overview – Resistance to the topside for GBP/USD shows initially at 1.6252/59, 1.6332, 1.6347, 1.6434, 1.6452, 1.6532, 1.6542/98, 1.6616, and 1.6720/1.6744. Above that, resistance shows at 1.6876 and 1.7040. Support for the pair is indicated initially at 1.6206, 1.6130, 1.6109, 1.6067 and 1.6004 above the psychological 1.6000 level. Below that, support shows at 1.5990, 1.5972, in the 1.5910/30 region, at 1.5824, 1.5777 and 1.5750.

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• GBP/USD

JPY: This week’s Japanese economic calendar is considerably busier than last week, and it will feature the BOJ Rate Decision tentatively scheduled for Wednesday. Wednesday BOJ Rate Decision (tentative), Monetary Policy Statement, Overnight Call Rate (<0.10%), BOJ Press Conference, and Leading Indicators (105.9%). Thursday Core Machinery Orders (-3.7%), Bank Lending (last -0.5%), Current Account (0.99T), and Economy Watchers Sentiment (54.3). Friday Final GDP (-0.5%), Final GDP Price Index (-2.2%), M2 Money Stock (2.9%), and Household Confidence (41.3). Technical Overview – Resistance for USD/JPY currently shows up initially at 77.01, 77.19/29, 77.69, 77.78, 78.02, 78.66, 79.05, 79.40, 80.00 and 80.22. Above that, resistance shows at 80.82, 81.34, 81.76, 82.01/22, 82.77, 83.09 and 83.77. Initial support for the rate is seen at 76.28/58, 75.94 and at the psychological 75.00 and 70.00 levels.

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• JPY/USD

NZD: This week’s New Zealand economic calendar is considerably quieter than last week, and it will feature the important REINZ HPI data due out on Friday. Thursday Manufacturing Sales (last 2.9%). Friday REINZ HPI (last -0.6%). Technical Overview – The chart for NZD/USD shows initial resistance at 0.8469/72, 0.8543, 0.8555, 0.8571/75, 0.8676, 0.8764, 0.8793 and 0.8841, with psychological resistance probable above that at the 0.9000 and 0.9500 levels. Support shows up initially at 0.8433, 0.8415, 0.8365, 0.8287, 0.8270, 0.8252, 0.8212, 0.8175, 0.8158, 0.8150, 0.8126, 0.8109, 0.8060/93 and 0.8007/44 above the psychological 0.8000 level. Below that, support shows at 0.7971, 0.7962, 0.7950, 0.7816 and 0.7754.

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• NZD/USD

USD: This week’s U.S. economic calendar is quieter than last week, and it will feature the key Trade Balance data due out on Thursday. Monday Bank Holiday. Tuesday ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (51.3). Wednesday FOMC Member Evans speaks, and the Fed’s Beige Book. Thursday Trade Balance (-50.3B), Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (409K), Natural Gas Storage (last 55B), Crude Oil Inventories (last 5.3M), and Consumer Credit (6.5B). Friday President Obama speaks, and Wholesale Inventories (0.8%).

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EUR

EUR/USD extended the previous week’s gains as risk appetite increased and no indication for QEIII was given by Ben Bernanke in his speech at the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole Symposium.

Monday – The pair began the week on a soft note as the ECB revealed it had purchased €22B in government bonds during the week of August 8th – 12th.

Tuesday – The rate strengthened considerably after German Flash Manufacturing PMI came in at 52.0, versus an expected reading of 50.9, and EZ Flash Manufacturing PMI, which came in as anticipated at 49.7. Nevertheless, the Euro sold off after German ZEW Economic Sentiment came in at -37.6, significantly lower than the consensus of a -24.8 print. Also pressuring the rate was a comment from the Chinese People’s Bank adviser Xia who stated Chinese reserves should be used for resources and Euro debt be avoided.

Wednesday – The pair weakened after German Ifo Business Climate printed at 108.7, versus an expected print of 111.2. Also, EZ Industrial New Orders declined by -0.7% m/m versus an expected increase of +0.6%. In U.S. releases, Core Durable Goods Orders rose +0.7% m/m, notably better than the decline of -0.3% that was expected.

Thursday – The rate continued heading south making its weekly low of 1.4327 after news that the Greek central bank had begun its emergency liquidity assistance program. In economic releases, U.S. Initial Jobless Claims came out at 417K, versus 403K that was expected.

Friday – The pair traded sharply higher making its weekly high of 1.4507 after U.S. Preliminary GDP increased by only +1.0% q/q, just missing expectations of a +1.1% increase. Also, Fed Chair Ben Bernanke speaking at the annual Fed symposium at Jackson Hole dashed expectations of an additional stimulus package, but that the Fed was “prepared to employ its tools as appropriate to promote a stronger recovery.” EUR/USD went on to close at 1.4494, an increase of +0.7% from its previous weekly close.

JPY

USD/JPY rose marginally as Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan stepped down with a new PM to be selected on Monday.

Monday – The rate began the week on a soft note as the Greenback fell across the board and Japanese news services announced that Prime Minister Naoto Kan would step down.

Tuesday – The pair rose as asset flows favoured the Greenback over the Yen.

Wednesday – The rate continued trading higher making its weekly high of 77.69 after positive U.S. Durable Goods Orders and Japanese CSPI, which dropped by -0.5% y/y, versus an expected decline of -0.4%.

Thursday – The pair then dropped sharply making its weekly low of 76.47 after Prime Minister Naoto Kan confirmed to parliament he would step down as soon as the final two pieces of legislation of his agenda were passed.

Friday – The rate consolidated after trading mildly lower after Tokyo Core CPI declined by -0.2% y/y, versus an expected decline of -0.1%. Also, the United States announced lower than expected GDP data. USD/JPY went on to close at 76.67, showing a gain of +0.2% overall for the week.

GBP

GBP/USD lost ground last week as risk assets flowed out of Sterling and the UK reported mixed economic data.

Monday – Cable began the week dropping marginally after BOE MPC member Ben Broadbent stated in an interview that the UK economy had weakened considerably in the past 3-4 months.

Tuesday – The pair then rallied sharply making its weekly high of 1.6570 after UK BBA Mortgage Approvals came out at 33.4K versus 32.3K that was expected. Also, UK CBI Industrial Order Expectations came out at +1, significantly higher than the -13 consensus.

Wednesday – Cable then reversed and traded sharply lower after the BOE’s MPC member Weale made comments suggesting growth estimates for the UK economy might be too optimistic.

Thursday – The pair continued heading south as UK CBI Realized Sales came out at -14, considerably lower than the consensus of a -10 release. Also out was UK Nationwide Consumer Confidence, which came out at 49, versus a market consensus of a 46 print.

Friday – The rate then traded down to its weekly low of 1.6206 after UK Revised GDP came showing an increase of +0.2% q/q, as widely expected. Cable then rallied after a lower than expected U.S. GDP number. GBP/USD went on to close at 1.6347, a decline of -0.8% from its previous weekly close.

AUD

AUD/USD extended the previous week’s gains as comments from the RBA’s Glenn Stevens dashed expectations of a rate cut by the RBA in the near future.

Monday – The rate began the week rising marginally after making its weekly low of 1.0359 as risk assets flowed into the Australian Dollar after a rebound in global stock prices.

Tuesday – The Aussie rose sharply after the price of gold made a new all time high of $1.911.95 per ounce. The pair continued strong despite comments by RBA Deputy Governor Battellino in a speech made in Sydney stating that, "The divergence between the mining and non-mining sectors of the economy has increased and the mix of growth and inflation has turned out to be less favourable than expected a year ago."

Wednesday – The rate then reversed and traded lower as the price of gold corrected down to $1,702.91 per ounce and after the Australian CB Leading Index declined by -0.8% m/m, versus a previous reading of -0.1%. Also weighing on the Aussie was Australian Construction Work Done, which rose by only +0.7% q/q, versus an expected rise of +1.1%.

Thursday – The pair continued trading lower as traders squared positions ahead of RBA Governor Glenn Stevens semi-annual testimony before the Australian Parliament.

Friday – The rate then rallied sharply after comments from RBA Governor Stevens speaking at the House of Representatives Economics Committee, the Governor stated "If we are entering another period of weaker international conditions, this is a pretty good starting point from which to do so," Stevens comments to the committee dashed any hope of a rate cut anytime soon. AUD/USD went on to close at 1.0576, an increase of +1.6% from its previous weekly close.

CAD

USD/CAD extended the previous week’s losses as risk appetite returned to the market and the Greenback weakened against the commodity dollars.

Monday – The rate began the week consolidating after trading lower as risk assets traded higher early in the session.

Tuesday – The pair then traded lower after Canadian Retail Sales increased by +0.7% m/m, versus an expected increase of +0.6%, while Core Retail Sales declined by -0.1% m/m versus an expected increase of +0.3%.

Wednesday – The rate traded in a narrow range, declining marginally despite positive U.S. Durable Goods Orders.

Thursday – The pair then made its weekly low of 0.9790 before trading higher after Canadian Corporate Profits declined by -4.9% q/q, versus a previous reading of +4.2%

Friday – The rate then made its weekly high of 0.9922 after U.S. Preliminary GDP came out just missing expectations. The rate then dropped sharply after comments by the U.S. Fed’s Bernanke failed to affirm a third round of stimulus measures. USD/CAD went on to close the week at 0.9828, a decline of -0.6% for the week.

NZD

The Kiwi rallied sharply last week as a combination of asset flows and favourable economic data out of New Zealand pushed the rate up.

Monday – The pair began the week trading higher after making its weekly low of 0.8158 as the Greenback weakened against the commodity dollars.

Tuesday – The rate continued trading higher as New Zealand Inflation Expectations came out showing an increase of +2.9% q/q versus a previous reading of +3.0. Also out was the New Zealand Trade Balance, which came out showing a surplus of +129M, significantly wider than the deficit of -124M that was expected.

Wednesday – The pair traded lower despite New Zealand Core Retail Sales increasing by +1.0% q/q, versus an expected increase of only +0.7%, and NZ Retail Sales, which increased +0.9% q/q, versus an expected increase of +0.6%.

Thursday – The rate continued trading lower as the price of gold traded down to $1,702.91 per ounce. Friday – The rate then made its weekly high of 0.8415 after the U.S. announced a lower than expected Preliminary GDP number. NZD/USD went on to close at 0.8396, showing a gain of +2.6% from its previous weekly close.

The Week Ahead

AUD: This week’s Australian economic calendar is about as quiet as last week, and it will feature Retail Sales data due out Thursday. Sunday - Day Three of the Jackson Hole Symposium. Monday - HIA New Home Sales, tentative (last -8.7%). Tuesday - Building Approvals (2.1%). Wednesday - Private Sector Credit (0.2%). Thursday - AIG Manufacturing Index (last 43.4), Private Capital Expenditure (4.1%), Retail Sales (0.3%), and Commodity Prices (last 27.6%). Technical Overview – Initial resistance for AUD/USD is seen at 1.0590/99, 1.0653, 1.0693, and 1.0784. Above that, resistance shows at 1.0909, 1.1000, 1.1010/15 and 1.1064/79, with additional psychological resistance probable at 1.1500. Support for AUD/USD is indicated initially at 1.0532, 1.0479, 1.0415, 1.0357/60, 1.0313, 1.0244, 1.0203, 1.0169, 1.0110, 1.0090 and 1.0062 ahead of the key psychological 1.0000 parity level. Below that, support shows at 0.9925, 0.9803 and 0.9704.

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• AUD/USD

CAD: This week’s Canadian economic calendar is considerably less busy than the previous week, and it features the important GDP data due out Wednesday. Tuesday - Current Account (-13.6B), RMPI (0.0%), and IPPI (0.0%). Wednesday - GDP (0.2%). Technical Overview – The chart for USD/CAD shows initial resistance at 0.9825/39, 0.9908, 0.9917/25, 0.9937, 0.9953, 0.9967 and 0.9974/1.0057 around the key psychological 1.0000 level. Above that, resistance shows at 1.0008, 1.0030, 1.0057, 1.0088, 1.0139, 1.0208 and 1.0236. Initial support for the rate shows up at 0.9788/96, 0.9774, 0.9763, 0.9741/45, 0.9686, 0.9645, 0.9567 and 0.9526. Below that, support shows at 0.9496, 0.9448/56, 0.9422, 0.9405/09, and at the long term low of 0.9056 that lies just ahead of psychological support at 0.9000.

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• CAD/USD

EUR: This week’s Eurozone economic calendar is quieter than last week, and it will feature a speech by ECB President Trichet on Monday. Monday - German Preliminary CPI (0.0%), and ECB President Trichet speaks. Tuesday - Italian Retail Sales (0.2%). Wednesday - German Retail Sales (-1.5%), German Unemployment Change (-10K), Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate (8.1%), EZ CPI Flash Estimate (2.5%), EZ Unemployment Rate (9.9%), and Italian Preliminary CPI (0.3%). Thursday - German Final GDP (0.1%), and EZ Final Manufacturing PMI (49.7). Friday - EZ PPI (0.6%). Technical Overview – Resistance for EUR/USD is seen initially at 1.4499/1.4503, 1.4517, 1.4535, 1.4576, 1.4642/56 and 1.4695. Above that, resistance shows at 1.4881, 1.4939 and 1.5144. Support shows initially at 1.4474, 1.4452, 1.4434, 1.4347/54, 1.4324/28, 1.4271, 1.4258, 1.4211, 1.4142/49, 1.4122/29, 1.4054, 1.4013, and 1.4000, and then below that at 1.3836, 1.3703/23, 1.3524/45 and 1.3420/98.

