Daily Forex Commentary

Wednesday, 8 February 2012 - Market Commentary

Australian Dollar:

The Australian Dollar rallied to its highest level in six months versus its US Counterpart after the Reserve Bank of Australia surprised markets, keeping the official cash rate unchanged at 4.25 percent. With the majority of commentators expecting a rate cut, the Aussie Dollar rallied hard for much of the afternoon session reaching an eventual high of 1.0822 against its US Counterpart. Reserve Bank Governor Glenn Stevens went further in a statement to say that global sentiment had generally improved in December with growth remaining close to trend and inflation close to target. This morning sees the Australian Dollar open noticeably higher after an overall positive session currently trading at a rate of 1.0782 against the Greenback.

We expect a range today of 1.0720 – 1.08210

New Zealand Dollar:

In what was a relatively flat session for the New Zealand Dollar yesterday the Kiwi has remained range bound for much of the past 24 hours trading between a low of 0.8313 and a high of 0.8372 against its US Counterpart. Throughout the domestic session local equity markets and commodities prices offered very little support for the kiwi with Investors unwilling to take the kiwi through its next resistant level around 83.80 US Cents. In overnight events markets remained edgy ahead of ongoing Greek debt talks, with Greek PM Lucas Papademos set to finalise a new accord agreeing to bailout conditions this evening. Whilst Greece has dominated the headlines there remains overall greater optimism as the New Zealand Dollar opens at a very similar level to where we left it yesterday currently swapping hands a rate of 0.8348

We expect a range today of 0.8310 – 0.8380

Great British Pound

UK Stocks were little changed overnight as investors wait nervously for Greek politicians to agree on spending cuts to help ensure the Nation receive its next stage of financial aid. In what has been dominating headlines for the past 12 months, overall the mood remains positive that an adequate outcome will be announced this evening. Despite the Sterling again taking the majority of its direction out of Europe, the Great British Pound has managed to find some upside over the past 24 hours trading between a range of (1.5787 – 1.5903) against its US Counterpart, opening stronger this morning at a rate of 1.5890. Looking ahead this week the major risk event for the Sterling occurs overnight Thursday where the Bank of England is set to meet to discuss the Nations current Monetary Policy Stance.

We expect a range today of 1.4680 – 1.4790

Majors:

The Dow Jones finished around 0.15 of a percent stronger overnight with the Industrial Average closing at its highest level since May 2008. Helping improve global sentiment overnight Greece moved closer to reaching an agreement to secure international aid with Greek PM Lucas Papademos likely to sign an accord this evening. In further signs conditions throughout the 17-Nation region are improving, the EURO has managed to find some solid ground up above the 1.32 handle trading as high as 1.3269 over the course of the last 24-hours. Meanwhile in the US overnight the bearish stance of the Federal Reserve has also been maintained with Chairman Ben S Bernanke reiterating that long-term employment remains a major concern for the world’s largest economy. Despite the strong GDP and employment results which have been filtering through over the previous quarter Bernanke’s has confirmed that their still remains a long way to go before labour markets begin to start operating normally. In what proved to a busy session for global markets, similar the EURO the Greenback also managed to find some solid support opening stronger against the Japanese Yen at rate of 76.741.

Data releases

AUD: No Data Today

NZD: No Data Today

JPY:  Bank Lending y/y, Current Account

GBP: BRC Shop Price Index y/y

EUR: German Trade Balance, French Gov Budget Balance

USD: FOMC Member William Speaks

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