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• EUR/USD

GBP: This week’s U.K. economic calendar is about as busy as last week, and it will feature the important Manufacturing and Construction PMI data due out on Friday. Monday - UK Bank Holiday. Tuesday - Net Lending to Individuals (1.1B), Preliminary Business Investment, postponed (last -3.2%), M4 Money Supply (0.4%), and Mortgage Approvals (49K). Wednesday - GfK Consumer Confidence (-32). Thursday - Nationwide HPI (0.1%), Halifax HPI (1st-8th) (0.5%), and Manufacturing PMI (49.2). Friday - Construction PMI (53.1). Technical Overview – Resistance to the topside for GBP/USD shows initially at 1.6361, 1.6396, 1.6434, 1.6519, 1.6532, 1.6542/98, 1.6616, and 1.6720/1.6744. Above that, resistance shows at 1.6876 and 1.7040. Support for the pair is indicated initially at 1.6254/59, 1.6223/27, 1.6206, 1.6174, 1.6165, 1.6117, 1.6109, 1.6067 and 1.6004 above the psychological 1.6000 level. Below that, support shows at 1.5990, 1.5972, in the 1.5910/30 region, at 1.5824, 1.5777 and 1.5750.

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• GBP/USD

JPY: This week’s Japanese economic calendar is considerably busier than last week, and it will feature Retail Sales data due out on Tuesday. Sunday - Day Three of the Jackson Hole Symposium. Tuesday - Household Spending (-2.9%), Unemployment Rate (4.6%), and Retail Sales (1.2%). Wednesday - Manufacturing PMI (last 52.1), Preliminary Industrial Production (1.6%), Average Cash Earnings (-0.4%), and Housing Starts (4.7%). Friday - Capital Spending (1.1%), and the Monetary Base (14.2%). Technical Overview – Resistance for USD/JPY currently shows up initially at 76.86, 76.92/95, 77.06, 77.19/29, 77.69, 77.78, 78.02, 78.66, 79.05, 79.40, 80.00 and 80.22. Above that, resistance shows at 80.82, 81.34, 81.76, 82.01/22, 82.77, 83.09 and 83.77. Initial support for the rate is seen at 76.28/58, 75.94 and at the psychological 75.00 and 70.00 levels.

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• JPY/USD

NZD: This week’s New Zealand economic calendar is about as active as last week, and it will feature the important Building Consents data due out on Tuesday. Sunday – Day Three of the Jackson Hole Symposium. Tuesday - Building Consents (last -1.4%). Wednesday - NBNZ Business Confidence (last 47.6). Thursday - Overseas Trade Index (0.6%), and ANZ Commodity Prices (last -0.1%). Technical Overview – The chart for NZD/USD shows initial resistance at 0.8408, 0.8417, 0.8423, 0.8464, 0.8540, 0.8575, 0.8676, 0.8764, 0.8793 and 0.8841, with psychological resistance probable above that at the 0.9000 and 0.9500 levels. Support shows up initially at 0.8365, 0.8287, 0.8270, 0.8252, 0.8212, 0.8175, 0.8158, 0.8150, 0.8126, 0.8109, 0.8060/93 and 0.8007/44 above the psychological 0.8000 level. Below that, support shows at 0.7971, 0.7962, 0.7950, 0.7816 and 0.7754.

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• NZD/USD

USD: This week’s U.S. economic calendar is busier than last week, and it will feature the key Non Farm Payrolls data due out on Friday. Monday - Core PCE Price Index (0.2%), Personal Spending (0.5%), Personal Income (0.3%), and Pending Home Sales (-0.8%). Tuesday - S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI (-4.7%), CB Consumer Confidence (52.2), FOMC Member Kocherlakota speaks, and the FOMC Meeting Minutes. Wednesday - Challenger Job Cuts (last 59.4%), ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (103K), Chicago PMI (54.8), and Crude Oil Inventories (last -2.2M). Thursday - Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (409K), Revised Nonfarm Productivity (-0.4%), Revised Unit Labor Costs (2.3%), ISM Manufacturing PMI (48.9), Construction Spending (0.2%), ISM Manufacturing Prices (55.1), Natural Gas Storage (last 73B), Total Vehicle Sales (12.1M), and FOMC Member Duke speaks. Friday - Non-Farm Payrolls (90K), Unemployment Rate (9.1%), and Average Hourly Earnings (0.2%).

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EUR



EUR/USD gained last week as both the Eurozone and the United States released mixed economic data and despite a failed attempt from France and Germany to end the European financial crisis.

Monday – The common currency began the week trading sharply higher after making its weekly low of 1.4218, as the U.S. Empire State Manufacturing Index declined to -7.7, significantly below the consensus of a +0.5 print. Also weighing heavily on the Greenback were TIC Long Term Purchases, which came out at a disappointing 3.7B, considerably lower than the consensus of 30.4B that was expected.

Tuesday – The rate weakened after Fitch’s affirmed its AAA rating on U.S. debt. Also, German Preliminary GDP came out showing an increase of only +0.1% q/q, missing expectations of a +0.5% increase, while EZ Flash GDP also missed expectations rising +0.2% q/q, versus an expected rise of +0.3%. Also out was the EZ Trade Balance showing a deficit of -1.6B, versus an expected surplus of +0.3B. In U.S. numbers, Building Permits and Housing Starts both increased by +0.60M as was widely expected.

Wednesday – The pair made its weekly high of 1.4516 before selling off after a meeting between French President Sarkozy and German Chancellor Merkel failed to come up with a viable solution to the financial crisis. In economic releases, the EZ Current Account showed a deficit of -7.4B, considerably wider than the consensus of -3.6B that was expected. Also out was EZ Core CPI, which came out at +1.2% y/y, missing the consensus of a +1.7% increase, while EZ CPI came out at +2.5% as widely anticipated. In U.S. releases PPI increased by +0.2% m/m versus an expected flat reading.

Thursday – The rate headed south after major European bank stocks got pummelled on rumours an unidentified bank had obtained a 500M emergency loan from the ECB. The rumour later turned out to be true, with the ECB extending the loan at above market rates from its 7-day program to provide liquidity. Economic releases had U.S. Core CPI increasing by +0.2% m/m as widely expected and Initial Jobless Claims increasing to 408K versus 402K that was expected. Also out was the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, which came out at an impressive -30.7, showing the lowest level of manufacturing activity since March of 2009 and significantly lower than the +4.0 print that was expected.

Friday – The pair traded higher as European Union Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs stated that the EU Commission “has offered to present a report to the European Parliament and the Council on the setting up of a system of common issuance of European sovereign bonds under joint and several liability.” Economic releases had German PPI increasing by +0.7% m/m, versus an expected increase of +0.2%. EUR/USD went on to close at 1.4394, an increase of +1.0% from its previous weekly close.

JPY

USD/JPY made a new all-time low as the threat of BOJ intervention waned and global asset flows favoured the Japanese Yen over the U.S. Dollar in a risk averse market.

Monday – The rate began the week trading moderately lower after making its weekly high of 78.08 as Japanese Preliminary GDP declined by only -0.3% q/q, versus a consensus of a -0.6% decline. Also out was the Japanese Preliminary GDP Price Index, which declined by -2.2% y/y, versus an expected decline of -1.7%.

Tuesday – The pair consolidated as the United States reported stable Housing numbers and in the absence of any significant data out of Japan.

Wednesday – The rate traded lower as the United States reported higher PPI numbers and intervention by the BOJ did not materialize.

Thursday – The pair consolidated after trading in a narrow range as the Japanese Trade Balance showed a deficit of -0.13T, in line with expectations.

Friday – The rate then made a new all time and its weekly low of 75.93 after Japan’s Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs, Takehiko Nakao stated in an interview that Japanese authorities do not plan to intervene often in the currency market. USD/JPY then rallied on short covering to close at 76.48, showing a decline of -0.4% for the week.

GBP

GBP/USD rallied as safe haven asset flows favoured Sterling with investors buying UK bonds and despite the prospect the BOE will leave rates unchanged. Monday – Cable began the week making its weekly low of 1.6254 after the UK Rightmove HPI declined by -2.1% m/m, versus a previous reading of -1.6%. The rate then rallied sharply after the United States came out with a dismal Empire State Manufacturing Index and TIC Long Term Purchases numbers.

Tuesday – The pair continued higher after UK CPI increased by +4.4%, versus an expected increase of +4.3%. Also out was the UK Inflation Letter, which stated that “growth is likely to remain sluggish in the near term, reflecting the continuing squeeze on households’ real incomes.”

Wednesday – Cable continued soaring as the MPC Meeting Minutes showed a unanimous vote to hold rates steady, versus a consensus of two members against. Also, UK Average Earnings Index rose by +2.6% 3m/y versus +2.3% that was expected, and UK Claimant Count Change showed 37.1K new claimants, versus an expected 20.1K.

Thursday – The pair dropped sharply as UK Retail Sales missed expectations increasing by only +0.2% m/m, versus an expected increase of +0.3%.

Friday – Cable then traded up to its weekly high of 1.6616 after UK Public Sector Borrowing declined by -2.0B versus an expected increase of +0.4B. GBP/USD went on to close at 1.6474, an increase of +1.2% from its previous weekly close.

AUD

AUD/USD rose last week as risk sentiments in the market and new record highs in the price of gold supported the Aussie.

Monday – The rate began the week rising sharply after Australian New Motor Vehicle Sales increased by +8.6% m/m, versus a previous reading of +1.3% revised upwards to +1.9%.

Tuesday – The rate consolidated after trading lower as the RBA released its Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes and stated it would not rule out rate cuts, the minutes also stated that "The case against tightening at this meeting was that the downside risks to demand had probably increased, as a result of the acute uncertainty in global financial markets,”.

Wednesday – The rate then reversed and made its weekly high of 1.0599 after the Australian MI Leading Index increased by +0.1% m/m, versus a previous reading of -0.1%. Also out was the Australian Wage Price Index, which gained +0.9% q/q as was widely anticipated.

Thursday – The pair reversed direction yet again trading lower as risk aversion hit the market hard on rumours the ECB was making loans to troubled banks.

Friday – The rate then rose after making its weekly low of 1.0313 as risk assets recovered and gold made a new all time high of 1,877.28. AUD/USD went on to close at 1.0402, an increase of +0.5% for the week.

CAD

USD/CAD dropped marginally after a volatile week saw weaker Canadian economic numbers on balance and lower prices for crude oil.

Monday – The rate began the week trading sharply lower after Canadian New Motor Vehicle Sales increase by +10.8% m/m, considerably higher than the increase of only +2.4% that was expected.

Tuesday – The pair reversed and traded higher after Fitch’s ratings reiterated the United States AAA debt rating. Also supporting the rate was Canadian Manufacturing Sales, which declined by -1.5% m/m, significantly lower than the -0.3% decrease that was expected.

Wednesday – The rate made its weekly low of 0.9774 as risk appetite increased in the markets and despite Canadian Foreign Securities Purchases declining by -3.46B, significantly lower than the increase of +10.33B that was expected.

Thursday – The pair then made its weekly high of 0.9937 after Canadian Wholesale Sales came out at +0.2% as widely expected, while the Canadian Leading Index increased by +0.2%, just missing the consensus of a +0.3% increase.

Friday – The rate then declined after Canadian Core CPI and CPI both came out with an increase of +0.2% m/m, as widely expected. USD/CAD went on to close at 0.9883, a loss of -0.2% for the week.

NZD

The Kiwi extended the previous week’s losses as risk assets continued under pressure and with very little in the way of economic releases out of New Zealand.

Monday – The pair began the week trading marginally higher as the United States reported dismal TIC Long Term Purchases and Empire State Manufacturing Index numbers.

Tuesday – The rate continued trading higher despite Fitch’s ratings assuring U.S. debt would retain its AAA rating.

Wednesday – The pair made its weekly high of 0.8423 as risk appetite increased and despite positive U.S. PPI numbers.

Thursday – The rate then reversed direction trading sharply lower as rumours the ECB was lending to troubled banks increased risk aversion.

Friday – The rate then made its weekly low of 0.8170 despite New Zealand Visitor Arrivals increasing by +2.0 m/m, versus a previous decline of -4.4%, and NZ Credit Card Spending, which increased by +7.3% y/y, versus a previous reading of +4.6%. NZD/USD went on to close the week at 0.8178 showing an overall decline of -1.8%.

The Week Ahead

AUD: This week’s Australian economic calendar is about as quiet as last week, and it will feature a speech by RBA Gov Stevens on Friday. Tuesday - RBA Deputy Governor Battellino speaks. Wednesday - CB Leading Index (last -0.1%), and Construction Work Done (1.1%). Friday - Day one of the Jackson Hole Symposium, and RBA Governor Stevens speaks. Saturday - Day two of the Jackson Hole Symposium. Technical Overview – Initial resistance for AUD/USD is seen at 1.0404, 1.0411, 1.0479, 1.0511, 1.0525, 1.0559, 1.0599, 1.0653, 1.0693, and 1.0784. Above that, resistance shows at 1.0909, 1.1000, 1.1010/15 and 1.1064/79, with additional psychological resistance probable at 1.1500. Support for AUD/USD is indicated initially at 1.0357, 1.0314, 1.0244, 1.0203, 1.0169, 1.0110, 1.0090 and 1.0062 ahead of the key psychological 1.0000 parity level. Below that, support shows at 0.9925, 0.9803 and 0.9704.

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• AUD/USD

CAD: This week’s Canadian economic calendar is a bit less busy than the previous week, and it features the important Core Retail Sales data due out on Tuesday. Tuesday - Core Retail Sales (0.4%), Retail Sales (0.6%), and Governing Council Member Boivin speaks. Wednesday - Governing Council Member Macklem speaks. Thursday - Corporate Profits (4.2%), and Day one of the Jackson Hole Symposium. Friday - Day two of the Jackson Hole Symposium. Saturday - Day three of the Jackson Hole Symposium. Technical Overview – The chart for USD/CAD shows initial resistance at 0.9925, 0.9937, 0.9953, 0.9967 and 0.9974/1.0057 around the key psychological 1.0000 level. Above that, resistance shows at 1.0008, 1.0030, 1.0057, 1.0088, 1.0139, 1.0208 and 1.0236. Initial support for the rate shows up at 0.9871, 0.9850, 0.9832, 0.9790/93, 0.9774, 0.9763, 0.9741/45, 0.9686, 0.9645, 0.9567 and 0.9526. Below that, support shows at 0.9496, 0.9448/56, 0.9422, 0.9405/09, and at the long term low of 0.9056 that lies just ahead of psychological support at 0.9000.

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• CAD/USD

EUR: This week’s Eurozone economic calendar is considerably busier than last week, and it will feature the German ZEW Economic Sentiment survey due out on Tuesday. Tuesday - French Flash Manufacturing PMI (50.4), French Flash Services PMI (53.1), German Flash Manufacturing PMI (51.2), German Flash Services PMI (52.1), Flash Manufacturing PMI (49.7), Flash Services PMI (51.1), German ZEW Economic Sentiment (-24.6), EZ ZEW Economic Sentiment (-6.2), and EZ Consumer Confidence (-12). Wednesday - German Ifo Business Climate (111.3), Industrial New Orders (0.6%), and Belgium NBB Business Climate (-3.1). Thursday - GfK German Consumer Climate (5.2), and Day one of the Jackson Hole Symposium Friday - German Import Prices (0.3%), M3 Money Supply (2.2%), Private Loans (2.6%), and Day two of the Jackson Hole Symposium. Saturday - Day three of the Jackson Hole Symposium, and ECB President Trichet speaks. Technical Overview – Resistance for EUR/USD is seen initially at 1.4400, 1.4425, 1.4452, 1.4476, 1.4517, 1.4535, 1.4576, 1.4642/56 and 1.4695. Above that, resistance shows at 1.4881, 1.4939 and 1.5144. Support shows initially at 1.4354, 1.4324, 1.4271, 1.4258, 1.4211, 1.4142/49, 1.4122/29, 1.4054, 1.4013, and 1.4000, and then below that at 1.3836, 1.3703/23, 1.3524/45 and 1.3420/98.

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• EUR/USD

GBP: This week’s U.K. economic calendar is about as busy as last week, and it will feature the important Revised GDP data due out Friday. Tuesday - BBA Mortgage Approvals (32.3K), CBI Industrial Order Expectations (-13), and MPC Member Weale speaks. Thursday - Nationwide Consumer Confidence (46), CBI Realized Sales (-10), and Day one of the Jackson Hole Symposium. Friday - Revised GDP (0.2%), Preliminary Business Investment (-3.2%), Index of Services (0.6%), and Day two of the Jackson Hole Symposium. Saturday - Day three of the Jackson Hole Symposium. Technical Overview – Resistance to the topside for GBP/USD shows initially at 1.6542/98, 1.6616, and 1.6720/1.6744. Above that, resistance shows at 1.6876 and 1.7040. Support for the pair is indicated initially at 1.6442, 1.6419, 1.6408, 1.6322, 1.6311, 1.6223/27, 1.6174, 1.6165, 1.6117, 1.6109, 1.6067 and 1.6004 above the psychological 1.6000 level. Below that, support shows at 1.5990, 1.5972, in the 1.5910/30 region, at 1.5824, 1.5777 and 1.5750.

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• GBP/USD

JPY: This week’s Japanese economic calendar is about as quiet as last week, and it will feature Tokyo Core CPI data due out on Friday. Wednesday - CSPI (-0.4%). Friday - Day one of the Jackson Hole Symposium, Tokyo Core CPI (-0.1%), and National Core CPI (-0.1%). Saturday - Day two of the Jackson Hole Symposium. Technical Overview – Resistance for USD/JPY currently shows up initially at 76.92/95, 77.21/29, 77.78, 78.02, 78.66, 79.05, 79.40, 80.00 and 80.22. Above that, resistance shows at 80.82, 81.34, 81.76, 82.01/22, 82.77, 83.09 and 83.77. Initial support for the rate is seen at 76.50/58, 76.34/41, 76.28, 75.94 and at the psychological 75.00 and 70.00 levels.

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• JPY/USD

NZD: This week’s New Zealand economic calendar is a bit busier than last week, and it will feature the important Inflation Expectations data due out on Tuesday. Tuesday - Inflation Expectations (last 3.0%). Wednesday - Trade Balance (-99M). Thursday - Core Retail Sales (0.7%), Retail Sales (0.6%), and FPI (last 1.4%). Friday - Day one of the Jackson Hole Symposium. Saturday - Day two of the Jackson Hole Symposium. Technical Overview – The chart for NZD/USD shows initial resistance at 0.8263, 0.8270, 0.8287, 0.8327, 0.8341, 0.8381/88, 0.8408, 0.8423, 0.8464, 0.8540, 0.8575, 0.8676, 0.8764, 0.8793 and 0.8841, with psychological resistance probable above that at the 0.9000 and 0.9500 levels. Support shows up initially at 0.8150, 0.8126, 0.8109, 0.8060/93 and 0.8007/44 above the psychological 0.8000 level. Below that, support shows at 0.7971, 0.7962, 0.7950, 0.7816 and 0.7754.

To view a live chart follow the link:

• NZD/USD

USD: This week’s U.S. economic calendar is somewhat less busy than last week, and it will feature the important Preliminary GDP data due out on Friday. Monday - Mortgage Delinquencies (8.32%). Tuesday - New Home Sales (316K), and the Richmond Manufacturing Index (-7). Wednesday - Core Durable Goods Orders (-0.2%), Durable Goods Orders (2.1%), OFHEO HPI (0.2%), and Crude Oil Inventories (last 4.2M). Thursday – Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (402K), Natural Gas Storage (last 50B), and Day one of the Jackson Hole Symposium. Friday - Preliminary GDP (1.1%), Preliminary GDP Price Index (last 2.3%), Revised Universtiy of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (56.3), Revised University of Michigan Inflation Expectations (last 3.4%), Fed Chairman Bernanke speaks, and Day two of the Jackson Hole Symposium. Saturday - Day three of the Jackson Hole Symposium.

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EUR

EUR/USD extended the previous week’s losses as the European financial crisis compelled the ECB to intervene in the Italian and Spanish debt markets.

Monday – The common currency began the week trading lower after a gap opening making its weekly high of 1.4425 reacting to the U.S. debt downgrade by S&P announced late Friday. The rate then sold off sharply on weak global equity markets and after news the ECB was intervening buying Spanish and Italian bonds.

Tuesday – The rate traded lower most of the session before rallying sharply after the U.S. Fed left the benchmark Fed Funds rate at <0.25% and stated it would leave rates at historically low levels until at least 2013.

Wednesday – The pair then erased all of the previous day’s gains after French Industrial Production dropped by -1.6% m/m, versus an expected decline of only -0.1%. Rumours surfaced that France’s credit rating has been considered for a possible downgrade by a large ratings agency.

Thursday – The rate made its weekly low of 1.4103 before reversing and trading higher as fears of contagion receded and the U.S. Trade Balance came in at a -53.1B deficit, versus a deficit of -47.9B that was expected.

Friday – The pair then consolidated after sliding initially after French Preliminary GDP came out with a flat reading q/q, versus an expected increase of +0.3%. Also, French Industrial Production declined by -0.7%, versus an expected increase of +0.1%. In U.S. releases, Core Retail Sales increased by +0.5% m/m, versus a rise of +0.2% that was expected, and Retail Sales rose +0.5% , versus a +0.4% consensus. The Euro rallied after news that short selling of stocks would be banned in France, Spain, Italy and Belgium. EUR/USD went on to close at 1.4249, showing an overall loss of -0.2% from its previous weekly close.

JPY

USD/JPY dropped sharply last week as trader sentiment and asset flows continue to favour the Japanese Yen over the U.S. Dollar.

Monday – The rate began the week trading lower after making its weekly high of 78.45, despite Minister of Finance Yoshihiko Noda’s warning of further intervention measures stated to other G7 Finance Ministers. Economic data had Japanese Bank Lending decline by -0.5% y/y, and the Japanese Current Account, which showed a surplus of +0.92T, versus an expected surplus of +0.96T.

Tuesday – The pair continued sharply lower as massive risk aversion hit the forex favouring the Yen over the Greenback. Also, the BOJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes showed that, "Many members said it was appropriate to steadily continue with the BOJ''s asset purchases and examine the impact of the move." Also, the FOMC statement on U.S. interest rates contributed to the drop.

Wednesday – The rate continued trading lower as Japanese Tertiary Industry Activity increased by +1.9% m/m, significantly higher than the +1.1% increase that was expected, also out was Japanese CGPI, increasing by +2.9% y/y versus a consensus of a +2.6% increase.

Thursday – The pair made its weekly low of 76.30, just above the historical low of 76.25 made after the March earthquake. MOF Noda told lawmakers in Parliament that he may take action to protect the Yen from falling below the 76.25 level. In economic data, Japanese Core Machinery Orders showed an increase of +7.7% m/m, notably higher than the increase of only +1.9% that was expected, while the U.S. reported a wider than expected Trade Deficit.

Friday – The rate then consolidated after positive U.S. Retail Sales and Japanese Revised Industrial Production rising +3.8% m/m, just missing the consensus of a +3.9% increase. USD/JPY went on to close the week at 76.80, showing an overall loss of -2.2%.

GBP

GBP/USD extended last week’s losses as the BOE revised its economic forecasts for the UK economy lower citing global economic conditions. Monday – Sterling gapped higher making its weekly high of 1.6488, reflecting the news of the U.S. debt downgrade made late Friday by S&P. Cable then reversed and traded sharply lower as rumours of a UK debt downgrade and risk aversion took hold in the market.

Tuesday – The rate then traded in a wide range ending the session unchanged. Economic releases had the UK BRC Retail Sales Monitor increasing by +0.6% y/y as widely expected, while UK Manufacturing Production declined by -0.4% m/m, significantly lower than the increase of +0.3% that was expected. Also out was the UK Trade Balance, showing a deficit of -8.9B, versus an expected deficit of -8.2B.

Wednesday – Cable dropped sharply after the BOE’s Inflation Report downwardly revised growth estimates for the UK economy and stated the BOE did not see rates rising until probably 2013. Q4 GDP growth was cut from 2.47% to 2.0%.

Thursday – The pair made its weekly low of 1.6109 before reversing and trading sharply higher after a negative U.S. Trade Balance report.

Friday – The rate continued trading higher as traders squared positions and despite positive U.S. economic numbers. GBP/USD went on to close at 1.6276, losing -0.7% overall on the week.

AUD

AUD/USD continued the previous week’s sharp decline as massive risk aversion and weaker Australian economic data took the Aussie briefly under parity.

Monday – The rate began the week making its weekly high of 1.0444 after news of the U.S. downgrade by S&P was absorbed by the market. The rate then turned south after Australian ANZ Job Advertisements came out showing a -0.7% decline m/m, versus a previous reading of an increase of +3.8.

Tuesday – The Aussie continued dropping for the ninth day in a row making its weekly and a 5 month low of 0.9925 as risk aversion, falling commodities and gloomy outlooks for the European and U.S. economy took their toll; the rate then reversed and traded sharply higher ending at 1.0349. In economic releases, Australian Home Loans came out with a flat reading versus an expected increase of +0.7%, while the NAB Business Confidence survey came out with a reading of +2, versus a previous reading of 0.

Wednesday – The rate then reversed and headed south once more, erasing the previous day’s gains after the Westpac Consumer Sentiment survey came out at -3.5% versus a previous reading of -8.3%.

Thursday – The pair reversed direction yet again and traded higher as Australian MI Inflation Expectations came out at 2.7%, versus a previous reading of 3.4%, and the United States reported a weaker Trade Balance.

Friday – The rate finally consolidated after a gruelling week of volatility. AUD/USD went on to close at 1.0350, showing an overall loss of -1.1% from its previous weekly close.

CAD

USD/CAD extended the previous week’s gains as the commodity dollars were hit hard with risk aversion and falling commodity prices.

Monday – The rate began the week trading sharply higher after S&P downgraded the United States credit rating sparking risk aversion in the forex market.

Tuesday – The pair continued trading higher making its weekly high of 1.0008 before trading sharply lower after the U.S. Fed left rates unchanged and stated rates would be kept at historical lows until 2013. Economic releases had Canadian Housing Starts increase by +205K, versus an expected increase of +194K.

Wednesday – The rate then reversed after making its weekly low of 0.9763 and traded sharply higher as commodity prices tumbled and asset flows favoured the U.S. Dollar.

Thursday – The pair then sold off after the price of gold made a new all time high of $1,814.80 and despite the Canadian Trade Balance showing a -1.6B deficit, versus a consensus of -0.9B.

Friday – The rate then recovered as traders covered their shorts C 0.8322 PC 0.8433 H 0.8427 Monday L 0.7962 Tuesday, trading up to close the week at 0.9905, gaining +1.3%.

NZD

The Kiwi continued losing ground against the Greenback last week as risk aversion and weaker commodities weighed heavily on the commodity currencies. Monday – The pair began the week trading lower after making its weekly high of 0.8427 as the U.S. debt downgrade by S&P sparked risk aversion in the forex.

Tuesday – The pair then reversed and traded sharply higher after making its weekly low of 0.7962 after the U.S. Fed left rates unchanged and announced it would leave rates at historical lows through 2013.

Wednesday – The pair reversed direction again, trading lower after the New Zealand REINZ HPI declined by -0.6% m/m, versus a previous reading of +1.3%.

Thursday – The rate reversed direction once more, trading higher after the U.S. Trade Balance showed a wider than expected deficit.

Friday – The Kiwi then consolidated on position squaring, bringing NZD/USD to close at 0.8322, a loss of -1.3% overall from its previous weekly close.

The Week Ahead

AUD: This week’s Australian economic calendar is quieter than last week, and it will feature the key Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes due out on Tuesday. Monday - New Motor Vehicle Sales (last 1.3%). Tuesday – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes. Wednesday - MI Leading Index (last -0.1%), and the Wage Price Index (0.9%). Technical Overview – Initial resistance for AUD/USD is seen at 1.0360, 1.0411, 1.0525, 1.0559, 1.0653, 1.0693, and 1.0784. Above that, resistance shows at 1.0909, 1.1000, 1.1010/15 and 1.1064/79, with additional psychological resistance probable at 1.1500. Support for AUD/USD is indicated initially at 1.0244, 1.0203, 1.0169, 1.0110, 1.0090 and 1.0062 ahead of the key psychological 1.0000 parity level. Below that, support shows at 0.9925, 0.9803 and 0.9704.

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• AUD/USD

CAD: This week’s Canadian economic calendar is busier than the previous week, and it features the important CPI data due out on Friday. Monday - New Motor Vehicle Sales (2.4%). Tuesday - Manufacturing Sales (-0.3%). Wednesday - Foreign Securities Purchases (10.33B). Thursday - Leading Index (0.5%), Wholesale Sales (1.5%), and the BOC Review. Friday - Core CPI (0.2%), CPI (0.2%). Technical Overview – The chart for USD/CAD shows initial resistance at 0.9917, 0.9953, 0.9967 and 0.9974/1.0057 around the key psychological 1.0000 level. Above that, resistance shows at 1.0008, 1.0030, 1.0057, 1.0088, 1.0139, 1.0208 and 1.0236. Initial support for the rate shows up at 0.9850, 0.9832, 0.9793, 0.9763, 0.9741/45, 0.9686, 0.9645, 0.9567 and 0.9526. Below that, support shows at 0.9496, 0.9448/56, 0.9422, 0.9405/09, and at the long term low of 0.9056 that lies just ahead of psychological support at 0.9000.

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• CAD/USD

EUR: This week’s Eurozone economic calendar is quieter than last week, and it will feature the German Preliminary CPI data due out on Tuesday. Monday - French and Italian Bank Holidays. Tuesday - German Preliminary GDP (0.5%), Flash GDP (0.3%), and EZ Trade Balance (0.3B). Wednesday – EZ Current Account (-3.6B), EZ CPI (2.5%), and EZ Core CPI (1.7%). Friday - German PPI (0.2%). Technical Overview – Resistance for EUR/USD is seen initially at 1.4291/97, 1.4370, 1.4400, 1.4425, 1.4453, 1.4535, 1.4576, 1.4642/56 and 1.4695. Above that, resistance shows at 1.4881, 1.4939 and 1.5144. Support shows initially at 1.4211, 1.4142/49, 1.4122/29, 1.4054, 1.4013, and 1.4000, and then below that at 1.3836, 1.3703/23, 1.3524/45 and 1.3420/98.

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• EUR/USD

GBP: This week’s U.K. economic calendar is a bit busier than last week, and it will feature the important Claimant Count Change due out Wednesday. Monday - Rightmove HPI Tuesday - Nationwide Consumer Confidence (last 51), CPI (4.3%), Core CPI (3.1%), RPI (5.0%), DCLG HPI (0.9%), and the BOE Inflation Letter (tentative). Wednesday - Claimant Count Change (20.2K), MPC Meeting Minutes (2-0-7), Average Earnings Index (2.3%), and the Unemployment Rate (7.7%). Thursday - Retail Sales (0.3%). Friday - Public Sector Net Borrowing (0.4B). Technical Overview – Resistance to the topside for GBP/USD shows initially at 1.6311, 1.6395, 1.6409, 1.6437, and 1.6473/74. Above that resistance shows at 1.6542/98, 1.6720/1.6744, 1.6876 and 1.7040. Support for the pair is indicated initially at 1.6223/27, 1.6174, 1.6165, 1.6117, 1.6109, 1.6067 and 1.6004 above the psychological 1.6000 level. Below that, support shows at 1.5990, 1.5972, in the 1.5910/30 region, at 1.5824, 1.5777 and 1.5750.

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• GBP/USD

JPY: This week’s Japanese economic calendar is quieter than last week, and it will feature Preliminary GDP data due out on Tuesday. Monday - Preliminary GDP (-0.6%), and Preliminary GDP Price Index (-1.7%). Thursday - Trade Balance (-0.12T). Friday - All Industries Activity (2.3%). Technical Overview – Resistance for USD/JPY currently shows up initially at 77.01, 77.21/29, 77.78, 78.02, 78.66, 79.05, 79.40, 80.00 and 80.22. Above that, resistance shows at 80.82, 81.34, 81.76, 82.01/22, 82.77, 83.09 and 83.77. Initial support for the rate is seen at 76.50, 76.34/41, 76.28, and at the psychological 75.00 and 70.00 levels.

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• JPY/USD

NZD: This week’s New Zealand economic calendar is about as quiet as last week, and it will feature the important PPI data due out on Wednesday. Wednesday - PPI Input (1.2%) and PPI Output (0.8%). Friday - Visitor Arrivals (last -5.1%), and Credit Card Spending (last 4.5%). Technical Overview – The chart for NZD/USD shows initial resistance at 0.8341, 0.8381, 0.8408, 0.8464, 0.8540, 0.8575, 0.8676, 0.8764, 0.8793 and 0.8841, with psychological resistance probable above that at the 0.9000 and 0.9500 levels. Support shows up initially at 0.8273, 0.8179, 0.8150, 0.8126, 0.8109, 0.8060/93 and 0.8007/44 above the psychological 0.8000 level. Below that, support shows at 0.7971, 0.7962, 0.7950, 0.7816 and 0.7754.

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• NZD/USD

USD: This week’s U.S. economic calendar is a bit busier than last week, and it will feature the important PPI and CPI inflation data due out on Wednesday and Thursday. Monday - Empire State Manufacturing Index (0.8), TIC Long-Term Purchases (30.4B), and the NAHB Housing Market Index (15). Tuesday - Building Permits (0.61M), Import Prices (0.0%), Capacity Utilization Rate (77.0%), Industrial Production (0.5%), and the Loan Officer Survey (tentative). Wednesday - PPI (0.0%), Core PPI (0.2%), and Crude Oil Inventories (last -5.2M). Thursday - Core CPI (0.2%), CPI (0.2%), Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (403K), FOMC Member Dudley speaks, Existing Home Sales (4.92M), CB Leading Index (0.2%), and Natural Gas Storage (last 25B). Friday - FOMC Member Dudley speaks.

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EUR

EUR/USD ended lower last week as persistent debt problems, now with Italy and Spain continue weighing heavily on the rate.

Monday – The pair began the week trading sharply lower after making its weekly high of 1.4452 as fears of contagion of the Greek crisis to other Euro economies resurfaced. Economic numbers had U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI come out at a dismal 50.9, versus an expected print of 55.0. Also Eurozone Unemployment remained steady at 9.9%.

Tuesday – The rate continued its descent as the U.S. House passed the debt ceiling bill by 269-161. The Euro weakened in large part due to rising bond yields for Spanish and Italian bonds, which reflected investor concerns the Greek bailout would be insufficient to prevent contagion.

Wednesday – The pair then rebounded after positive economic news out of the Eurozone. EZ Final Services PMI came out at 51.6, edging the consensus of a 51.4 release, and EZ Retail Sales gained by +0.9% m/m, versus an expected increase of +0.5%. In U.S. numbers, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change showed +114K new jobs were created last month, versus 101k that was expected.

Thursday – The rate dropped sharply after the ECB left the benchmark Minimum Bid Rate unchanged at 1.50%. ECB President Trichet stated he would be “monitoring very closely” the situation with Italy and Spain, whose bond yields had climbed above 6%, and that the ECB would begin Long Term Refinancing Operations or LTRO to deal with extreme market conditions. Economic releases had German Factory Orders increase by +1.8% m/m, considerably higher than the -0.4% market consensus, and U.S. Initial Jobless Claims which showed 400K, in line with expectations.

Friday – The rate then made its weekly low of 1.4064 before rallying sharply as concerns over a downgrade to U.S. debt weighed heavily on the Greenback. The rate strengthened despite a positive U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls number which showed the U.S. economy added +117K jobs, versus an expected 89K consensus. Also, the U.S. Unemployment Rate dropped to 9.1%. After Friday’s New York close, S&P went ahead and lowered the U.S. debt rating to AA+ from AAA. The ratings agency stated that, “We lowered our long-term rating on the U.S. because we believe that the prolonged controversy over raising the statutory debt ceiling and the related fiscal policy debate indicate that further near-term progress containing the growth in public spending, especially on entitlements, or on reaching an agreement on raising revenues is less likely than we previously assumed and will remain a contentious and fitful process…” EUR/USD went on to close at 1.4280 showing an overall loss of 0.6% from its previous weekly close.

JPY

USD/JPY rose last week despite the Japanese Ministry of Finance intervening in the currency markets late in the week to bring down the Japanese currency.

Monday – The rate began the week trading higher after making a new 4 month low of 0.7628 as the United States got closer to resolving the debt ceiling debacle.

Tuesday – The pair traded in a narrow range as traders were wary of BOJ Intervention. In a statement to the Japanese Parliament, Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda said that, “The yen is being valued stronger than we think ... I''d like to watch currency market conditions especially carefully today,". Japanese releases had the Monetary Base increase by +15.0% y/y versus an expected increase of +18.1%, and Average Cash Earnings, which dropped by -0.8% y/y, versus an expected increase of +0.4%.

Wednesday – The rate continued trading in a narrow range, losing some ground despite a favourable U.S. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change number. Concerns over a U.S. debt downgrade continued weighing on the Greenback.

Thursday – The pair gained over 4%, rising to its weekly high of 80.22 as the BOJ on behalf of the Japanese Ministry of Finance intervened in the markets selling the Yen against the U.S. Dollar at least three times in the session. In addition to intervening to the tune of ¥1 trillion, the BOJ also raised its asset purchases to ¥50 trillion from ¥40 trillion.

Friday – The rate then retreated as traders began selling the Greenback again despite the spectre of further BOJ intervention. The prospect for effective intervention by the BOJ on its own without outside support did not appear to be enough for the rate to sustain its gains. USD/JPY went on to close at 0.7846, a gain of +1.6% for the week.

GBP

GBP/USD dropped marginally last week as the BOE left rates unchanged and the UK reported mixed to weaker economic numbers.

Monday – Sterling began the week trading sharply lower after making its weekly high of 1.6473 as UK Manufacturing PMI came in at 49.1, breaching the important 50 level and significantly lower than the consensus of a 51.1 print.

Tuesday – Cable then consolidated after making its weekly low of 1.6223 as UK Construction PMI came in at 53.5, edging the consensus of a 53.2 print.

Wednesday – The rate shot up after UK Services PMI came out at 55.4, significantly higher than the consensus of a 53.3 print and despite a favourable U.S. ADP Non Farm Employment Change number.

Thursday – Cable then took a dive after the BOE left the benchmark Official Bank Rate unchanged at 0.50% and the Asset Purchase Facility at 200B.

Friday – The rate then traded higher despite a favourable U.S. Non Farm Payrolls number and after the UK Halifax HPI increased by +0.3% m/m, versus an expected increase of only +0.1%, with the previous number upwardly revised to +1.5% from +1.2%. Also out was PPI Input which came out at +0.6% as was widely expected. GBP/USD went on to close at 1.6388, showing an overall loss of -22 pips or -0.1% from its previous weekly close.

AUD

AUD/USD lost considerable ground last week as the RBA left rates unchanged and risk assets sold off sharply due to dropping commodity prices and a flight to quality in the forex market.

Monday – The pair began the week trading lower after making its weekly high of 1.1064 as Australia reported weaker HIA New Home Sales, which dropped by -8.7% m/m, considerably lower than the previous release of -0.2%.

Tuesday – The Aussie continued dropping sharply as the RBA left its benchmark Cash Rate unchanged at 4.75% as widely expected. In the rate statement following the release, Governor Glenn Stevens stated that, “On balance, the board judged that it was prudent to maintain the current setting of monetary policy, particularly in view of the acute sense of uncertainty in global financial markets.” Also weighing on the rate were Australian Building Approvals, which declined by -3.5% m/m, significantly lower than the consensus of a +2.6% increase, and Australian HPI, which increased by only +0.1%, versus an expected increase of +0.2%.

Wednesday – The rate continued declining as Australian Retail Sales declined by -0.1% m/m, versus an expected increase of +0.4%. Also, the Australian Trade Balance came out showing a surplus of +2.05B versus an expected surplus of +2.22B, and the AIG Services Index which came out at 48.8 versus a previous release of 48.5.

Thursday – The pair continued trading sharply lower as stock markets around the world collapsed along with commodity prices, with crude oil dropping 6% and gold losing $40 per ounce after making a new all time high.

Friday – The rate made its weekly low and a level not seen since April 6th, trading down to 1.0374 before recovering somewhat after hawkish comments from the RBA Monetary Policy Statement. AUD/USD went on to close at 1.0465, showing an overall loss of -5.0% for the week.

CAD

USD/CAD gained considerable ground last week as money flows favoured the U.S. Dollar and commodity prices declined sharply.

Monday – The rate began the week trading higher as the United States tentatively agreed on a bill to increase the debt ceiling, which passed the in the House of Representatives.

Tuesday – The pair continued trading higher after the debt ceiling bill passed in the Senate and despite lower Personal Spending and Income figures out of the United States.

Wednesday – The rate continued gaining as the U.S. reported a favourable ADP Non Farm Employment Change number.

Thursday – The pair then traded sharply higher as the price of crude oil dropped over 6% and gold collapsed after making a new all time high.

Friday – The rate then made its weekly high of 0.9852 after Canadian Employment Change came out showing only +7.1K, significantly lower than the +17.7K the market expected. Nevertheless, the Canadian Unemployment Rate dropped to 7.2% versus an expected 7.4%. Also out were Canadian Building Permits, which increased by +2.1% m/m, versus an expected decline of -4.8%. USD/CAD then sold off on profit taking to close the week at 0.9779, showing an overall gain of +2.3% from its previous weekly close.

NZD

The Kiwi lost considerable ground against the Greenback as risk assets took a hit and commodity prices weighed on the rate.

Monday – The pair began with the Kiwi making a new all time and its weekly high of 0.8841, and subsequently trading sharply lower after ANZ Commodity Prices declined by -0.1% m/m, versus a previous -1.2% decline. Also out was the New Zealand Labor Cost Index which gained +0.5% as widely anticipated.

Tuesday – The pair continued trading sharply lower as risk assets lost favour as the U.S. faced a debt downgrade and Europe continued mired in its financial crisis.

Wednesday – The pair extended its losses as the U.S. reported favourable employment numbers and New Zealand reported a flat reading for its quarterly Employment Change, while the New Zealand Unemployment Rate remained steady at 6.5%.

Thursday – The rate traded sharply lower as commodity prices were hit hard and panic selling took down the commodity dollars.

Friday – The Kiwi made its weekly low trading down to 0.8273 after a positive U.S. Non Farm Payrolls number before rallying sharply on short covering to close at 0.8443, showing an overall loss of -3.9% from its previous weekly close.

The Week Ahead

AUD: This week’s Australian economic calendar is considerably less active than last week, and it will feature the key Australian Employment Report due out on Thursday. Monday - ANZ Job Advertisements (last 3.7%). Tuesday - Home Loans (0.8%), and NAB Business Confidence (last 0). Wednesday - Westpac Consumer Sentiment (last -8.3%). Thursday - MI Inflation Expectations (last 3.4%), Employment Change (10.3K), and the Unemployment Rate (4.9%). Technical Overview – Initial resistance for AUD/USD is seen at 1.0525, 1.0559, 1.0653, 1.0693, and 1.0784. Above that, resistance shows at 1.0909, 1.1000, 1.1010/15 and 1.1064/79, with additional psychological resistance probable at 1.1500. Support for AUD/USD is indicated initially at 1.0423, 1.0390, 1.0374, 1.0287, 1.0203 and 1.0090 ahead of the key psychological 1.0000 parity level. Below that, support shows at 0.9803 and 0.9704.

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• AUD/USD

CAD: This week’s Canadian economic calendar is a bit less active than the previous week, and it features the important Trade Balance data due out on Thursday. Tuesday - Housing Starts (193K). Thursday - Trade Balance (-0.9B), and the NHPI (0.5%). Technical Overview – The chart for USD/CAD shows initial resistance at 0.9814/17, 0.9834, and 0.9852. Above that, resistance shows at 0.9884/97, 0.9911, 0.9966 and 0.9974/1.0057 around the key psychological 1.0000 level. Initial support for the rate shows up at 0.9764, 0.9741/45, 0.9686, 0.9645, 0.9567 and 0.9526. Below that, support shows at 0.9496, 0.9448/56, 0.9422, 0.9405/09, and at the long term low of 0.9056 that lies just ahead of psychological support at 0.9000.

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• CAD/USD

EUR: This week’s Eurozone economic calendar is about as busy as last week, and it will feature the ECB Monthly Bulletin due out on Thursday. Monday - Sentix Investor Confidence (3.6). Tuesday - German Trade Balance (12.8B), and the French Government Budget Balance (last -68.4B). Wednesday - German Final CPI (0.4%), and French Industrial Production (0.3%). Thursday - German WPI (-0.3%), and the ECB Monthly Bulletin. Friday - French Preliminary GDP (0.3%), French CPI (0.1%), French Preliminary Non-Farm Payrolls (0.2%), the Italian Trade Balance (last -2.41B), and EZ Industrial Production (0.1%). Technical Overview – Resistance for EUR/USD is seen initially at 1.4297, 1.4370, 1.4453, 1.4535, 1.4576, 1.4642/56 and 1.4695. Above that, resistance shows at 1.4881, 1.4939 and 1.5144. Support shows initially at 1.4142, 1.4054, 1.4013, 1.4000, 1.3836, 1.3703/23, 1.3524/45 and 1.3420/98.

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• EUR/USD

GBP: This week’s U.K. economic calendar is about as busy as last week, and it will feature the important BOE Inflation Report due out Wednesday. Tuesday - BRC Retail Sales Monitor (last -0.6%), RICS House Price Balance (-25%), Manufacturing Production (0.3%), Trade Balance (-8.2B), Industrial Production (0.4%), and the NIESR GDP Estimate (last 0.1%). Wednesday - BOE Governor King speaks, and the BOE Inflation Report. Thursday - Nationwide Consumer Confidence Aug 11th-18th (last 51), and the CB Leading Index (last 0.6%). Technical Overview – Resistance to the topside for GBP/USD shows initially at 1.6395, 1.6437, and 1.6473. Above that resistance shows at 1.6542/98, 1.6720/1.6744, 1.6876 and 1.7040. Support for the pair is indicated initially at 1.6340, 1.6260/63, 1.6223/36, 1.6192, 1.6176, 1.6120, 1.6110, 1.6086, 1.6076 and 1.6067 above the psychological 1.6000 level. Below that, support shows at 1.5990, 1.5972, in the 1.5910/30 region, at 1.5824, 1.5777 and 1.5750.

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• GBP/USD

JPY: This week’s Japanese economic calendar is a bit busier than last week, and it will feature the BOJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes scheduled for release on Tuesday. Monday - Bank Lending (-0.6%), Current Account (0.96T), and Economy Watchers Sentiment (50.3). Tuesday - BOJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, M2 Money Stock (2.9%), Household Confidence (37.6), Preliminary Machine Tool Orders (last 53.5%). Wednesday - Tertiary Industry Activity (1.1%), and CGPI (2.6%). Thursday - Core Machinery Orders (1.9%). Friday - Revised Industrial Production (3.9%). Technical Overview – Resistance for USD/JPY currently shows up initially at 78.66, 79.05, 79.40, 79.59, 79.85, 80.00 and 80.22. Above that, resistance shows at 80.82, 81.34, 81.76, 82.01/22, 82.77, 83.09 and 83.77. Initial support for the rate is seen at 78.30, 78.02, 76.77/88, 76.41, 76.28, and at the psychological 75.00 and 70.00 levels.

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• JPY/USD

NZD: This week’s New Zealand economic calendar is even less active than last week, and it will feature the important REINZ HPI due out on Wednesday. Wednesday - REINZ HPI 10-13th (last 1.3%). Thursday - Business NZ Manufacturing Index (last 54.3). Technical Overview – The chart for NZD/USD shows initial resistance at 0.8464, 0.8540, 0.8575, 0.8676, 0.8764, 0.8793 and 0.8841, with psychological resistance probable above that at the 0.9000 and 0.9500 levels. Support shows up initially at 0.8370/9, 0.8313, 0.8273, 0.8150 and 0.8109. Below that, support shows at 0.8072/93 and 0.8007/44 above the psychological 0.8000 level, and then at 0.7971, 0.7950, 0.7816 and 0.7754.

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• NZD/USD

USD: This week’s U.S. economic calendar is a bit quieter than last week, and it will feature the important Fed Funds Rate Decision due out on Tuesday. Tuesday - Preliminary Nonfarm Productivity (-0.5%), Preliminary Unit Labor Costs (2.0%), FOMC Rate Statement, and Federal Funds Rate Decision (<0.25%). Wednesday - Wholesale Inventories (0.9%), Crude Oil Inventories (last 1.0M), and the Federal Budget Balance (-140.3B). Thursday - Trade Balance (-47.5B), Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (402K), and Natural Gas Storage (last 44B). Friday - Core Retail Sales (0.2%), Retail Sales (0.4%), Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (63.3), Preliminary University of Michigan Inflation Expectations (last 3.4%), Business Inventories (0.7%), and FOMC Member Dudley speaks.

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EUR

EUR/USD closed mostly unchanged last week as both the Eurozone and the United States were pressured by debt issues.

Monday – The rate started the week on a soft note as Moody’s cut Greece’s government debt rating by three levels to Ca or junk. The rating’s agency put the probability of a Greek default at 100%. Economic releases had the Belgium NBB Business Climate survey print at -2.5 versus an expected -2.2.

Tuesday – The pair rallied sharply as the U.S. failed to make progress on raising the debt ceiling. Adding to the rally were hawkish comments by the ECB’s Christian Noyer who stated that “the ECB council remains in a position of very strong vigilance, without being predetermined about what we will do.” In economic releases, the GfK German Consumer Climate survey came out at 5.4 versus the 5.6 print expected, while U.S. CB Consumer Confidence came out at 59.5 versus a consensus of a 57.1 print, and U.S. New Home Sales missed expectations at 312K versus 321K that was expected.

Wednesday – The rate retreated sharply after making its weekly high of 1.4535 as doubts about the second Greek bailout being insufficient to avoid contagion into Italy and Spain surfaced. Fitch warned that Italy must take further measures if it was to avoid the debt crisis spreading to their economy. Releases had German Preliminary CPI increase by +0.4% m/m, versus an expected rise of +0.3% and U.S. Core Durable Goods Orders increase by only +0.1%, versus an expected increase of +0.5%, while Durable Goods Orders fell by -2.1%,significantly lower than the increase of +0.4% that was expected.

Thursday – The pair then continued lower as an auction of Italian debt resulted in surging yields, which reiterated concerns over contagion of the debt crisis to Italy and Spain. Adding to the rate’s weakness were German Unemployment Change dropping by -11K,versus an expected decline of -15K, and U.S. Pending Home Sales rising by +2.4%, significantly higher than the decline of -1.5% that was expected. Also, Initial Jobless Claims dropped to 398K from 422K, versus an expected decline to 413K.

Friday – The rate then made its weekly low of 1.4228 before rallying after U.S. Advance GDP came out at a disappointing +1.3% versus an expected increase of +1.7% with the previous number revised significantly downward from +1.9%. to +0.4% European releases had German Retail Sales increasing by +6.3% m/m versus an expected increase of only +1.6%. EUR/USD went on to close at 1.4364, a mere three pips lower than the previous weekly close and virtually unchanged.

JPY

USD/JPY extended last week’s declines as the Yen made new recent lows against the Greenback due in part to the U.S. failure to raise the debt ceiling.

Monday – The rate began the week trading lower after making its weekly high of 78.54. The downside was limited as traders expected possible intervention by the Japanese Ministry of Finance after comments from both BOJ Governor Masaaki Shirakawa and Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda. Noda stated that Tokyo would take “tough action” if necessary to curb the Yen’s strength.

Tuesday – The pair continued heading south as Japanese Finance Ministry official declined to comment on the Ministry taking any action in the forex market.

Wednesday – The rate then consolidated trading marginally higher despite disappointing U.S. economic numbers and in the absence of any significant economic data out of Japan.

Thursday – The pair resumed its downtrend after Japanese Economics Minister Kaoru Yosano stated that an intervention of one to two trillion Yen would be quite difficult and that Japan would have to act alone to hold its currency down. Adding to the Yen’s strength was Japanese Retail Sales increasing by +1.1% y/y, considerably higher than the decline of -0.6% anticipated by the market.

Friday – The rate then fell dramatically, breaking through the 77.00 level after the United States reported a dismal Advance GDP number. USD/JPY went on to close at 76.97, showing a loss of -1.9% overall from its previous weekly close.

GBP

GBP/USD continued its uptrend last week as the United States failed to raise the debt ceiling and despite mixed economic numbers out of both the United States and the UK.

Monday – Sterling began the week on a soft note trading higher after making its weekly low of 1.6260 as Moody’s downgraded Greece’s government debt rating to junk. Economic releases had UK BBA Mortgage Approvals increase by +31.7 versus an expected +31.3.

Tuesday – Cable then rallied sharply after UK Preliminary GDP showed an increase of +0.2% q/q as was widely anticipated.

Wednesday – The rate then tumbled after UK CBI Industrial Order Expectations came out at -10, significantly lower than the consensus of a -2 print.

Thursday – Cable then recovered, trading higher as the United States continued without a plan to raise its debt ceiling and despite UK CBI Realized Sales coming out at -5, considerably lower than the consensus of a rise of +1.

Friday – The rate traded in a wide range soaring to its weekly high of 1.6469 before retreating as the United States reported a disappointing Advance GDP number. UK economic releases had Nationwide HPI increase by +0.2% m/m versus an expected decline of -0.1%, while GfK Consumer Confidence came in at a dismal -30 versus an expected print of -26, and Net Lending to Individuals increased by only +0.4% m/m, considerably lower than the +1.3B that was expected. GBP/USD went on to close at 1.6409, an increase of +0.7% for the week.

AUD

AUD/USD made a new post float high last week as Aussie CPI dashed any chance of an RBA rate cut and the price of gold made a new all time high of $1,632.60 per ounce.

Monday –The rate began the week trading higher after making its weekly low of 1.0794 as Australian PPI rose by +0.8% q/q, versus an expected rise of +0.6%.

Tuesday – The Aussie continued higher as the price of gold rallied and despite the Australian CB Leading Index dropping -0.1% m/m versus a previous rise of +0.2%, revised upward from +0.1%.

Wednesday – The rate continued climbing making its weekly high of 1.1079 as the price of gold made a new all time high of $1,628.25. Adding to the Aussie’s strength was Australian CPI and Trimmed Mean CPI, which were both up by +0.9% q/q versus an expected rise of +0.7% for both.

Thursday – The pair then retreated somewhat as the United States reported favourable Pending Home Sales and Initial Jobless Claims.

Friday – The Aussie continued losing ground as Australian Private Sector Credit declined by -0.1% m/m, versus an expected increase of +0.4% and despite a dismal U.S. Advance GDP number and the price of gold making a new all time high. AUD/USD finished the week at 1.0984, showing an increase of +1.2% from its previous weekly close.

CAD

USD/CAD gained ground last week as Canadian GDP indicated the Canadian economy continues showing considerable weakness.

Monday – The rate began the week trading lower in the absence of any significant economic data out of either Canada or the United States.

Tuesday – The pair continued trading lower making its weekly and a 3 and a half year low of 0.9405 as prospects for a downgrade to U.S. debt became more likely.

Wednesday – The rate then reversed and began trading higher despite the United States reporting disappointing Durable Goods and Core Durable Goods Orders.

Thursday – The pair then consolidated trading marginally lower despite positive U.S. Pending Home Sales and Initial Jobless Claims.

Friday – The rate then made its weekly high of 0.9588 after Canadian GDP showed a decline of-0.3% m/m, significantly lower than the consensus of a +0.1% rise. Also out was Canadian RMPI, which declined by -2.2% m/m, considerably lower than the increase of + 0.6% that was expected. USD/CAD went on to close at 0.9553, showing a gain of + 0.7% for the week.

NZD

The Kiwi continued its meteoric rise making yet another new all time high against the Greenback last week as the RBNZ left rates unchanged.

Monday – The rate began the week consolidating the previous week’s gains, dropping marginally as the New Zealand Trade Balance showed a surplus of +230M versus an expected surplus of +391M with the previous number revised significantly lower from +605M to +552M.

Tuesday – The pair then traded higher making a new all time high of 0.8740 as the United States reported disappointing New Home Sales.

Wednesday – The pair made another all time high before retreating as the RBNZ left the benchmark Official Cash Rate unchanged at 2.50%. In the Rate Statement following the announcement, Governor Allan Bollard stated that, “Provided current global financial risks recede and the economy continues to recover, the bank sees little need for the March ‘insurance’ cut to remain in place much longer.”

Thursday – The rate traded higher as continued uncertainty about the U.S. debt ceiling weighed on the Greenback.

Friday – The Kiwi made its weekly and a new all time high trading at 0.8793 as the price of gold also made a new all time high and the United States reported a disappointing Advance GDP number. NZD/USD went on to close at 0.8787, showing an overall gain of +1.7% from its previous weekly close.

The Week Ahead

AUD: This week’s Australian economic calendar is considerably busier than last week, and it will feature the key RBA Rate Decision due out on Tuesday. Monday – Partial Australian Bank Holiday, AIG Manufacturing Index (last 52.9), MI Inflation Gauge (last 0.0%), and the tentatively scheduled HIA New Home Sales (last -0.2%). Tuesday - Building Approvals (3.2%), HPI (-0.9%), RBA Cash Rate Decision (4.75%), RBA Rate Statement, and Commodity Prices (last 28.2%). Wednesday - AIG Services Index (last 48.5), Retail Sales (0.4%), and the Trade Balance (2.23B). Friday - AIG Construction Index (last 35.8), and the RBA Monetary Policy Statement. Technical Overview – Initial resistance for the rate is seen at 1.0000, 1.1010/15 and 1.1074/78, with additional psychological resistance probable at 1.1500. Support for AUD/USD is indicated initially at 1.0975, 1.0963, 1.0930, 1.0909, 1.0875, 1.0820, 1.0772 and 1.0693. Below that, support shows at 1.0607, 1.0559, 1.0524, 1.0500, 1.0390, 1.0287, 1.0203 and 1.0090 ahead of the key psychological parity level.

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• AUD/USD

CAD: This week’s Canadian economic calendar is a bit more active than the previous week, and it features the key Employment data due out on Friday. Monday – Canadian Bank Holiday Friday - Employment Change (20.3K), the Unemployment Rate (7.4%), Building Permits (-4.7%), and the Ivey PMI (62.9). Technical Overview – The chart for USD/CAD shows initial resistance at 0.9588, 0.9615/50, 0.9693 and 0.9777. Above that resistance shows at 0.9884/97, 0.9911, 0.9966 and 0.9974/1.0057 around the key psychological 1.0000 level. Initial support for the rate shows up at 0.9526, 0.9496, 0.9448/56, 0.9422, 0.9405/09, and at the long term low of 0.9056 that lies just ahead of psychological support at 0.9000.

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• CAD/USD

EUR: This week’s Eurozone economic calendar is about as busy as last week, and it will feature the ECB’s Rate Decision due out on Thursday. Monday - Final Manufacturing PMI (50.4), Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate (8.0%), and the EZ Unemployment Rate (9.9%). Tuesday – EZ PPI (0.1%). Wednesday – EZ Final Services PMI (51.4), and EZ Retail Sales (0.5%). Thursday - German Factory Orders (-0.3%), Minimum Bid Rate Decision (1.50%), and the ECB Press Conference. Friday - French Trade Balance (-6.2B), Italian Industrial Production (0.4%), Italian Preliminary GDP (0.2%), and German Industrial Production (0.1%). Technical Overview – Support for EUR/USD shows initially at 1.4323, 1.4254, 1.4229, 1.4216 and 1.4139. Below that, support shows at 1.4068, 1.4013, 1.3969, 1.3703/23, 1.3524/45 and 1.3420/98. Resistance to the topside is seen initially at 1.4412, 1.4437/41, 1.4497, 1.4535, 1.4576, 1.4642/56 and 1.4695. Above that, resistance shows at 1.4881, 1.4939 and 1.5144.

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• EUR/USD

GBP: This week’s U.K. economic calendar is about as busy as last week, and it will feature the important BOE Rate Decision due out Thursday. Monday - Manufacturing PMI (51.1). Tuesday - Halifax HPI (0.1%), and Construction PMI (53.3). Wednesday - BRC Shop Price Index (last 2.9%), and Services PMI (53.3). Thursday - Asset Purchase Facility (200B), Official Bank Rate Decision (0.50%), and the tentatively scheduled MPC Rate Statement. Friday - PPI Input (0.6%), and PPI Output (0.2%). Technical Overview – Resistance to the topside for GBP/USD shows initially at 1.6445, 1.6469 and 1.6494. Above that resistance shows at 1.6542/98, 1.6720/1.6744, 1.6876 and 1.7040. Support for the pair is indicated initially at 1.6293, 1.6260/63, 1.6192, 1.6176, 1.6120, 1.6110, 1.6086, 1.6076 and 1.6067 above the psychological 1.6000 level. Below that, support shows at 1.5990, 1.5972, in the 1.5910/30 region, at 1.5824, 1.5777 and 1.5750.

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• GBP/USD

JPY: This week’s Japanese economic calendar is a bit quieter than last week, and it will feature the BOJ Rate Decision tentatively scheduled for Friday. Tuesday - Monetary Base (18.1%), and Average Cash Earnings (0.4%). Friday – BOJ Monetary Policy Statement (tentative), Overnight Call Rate (tentative, <0.10%), BOJ Press Conference (tentative), and Leading Indicators (103.6%). Technical Overview – Resistance for USD/JPY currently shows up initially at 77.56/66, 77.89, 78.16, 78.49/54, 78.72, 79.01, 79.31, 79.59 and 79.85 below the psychological 80.00 level. Above that, resistance shows at 80.82, 81.34, 81.76, 82.01/22, 82.77, 83.09 and 83.77. Initial support for the rate is seen at 76.88, and then below that at 76.41 and at the psychological 75.00 and 70.00 levels.

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• JPY/USD

NZD: This week’s New Zealand economic calendar is about as active as last week, and it will feature the important NZ Employment data due out on Thursday. Monday - ANZ Commodity Prices (last -1.2%). Tuesday - Labor Cost Index (0.5%). Thursday - Employment Change (0.1%) and the Unemployment Rate (6.5%). Technical Overview – The chart for NZD/USD shows initial resistance at 0.8793, with psychological resistance probable at the 0.9000 and 0.9500 levels. Support shows up initially at 0.8764, 0.8747, 0.8675, 0.8621, 0.8570/74, 0.8525, 0.8504 and 0.8488. Below that, support shows at 0.8370/8, 0.8273, 0.8150, 0.8109, 0.8072/93 and 0.8007/44 above the psychological 0.8000 level.

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• NZD/USD

USD: This week’s U.S. economic calendar is a bit busier than last week, and it will feature the important Non Farm Payrolls data due out on Friday. Monday - ISM Manufacturing PMI (55.0), Construction Spending (-0.1%), and ISM Manufacturing Prices (64.4). Tuesday - Core PCE Price Index (0.2%), Personal Spending (0.2%), Personal Income (0.3%), and Total Vehicle Sales (11.9M). Wednesday - Challenger Job Cuts (last 5.3%), ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (102K), ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (53.9), Factory Orders (-0.4%), and Crude Oil Inventories (last 2.3M). Thursday – Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (407K), and Natural Gas Storage (last 43B). Friday - Non-Farm Payrolls (91K), Unemployment Rate (9.2%), Average Hourly Earnings (0.2%), and Consumer Credit (5.0B).

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EUR EUR/USD rallied sharply after new measures for a Greek bailout were reached at the EU Economic Summit in Brussels on Thursday. Monday – The rate began the week trading higher off of its weekly low of 1.4013 as concerns over the Greek crisis prompted an emergency meeting to discuss the second Greek bailout package later in the week. Economic releases had U.S. TIC Long Term Purchases come at 23.6B considerably lower than the 48.4B that was expected. Tuesday – The pair began trading higher as expectations for a resolution to Greece became more likely. In economic releases, German ZEW Economic Sentiment printed at -15.1, versus a consensus of -11.8, and U.S. Building Permits came out at 0.62M as widely expected. Wednesday – The rate continued picking up steam as German Chancellor Merkel met with French President Sarkozy who worked out a deal on Greek debt to present at the EU Summit. Economic numbers had German PPI increase by +0.1% as widely expected; also, U.S. Existing Home Sales came out at 4.77M, versus 4.92M that was expected. Thursday – The pair then traded sharply higher after news that the EMU had drafted a document stating that the European Financial Stability Facility or EFSF could extend loans to Ireland, Greece and Portugal from 7.5 years to more than 15 years. In addition, lending rates would be reduced from 4.5% to 3.5% for Greece and Portugal. Economic numbers had German Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI come out at 52.1 and 52.9 respectively, both numbers failed to meet expectations. Also, the EZ Current Account was released showing a -5.2B deficit, versus an expected deficit of -4.8B. In U.S. numbers, Initial Jobless Claims rose to 418K versus an expected 409K, and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index came out at 3.2, significantly higher than the 2.7 consensus. Friday – The rate then sold off on profit taking and in reaction to the German Ifo Business Climate survey, which came in lower than expectations at 112.9 versus a consensus of a 113.7 print. EUR/USD went on to close the week at 1.4367, showing an overall gain of +1.5%. JPY USD/JPY continued dropping last week as indecision over raising the U.S. debt ceiling and weaker economic numbers weighed on the Greenback. Monday – The rate began on a soft note the United States reported disappointing TIC Long Term Purchases and in the absence of any significant economic data out of Japan. Tuesday – The pair strengthened somewhat as the U.S. reported better than expected Housing Starts and favourable Building Permits. Wednesday – The rate then weakened after making its weekly high of 79.30 as traders preferred holding long Yen positions ahead of the EU Summit. Thursday – The pair then dropped sharply after the Japanese Trade Balance came out showing a deficit of only -0.19T, versus an expected deficit of -0.25T. Also weighing on the rate was a report from S&P, which sees a 50/50 chance for downgrading U.S. credit rating to AA from AAA. Friday – The rate consolidated after making its weekly low of 78.21 trading higher in the absence of any significant economic data out of either the United States or Japan. USD/JPY went on to close at 78.42, showing an overall decline of -0.8% for the week. GBP GBP/USD extended its previous week’s gains as the BOE’s MPC Meeting Minutes came out more hawkish than expected. Monday – The rate began the week trading higher after making its weekly low of 1.6004 after the UK Rightmove HPI showed a decline of -1.6% m/m versus a previous reading of +0.6%. Tuesday – The pair then began trading higher despite positive housing numbers out of the United States and in the absence of any significant economic data out of the UK. Wednesday – Cable continued trading higher after the BOE MPC Meeting Minutes came out showing only two policymakers — Weale and Dale — voted to raise rates. The minutes were more hawkish than expected nonetheless. Thursday – Cable then traded sharply higher as the EU came to a near term solution to Greece and UK Retail Sales increased by +0.7% m/m, edging the consensus of a +0.5% increase. Friday – Cable traded lower on profit taking and in the absence of any significant economic data out of either the United States or the UK. GBP/USD went on to close at 1.6298, showing an overall gain of +1.0% from its previous weekly close. AUD AUD/USD was sharply higher last week as the price of gold made a new all time high and risk appetite returned to the market. Monday –The rate began the week trading to its weekly low of 1.0604 despite Australian New Motor Vehicle Sales increasing by +1.3% m/m, significantly higher than the previous reading of -7.5% Tuesday – The Aussie then rallied sharply after the price of gold hit a new all time high of $1,609.79 per ounce. Also the RBA’s Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes were released expressing concern over a Greek default, the minutes stated that, “An uncontrolled default could be damaging for the global economy, particularly if there were contagion to other countries in Europe and a significant loss of confidence in the ability of policymakers to manage the fall-out.” Wednesday – The rate consolidated and rose despite the Australian MI Leading Index declining by -0.1% m/m, versus a previous reading of +0.2% Thursday – The pair continued rallying sharply as the Greenback suffered from a possible downgrade to U.S. debt by S&P and despite the Australian NAB Quarterly Business Confidence survey printing at 6, versus a previous 11 print. Friday – The Aussie continued gaining making its weekly high of 1.0873 as Australian Import Prices came out showing an increase of +0.8% q/q, significantly higher than the decline of -1.0% the market expected. The pair then sold off on profit taking to end at 1.0848, gaining +1.9% overall for the week. CAD C 0.9489 PC 0.9541H 0.9634 Monday L 0.9422 Thursday USD/CAD extended the previous week’s losses making a new recent low as the BOC left rates unchanged and Canada reported favourable economic data. Monday – The rate began the week trading higher despite Canadian Foreign Securities Purchases increasing by +15.4B, more than double the consensus of +7.41B. Tuesday – The pair then reversed direction and began trading lower as the BOC left its benchmark Overnight Rate unchanged at 1.0%. The bank stated that “to the extent that the expansion continues and the current material excess supply in the economy is gradually absorbed, some of the considerable monetary policy stimulus currently in place will be withdrawn.” The omission of the word “eventually” in the statement gave indications that a rate hike was more likely than not in the near or mid term. Wednesday – The rate continued trading lower as Canadian Wholesale Sales increased by +1.9% m/m, significantly higher than the consensus of a +0.2% increase. Adding to the Loonie’s strength was demand for Canadian Dollars from the acquisition of Canada’s Opti Canada Inc. oil company by Chinese oil company CNOOC Ltd. Thursday – The pair continued trading sharply lower as the EU came to an agreement on the Greek bailout, making its weekly and four year low of 0.9422. Friday – The rate then rallied as Canada reported Core CPI declined by -0.6% m/m versus an expected flat release, while CPI declined by -0.7% versus a decline of -0.2% that was expected. Nevertheless, Canadian Core Retail Sales increased by +0.5% m/m, versus a +0.2% rise that was expected. USD/CAD went on to close at 0.9489, a loss of -0.5% from its previous weekly close. NZD C 0.8641 PC 0.8464 H 0.8672 L 0.8395 Monday The Kiwi extended the previous week’s gains making yet another all time high last week as the price of commodities increased and the U.S. reported mixed economic data. Monday – The rate began the week on a soft note, trading down to its weekly low of 0.8395 despite New Zealand CPI increasing by +1.0% q/q, edging the consensus of a +0.8% rise. Tuesday – The pair then reversed and began trading higher as the price of gold made yet another all time high. Wednesday – The pair consolidated as New Zealand Visitor Arrivals declined by -5.1% versus a previous reading of -0.5% revised upward from -0.3% Thursday – The pair continued trading higher as New Zealand Credit Card Spending showed an increase of +4.5% versus a previous reading of +5.5% revised upward from +5.1%. Friday – The rate continued higher, making its weekly and new all time high of 0.8672 in the absence of any significant economic data out of either New Zealand or the United States. NZD/USD then sold off on profit taking to close at 0.8641, a gain of +2.0% for the week.

The Week Ahead

AUD: This week’s Australian economic calendar is a bit busier than last week, and it will feature the key CPI data due out on Wednesday. Monday - PPI (0.6%), and RBA Assistant Governor Edey speaks. Tuesday - CB Leading Index (last 0.1%), and RBA Governor Stevens speaks. Wednesday - CPI (0.7%), and Trimmed Mean CPI (0.7%). Friday - Private Sector Credit (0.4%). Technical Overview – Initial resistance for the rate is seen at 1.0873/87, and above that, resistance shows at 1.0976, the psychological 1.1000 level and 1.1010, with additional psychological resistance probable at 1.1500. Support for AUD/USD is indicated initially at 1.0836, 1.0819, 1.0772/98, 1.0692, 1.0618, 1.0577, 1.0559, 1.0524, and at the psychological 1.0500 level. Below that support shows at 1.0440/54, 1.0390, 1.0287, 1.0203 and 1.0090 ahead of the key psychological parity level.

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• AUD/USD

CAD: This week’s Canadian economic calendar is considerably less active than the previous week, and it features the key GDP data due out on Friday. Friday - GDP (0.1%), RMPI (1.4%), and IPPI (0.4%). Technical Overview – The chart for USD/CAD shows initial resistance at 0.9519, 0.9528, 0.9622, 0.9634/50, 0.9666, 0.9749 and 0.9777. Above that resistance shows at 0.9885/97, 0.9911, 0.9966 and 0.9974/1.0057 around the key psychological 1.0000 level. Initial support for the rate shows up at in the key 0.9448/53 region, at 0.9423 and at the long term low of 0.9056 that lies just ahead of psychological support at 0.9000.

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• CAD/USD

EUR: This week’s Eurozone economic calendar is quieter than last week, and it will feature the EZ CPI Flash Estimate data due out on Friday. Monday - Belgium NBB Business Climate (-2.2). Tuesday - GfK German Consumer Climate (5.6). Wednesday - German Import Prices (0.0%), German Preliminary CPI (0.3%), M3 Money Supply (2.4%), and Private Loans (2.8%). Thursday - German Unemployment Change (-16K). Friday - German Retail Sales (1.6%), French Consumer Spending (0.4%), CPI Flash Estimate (2.7%), and Italian Preliminary CPI (0.2%). Technical Overview – Support for EUR/USD shows initially at 1.4323, 1.4273/81, 1.4238, 1.4216 and 1.4139. Below that, support shows at 1.4068, 1.4013, 1.3969, 1.3703/23, 1.3524/45 and 1.3420/98. Resistance to the topside is seen initially at 1.4436, 1.4465, 1.4537/52, 1.4576, 1.4642/56 and 1.4695. Above that, resistance shows at 1.4881, 1.4939 and 1.5144.

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• EUR/USD

GBP: This week’s U.K. economic calendar is busier than last week, and it will feature the important Preliminary GDP data due out Tuesday. Monday - BBA Mortgage Approvals (31.3K). Tuesday - Preliminary GDP (0.2%) and Index of Services (0.9%). Wednesday - CBI Industrial Order Expectations (-2), and MPC Member Miles speaks. Thursday - CBI Realized Sales (2). Friday - GfK Consumer Confidence (-26), Nationwide HPI (-0.1%), Net Lending to Individuals (1.3B), M4 Money Supply (0.3%), and Mortgage Approvals (46K). Technical Overview – Resistance to the topside for GBP/USD shows initially at 1.6315, 1.6325, 1.6338 and 1.6382. Above that, resistance shows at 1.6440/94, 1.6542/98, 1.6720/1.6744, 1.6876 and 1.7040. Support for the pair is indicated initially at 1.6263, 1.6192, 1.6176, 1.6120, 1.6110, 1.6086, 1.6076 and 1.6067 above the psychological 1.6000 level. Below that, support shows at 1.5990, 1.5972, in the 1.5910/30 region, at 1.5824, 1.5777 and 1.5750.

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• GBP/USD

JPY: This week’s Japanese economic calendar is much busier than last week, and it will feature Japanese Retail Sales data due out on Thursday. Monday – BOJ Governor Shirakawa speaks. Tuesday - CSPI (-0.9%). Thursday - Retail Sales (-0.6%). Friday - Manufacturing PMI (last 50.7), Household Spending (-2.2%), Tokyo Core CPI 0.2%, National Core CPI (0.5%), Unemployment Rate (4.6%), Preliminary Industrial Production (4.6%), and Housing Starts (4.9%). Technical Overview – Resistance for USD/JPY currently shows up initially at 78.45, 78.61, 78.72, 79.01, 79.31, 79.59 and 79.85 below the psychological 80.00 level. Above that, resistance shows at 80.82, 81.34, 81.76, 82.01/22, 82.77, 83.09 and 83.77. Initial support for the rate is seen at 78.27, 78.24 and 78.21, and then below that at 76.41.

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• JPY/USD

NZD: This week’s New Zealand economic calendar is more active than last week, and it will feature the important NZ Rate Decision due out on Thursday. Tuesday - Trade Balance (404M). Wednesday - NBNZ Business Confidence (last 46.5). Thursday – RBNZ Rate Statement and Official Cash Rate Decision (2.50%). Friday - Building Consents (last 2.2%). Technical Overview – The chart for NZD/USD shows initial resistance at 0.8672, with psychological resistance probable at the 0.9000 level. Support shows up initially at 0.8622, 0.8570/4, 0.8525, 0.8504, 0.8488, 0.8370/8, 0.8273, 0.8150, and 0.8109. Below that, support is noted at 0.8072/93 and 0.8007/44 above the psychological 0.8000 level, and then at 0.7971, 0.7900, 0.7816/58, 0.7744, 0.7668, and 0.7580/82 ahead of the psychological 0.7500 level.

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• NZD/USD

USD: This week’s U.S. economic calendar is a bit busier than last week, and it will feature the important Advance GDP data due out on Friday. Tuesday - S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI (-4.6%), CB Consumer Confidence (58.1), New Home Sales (321K), and the Richmond Manufacturing Index (5). Wednesday - Core Durable Goods Orders (0.5%), Durable Goods Orders (0.4%), Crude Oil Inventories (last -3.7M), and the Fed’s Beige Book. Thursday - Unemployment Claims (412K), Pending Home Sales (-1.0%), and Natural Gas Storage (last 60B). Friday - Advance GDP (1.6%), Advance GDP Price Index (2.0%), Employment Cost Index (0.5%), Chicago PMI (60.2), Revised University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (64.1), and Revised University of Michigan Inflation Expectations (last 3.4%).

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EUR

EUR/USD continued falling as fears of contagion of the financial crisis from Greece to Italy and Spain weighed heavily on the rate.

Monday – The rate began the week trading sharply lower after an emergency meeting was called by EU leaders in Brussels to discuss the Greek bailout and contagion to Italy. The EU is discussed the possibility for a controlled default of some Greek debt.

Tuesday – The rate weakened further trading down to its weekly and 4 month low of 1.3836 after concerns over contagion to Italy became more prevalent. Also, Luc Frieden, Finance Minister of Luxembourg expressed that a selective default on Greek debt was not an option for EU finance ministers. Rumours of Euro buying by the ECB and China reversed the free-fall. In economic releases, the U.S. Trade Deficit increased to -50.2B versus an expected -44.1B.

Wednesday – The rate then rallied sharply after news that the United States credit rating was being put under review for a downgrade by Moody’s, and comments by Fed Chair Bernanke testifying before the House. Bernanke stated that “I think we have to keep all the options on the table.” He continued, “the recovery is faltering and we''re looking at inflation dropping down toward zero, or something where inflation issues are not relevant, then, you know, we have to look at all the options.” Suggesting another round of QE might be in the works.

Thursday – The pair then traded up to its weekly high of 1.4281 before trading lower after Bernanke stated in his second day of testimony that the Fed is, “not prepared at this point to take further action,” regarding a third round of QE. In economic numbers, EZ CPI increased by +2.7% y/y as was widely expected, while EZ Core CPI increased by +1.6% y/y, edging the consensus of a +1.5% increase. In U.S. numbers, Retail Sales increased by +0.1% m/m versus an expected decline of -0.1%, and Core Retail Sales, which came out with a flat reading m/m, versus an expected increase of +0.1%. Also, U.S. PPI declined by -0.4% m/m, versus -0.2% that was expected, and Core PPI increased by +0.3% m/m versus an expected increase of +0.2%. Initial Jobless Claims also improved dropping to 405K, versus an expected 413K.

Friday – The rate then consolidated as traders awaited the results of the European Banking Authority’s stress tests on 90 European banks. The results showed that only 8 of the banks had failed, while 16 other banks were considered in the “danger zone”. Of the eight failing banks, five were from Spain, two from Greece and one from Austria. EUR/USD went on to close at 1.4146, declining by -0.8% from its previous weekly close.

JPY

USD/JPY continued losing ground last week as the United States reported weaker economic data and Japan’s economy showed signs of improvement.

Monday – The rate began the week on a soft note as Japan reported its M2 Money Stock had increased by +2.9% y/y, edging the consensus of a +2.8% increase. Also out was Japanese Household Confidence which came out just slightly below expectations at 35.3, versus 35.7 that was expected, and Japanese Preliminary Machine Tool Orders that came out at 53.3% y/y, versus a previous print of 34.0%.

Tuesday – The Yen strengthened considerably on risk asset flows and after the BOJ left the benchmark Overnight Call Rate unchanged at <0.10% as was widely expected. In the Monetary Policy Statement following the release, the bank noted that, "uncertainty has increased somewhat with regard to the longer-term outlook for electricity supply constraints," because of the nuclear power disaster at the Fukushima power plant.

Wednesday – The rate continued declining as Japanese Revised Industrial Production increased by +6.2% m/m, versus an expected increase of +5.7%, also, the BOJ Monthly Report noted that, “Japans economic activity is picking up with an easing of the supply-side constraints caused by the earthquake disaster. After declining sharply following the earthquake, production has recently shown clear signs of picking up with the easing of supply-side constraints.”

Thursday – The pair then made its weekly low of 0.7845 before reversing and trading higher after the United States reported mixed economic numbers and Fed Chief Bernanke noted in his second day of testimony before the U.S. Senate that the Federal Reserve was not yet prepared to resume further easing.

Friday – The rate consolidated after the BOJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes showed that members were more cautious about the strong Yen and that “Many members expressed the view that downside risks from overseas economies have somewhat heightened.” USD/JPY went on to close at 79.06, showing an overall loss of -2.0% for the week.

GBP

GBP/USD gained ground last week after rebounding off of a five month low on Tuesday. Cable shot up after Bernanke’s testimony and Moody’s possible downgrade of U.S. debt mid-week.

Monday – Sterling began the week trading substantially lower as fears of contagion of the debt crisis in the Eurozone from Greece to Italy and Spain weighed on the GBP. UK banks have considerable exposure to both countries’ debt.

Tuesday – The pair then extended the previous day’s losses as the UK reported a slew of negative economic data. The most damaging was UK CPI, which came out at +4.2% versus an expected +4.5%, making a BOE rate hike even less likely. Also out were the BRC Retail Sales Monitor, which declined by -0.6% y/y, versus a previous reading of -2.1%, and the RICS House Price Balance, declining by -27%, versus an expected drop of -25%. Also out were the DCLG HPI, which declined by -1.6% y/y, versus an expected decline of only -0.2%, and UK RPI, showing an increase of only +5.0% versus an expected increase of +5.2%.

Wednesday – Cable reversed and began rallying substantially after Moody’s put U.S. debt on review for a downgrade and the Fed’s Bernanke hinted at another round of QE in his testimony before the House. In economic releases, UK Claimant Count Change increased to 25.5K from 22.5K, versus an expected 15.1K, while the UK Average Earnings index increased by +2.3% 3m/y, versus an expected increase of +2.0%. Also out was the UK Unemployment Rate which held steady at 7.7%.

Thursday – The rate then traded higher making its weekly high of 1.6192 after the United States reported mixed economic data. The rate pulled back after Bernanke’s second day of testimony had the Chairman rule out further QE.

Friday – Cable consolidated as traders awaited the results of the EBA’s bank stress tests and in the absence of any significant economic data out of the UK, with mixed to negative economic numbers out of the United States. GBP/USD went on to close at 1.6132, showing an overall increase of +0.5% from its previous weekly close.

AUD

AUD/USD lost ground last week as risk aversion due to the European debt crisis and Westpac’s recent predictions of an RBA rate cut weighed on the Aussie.

Monday –The rate opened weaker as Australian Home Loans increased by only +4.4% m/m, versus an expected increase of +4.6%.

Tuesday – The Aussie continued trading lower making its weekly low of 1.0524 as risk aversion and safe haven buying drove the price of gold to a series of all time highs and put pressure on the commodity dollars. Also, the Australian NAB Business Confidence survey came out with a reading of 0, versus a previous reading of 6.

Wednesday – The rate reversed direction and traded sharply higher after U.S. debt was put on review for a downgrade by Moody’s and the Fed’s Bernanke made dovish comments in Congressional testimony. Economic releases had Australian Westpac Consumer Sentiment survey come out at -8.3%, versus a previous reading of -2.6%.

Thursday – The pair resumed its downtrend after making its weekly high of 1.0798. Australian MI Inflation Expectations came out at +3.4%, verus a previous reading of +3.3%,while U.S. numbers came in mixed.

Friday – The Aussie then fell sharply after the country’s second largest bank; Westpac Banking Corp surprised the market forecasting the RBA would begin reducing interest rates by the end of the year. AUD/USD went on to close at 1.0642, an overall drop of -1.0% for the week. CAD

USD/CAD gave back some of its previous week’s gains as the United States reported mixed economic data and the Loonie benefited from rising commodity prices.

Monday – The rate began the week trading higher despite Canadian Housing Starts increasing by +1.7% to +197K, versus an expected rise to +182K with the previous number revised significantly from +184K to +194K.

Tuesday – The pair continued trading higher making its weekly high of 0.9777 as asset flows favoured the U.S. Dollar over the Canadian Dollar as news of the European debt crisis affected the market. The rate then reversed direction and traded lower.

Wednesday – The rate continued trading sharply lower as U.S. debt was put on review by Moody’s and Fed Chairman Bernanke made dovish comments testifying before Congress.

Thursday – The pair consolidated trading higher after the U.S. reported mixed economic numbers and Bernanke stated in his second day of testimony, the Fed would not implement additional stimulus measures.

Friday – The rate made its weekly low of 0.9519 as the U.S. reported mostly negative economic data and despite Canadian Manufacturing Sales declining by -0.8% m/m, versus a consensus of only a -0.2% drop. USD/CAD went on to close at 0.9541, showing an overall decline of -0.7%.

NZD

The Kiwi continued trading vertically making another new all time high against the Greenback last week as New Zealand reported favourable economic numbers while the United States reported mixed to negative economic data.

Monday – The rate began the week trading lower after the previous week’s close at all time highs.

Tuesday – The pair continued trading sharply lower making its weekly low of 0.8109 as risk aversion due to the European debt fiasco put pressure on the rate.

Wednesday – The Kiwi then reversed direction and traded significantly higher after New Zealand GDP came out showing growth of +0.8% q/q, significantly higher than the consensus of a +0.2% increase. Also supporting the Kiwi was Moody’s warning on U.S. debt and Bernanke’s dovish comments in testimony before Congress.

Thursday – The pair continued trading higher making its weekly and a new all time high of 0.8504 after the New Zealand REINZ HPI increased by +1.3% m/m, versus a previous reading of -1.8%. Also supporting the rate were higher crude oil prices and a new all time high in the price of gold. Friday – The rate continued its ascent, as the United States reported negative economic figures. NZD/USD went on to close at 0.8464, an overall gain of +1.1% from its previous weekly close.

The Week Ahead

AUD: This week’s Australian economic calendar is about as quiet as last week, and it will feature the key RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes due out on Tuesday. Monday - New Motor Vehicle Sales (last -7.6%). Tuesday - Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes. Wednesday - MI Leading Index (last 0.2%). Thursday - NAB Quarterly Business Confidence (last 11). Friday - Import Prices (-1.0%). Technical Overview – Initial resistance for the rate is seen at 1.0659, 1.0692, 1.0744, 1.0784/8, 1.0798, and in the 1.0876/87 region. Above that, resistance shows at 1.0976 and at 1.1010 that lies just over the psychological 1.1000 level, with additional psychological resistance probable at 1.1500. Support for AUD/USD is indicated initially at 1.0618, 1.0577, 1.0524, and at the psychological 1.0500 level. Below that support shows at 1.0440/54, 1.0390, 1.0287, 1.0203 and 1.0090 ahead of the key psychological parity level.

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• AUD/USD

CAD: This week’s Canadian economic calendar is more active than the previous week, and it features the key BOC Rate Decision due out on Tuesday. Monday - Foreign Securities Purchases (7.41B), and New Motor Vehicle Sales (0.5%). Tuesday - Leading Index (1.2%), the BOC Rate Statement and Overnight Rate Decision (1.00%). Wednesday - Wholesale Sales (0.2%), BOC Monetary Policy Report and BOC Press Conference. Friday - Core CPI (0.0%), CPI (-0.2%), Core Retail Sales (0.2%), and Retail Sales (-0.3%). Technical Overview – The chart for USD/CAD shows initial resistance at 0.9548, 0.9562, 0.9576, 0.9597, 0.9601/22, 0.9639/50, 0.9666, 0.9749 and 0.9777. Above that resistance shows in the 0.9885/97 region, at 0.9911, 0.9966 and in the 0.9974/1.0057 congestion region around the key psychological 1.0000 level. Initial support for the rate shows up at 0.9536, 0.9512/19, in the key 0.9448/53 region and at the long term low of 0.9056 that lies just ahead of psychological support at 0.9000.

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• CAD/USD

EUR: This week’s Eurozone economic calendar is about as active as last week, and it will feature the German and EZ ZEW Economic Sentiment surveys due out on Monday. Tuesday - German ZEW Economic Sentiment (-11.4), and EZ ZEW Economic Sentiment (-7.4). Wednesday - German PPI (0.1%), and EZ Consumer Confidence (-10). Thursday - French Flash Manufacturing PMI (52.6), French Flash Services PMI (56.4), German Flash Manufacturing PMI (54.1), German Flash Services PMI (56.1), EZ Flash Manufacturing PMI (51.6), EZ Flash Services PMI (53.2) and the EZ Current Account (-4.7B). Friday - German Ifo Business Climate (113.7), Italian Retail Sales (0.3%), and EZ Industrial New Orders (0.7%). Technical Overview – Support for EUR/USD shows initially at 1.4115, 1.4095 and 1.4091. Below that support shows at 1.4073, 1.4048 and 1.3969, and then in the 1.3703/23, 1.3524/45 and 1.3420/98 regions. Resistance to the topside is seen initially in the 1.4178/98 region, at 1.4258 and 1.4281. Above that resistance shows in the 1.4373/96 region, at 1.4465, in the 1.4537/52 region, at 1.4576, in the 1.4642/56 region, at 1.4695, 1.4881, 1.4939 and 1.5144.

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• EUR/USD

GBP: This week’s U.K. economic calendar is considerably quieter than last week, and it will feature the important MPC Meeting Minutes due out Wednesday. Monday - Rightmove HPI (-1.6%). Wednesday - MPC Meeting Minutes (2-0-7). Thursday - Nationwide Consumer Confidence (51), Public Sector Net Borrowing (11.7B), and Retail Sales (0.5%). Technical Overview – Resistance to the topside for GBP/USD shows initially at 1.6163/73, 1.6192, and above that in the 1.6213/85 region, at 1.6315, 1.6382, in the 1.6440/94, 1.6542/98 and 1.6720/1.6744 regions, at 1.6876 and at 1.7040. Support for the pair is indicated initially at 1.6110, 1.6086 and 1.6076 above the psychological 1.6000 level. Below that, support shows at 1.5990, 1.5972, in the 1.5910/30 region, at 1.5824, 1.5777 and 1.5750.

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• GBP/USD

JPY: This week’s Japanese economic calendar is much quieter than last week, and it will feature the Japanese Trade Balance data out on Thursday. Monday – Japanese Bank Holiday Thursday - Trade Balance (-0.25T), and All Industries Activity (1.9%). Technical Overview – Resistance for USD/JPY currently shows up initially at 79.26, 79.56/9 and 79.85, at the psychological 80.00 level, and then at 80.82, 81.34, and at 81.76. Above that, resistance appears in the 82.01/22 region, at 82.77, 83.09 and 83.77. Initial support for the rate is seen at 79.96/8, 79.69, 79.56, 78.88, and at 78.45/6. Below that, support shows at 78.24 and 76.41.

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• JPY/USD

NZD: This week’s New Zealand economic calendar is a bit less active than last week, and it will feature the important NZ CPI data due out on Monday. Monday - CPI (0.8%). Thursday - Visitor Arrivals (last -0.3%), and Credit Card Spending (last 5.1%). Technical Overview – Support for NZD/USD is now seen initially on the charts at 0.8444/9, at 0.8411, 0.8393, 0.8379, in the 0.8317/41 region, at 0.8273, in the 0.8213/51 region, at 0.8172, in the 0.8072/93 region, and in the 0.8007/44 region above the psychological 0.8000 level. Below that, support is noted at 0.7971, 0.7900, in the 0.7816/58 region, at 0.7744 and 0.7668, and in the 0.7580/82 region ahead of the psychological 0.7500 level. Resistance shows up initially at 0.8478, and at 0.8504 just above psychological resistance at the 0.8500 level. Additional psychological resistance is probably at the 0.9000 level.

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• NZD/USD

USD: This week’s U.S. economic calendar is considerably quieter than last week, and it will feature important housing market numbers coming out Monday through Thursday. Monday - TIC Long-Term Purchases (48.4B), and the NAHB Housing Market Index (15). Tuesday - Building Permits (0.61M), and Housing Starts (0.58M). Wednesday - Existing Home Sales (4.93M), and Crude Oil Inventories (last -3.1M). Thursday – Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (408K), Fed Chairman Bernanke testifies, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (3.4), CB Leading Index (0.2%), OFHEO HPI (0.4%), and Natural Gas Storage (last 84B).

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